147
FXUS61 KCAR 240808
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
408 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will build southwest of the area
today. A cold front will cross the region tonight. High pressure
will build across the region Wednesday into Friday. Low pressure
will cross the region on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
First area of showers moved through nrn areas around midnight with
next area of convection moving through at this time. Still seeing
some lightning strikes over the North Woods but intensity has
markedly lowered from when storms were over Quebec. Expect this area
will move through within the next hour with an isolated lightning
strike still possible.

Surface low will continue to move northeast today with CWA remaining
in the warm sector. Temps have been able to lower into the mid-60s
over sern areas with most areas north of I95 corridor still in the
70s due to clouds and warm advection keeping temps elevated.

Big question for today is what impact will approaching weak cold
front have on convective development. Hires and deterministic
guidance are not as impressive with storms moving thru as they have
been. Bufkit guidance continues to hint at capping inversion over
nrn zones and have removed showers and storms from areas north of
Katahdin. Most of the guidance is now focused on convection moving
out of srn Quebec and into the wrn Maine mountains, possibly
dropping into the Central Highlands and into the Bangor Region.

S/wv present over nrn Michigan will be rounding the top of the ridge
this morning and this afternoon and, with ridge beginning to
flatten, thinking that this will likely result in tstm development
further south than previously thinking. However, this does not
account for any boundaries from earlier convection that may be
present across the north.

In addition to the convective threat will be the hot and humid
airmass. Temps will easily climb into the 90s almost area-wide with
the exception of the outer islands and the immediate shoreline.
Dewpoints climbing into the 70s will produce heat index values over
105 degree for the Bangor Region into interior Downeast and Extreme
Heat Warning continues for today. Heat Advisories posted either side
of this area. Remember to limit outside activities from late this
morning and into the afternoon hours and stay plenty hydrated.

Front moves through overnight bringing clearing skies, lower
dewpoints and cooler temperatures to the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday...Much drier and airmass works in Wednesday from the
NW. Highs will be a lot cooler in the north where the cooler
airmass arrives first, with highs in the north only around 70.
Downeast, look for mid to upper 80s, but with an increasing NW
breeze and falling dewpoints, it won`t feel nearly as bad as
Tuesday. By late in the day, dewpoints will be in the low 40s
north and around 50 Downeast. Went a bit below NBM`s dewpoints
because of expected good mixing. No showers expected Wednesday,
and skies will be sunny/mostly sunny.

Wednesday Night...High pressure builds in from the NW, and with
decoupling expected for most areas, especially N/NW, will be
pleasantly cool with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s north and
low to mid 50s Downeast. Went a bit cooler than NBM for low
temperatures.

Thursday...
Another nice day Thursday, though perhaps a few more clouds than
Wednesday with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs in the
low to mid 70s with low humidity. Again, went a bit lower than
NBM for afternoon dewpoints due to good mixing...with afternoon
dewpoints in the low to mid 40s. No showers expected thanks to
very dry airmass.

Thursday Night...
A bit of uncertainty with cloud cover Thursday night, with
clouds perhaps making it up into southern portions of the
forecast area. The north still looks mostly clear. Can`t totally
rule out some rain from Bangor south as a system passes to our
south, but this is an outside shot, and going with PoPs only
around 10 percent. Lows in the 40s north and low 50s Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure moves east of the area late Friday, and moisture
increases from the west Friday night and Saturday, as do rain
chances with a weak shortwave trough moving from west to east
through the region. The best rain chances appear to be during
the day Saturday and into Saturday evening, with PoPs 45 to 65
percent, highest central and Downeast. Can`t rule out a few
storms, but in general this looks more like a stable rain event.
Cooler with the rain Saturday, and just how cool depends on how
much rain. Highs probably will be in the 60s for most areas
Saturday.

Sunday looks drier than Saturday and a little warmer, but not
totally dry, as there will still be a slight chance or chance of
showers.

Heading into Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will likely return
to warmer than average levels, but very unlikely as warm as
today. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s seem like the safest
bet. Dewpoints also creep into in the low to mid 60s
Monday/Tuesday, with increasing shower/thunderstorm chances as
well. Interestingly, NBM PotThunder didn`t have any values above
15 percent, but raised them a bit to get some thunder into the
forecast. Overall precip chances look to be 15-40 percent Monday
and 40-70 Tuesday, with the higher values Tuesday being
associated with an incoming weak cold front and approaching
upper trough.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BHB may see FEW003 clouds early but remain VFR next
24 hours. BGR may diminish to MVFR in BCFG between 07-11z this
morning before improving.

FVE may see an area of storms move in between 08-10z with brief
MVFR restrictions. Otherwise Aroostook terminals to see VFR next
24 hours. Confidence is very low on chances for tstms this
afternoon and have not included with this set of TAFS.

Aroostook terminals expected to see LLWS at FL020 from 27030kt
through 10z this morning. All terminals will see W winds gusting
to 20kts this afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday through Friday...High confidence in VFR. NW winds 10
to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots Wednesday, then becoming
light later Wednesday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots
Thursday through Friday.

Friday night..VFR early. MVFR/IFR late with a chance of showers or
rain. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR with rain possible. South/southeast winds
10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft levels today
and tonight. Patchy fog over the waters looks to develop
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds likely below small craft through the weekend.
However, seas could reach 5 feet (small craft) Saturday night
and Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record highs possible today, June 24th:

Site              Forecast    Record

Caribou           89          93 (1995)
Houlton           92          92 (1995)
Millinocket       93          97 (1912)
Bangor            97          93 (1995)

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MEZ005-006-011-029>032.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for MEZ015>017.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Buster/Foisy
Marine...Buster/Foisy
Climate...Buster