165
FXUS61 KCAR 090047
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
847 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly exits to the south and east through
tonight. A warm front crosses the area on Saturday. High
pressure centered east of Nova Scotia will then ridge back
across the region into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
845PM Update: Issued a beach hazard statement for the coast for
Saturday. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks good.

Previous Discussion...
Today, high pressure continues to slide east into the Atlantic.
Canadian wildfire smoke lets up in northern Maine this
afternoon, but there is additional smoke off to the west that
should settle up over Maine tonight into Saturday. Forecast to
move in over central and northern Maine, but models continue to
indicate that majority of it will stay aloft. Could keep
temperatures steady by acting as a cirrus shield tonight.
Overnight lows in the upper-50s. Winds become light and variable.
Potential for some more fog in the river valleys tonight into
Saturday morning, reducing visibility.

Saturday, high pressure continues to move east into the
Atlantic. Mid-level shortwaves move through Maine, which
alongside some moisture advection could bring a few rain
showers, predominantly in the western and northern portions of
Maine. CAPE values do increase, mostly in the north, but lapse
rates and shear parameters are not impressive. Shortwave
forcing could help get things moving, but diurnal heating may be
inhibited with wildfire smoke acting as a cirrus shield. Might
be some thunder rumbles with these storms, but very low
confidence in sturdy storm development with the given
mesoanalysis. Rain chances begin to decrease overnight on
Saturday, and overnight lows in the upper-50s to low-60s. Could
be some fog over the coast and waters Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will exit east of Nova Scotia Sunday through Monday
night, while ridging back across the Gulf of Maine. Aloft, upper
level ridging will remain across the region. Precipitable water
values will increase to 1.50 to 1.75 inches Sunday with the return
flow around high pressure. Generally expect partly cloudy skies
north, mostly clear/partly cloudy Downeast, Sunday through Sunday
night. However, with the increasing moisture and warming
temperatures could also have enough diurnal instability to support
the possibility of an afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm
across mostly the north and mountains Sunday. Convection should then
diminish Sunday night. Generally expect mostly clear/partly cloudy
skies Monday. However, enough diurnal instability could develop to
support a slight chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms across
mostly central and northern portions of the forecast area. Any
convection should then diminish again Monday night. Temperatures
will be at above normal levels Sunday/Monday. Apparent temperatures
could approach Heat Advisory levels across portions of the region
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A series of weak cold fronts/trofs are possible through mid-week,
with a more significant cold front possible late week. However,
timing differences with these various features still exist.
These features, along with diurnal instability, will help
support shower/thunderstorm possibilities Tuesday through
Friday. However, the extent and location of any
showers/thunderstorms remains uncertain. Much of the
shower/thunderstorm activity should be at least in part
diurnally driven, tending to decrease overnight. Temperatures
will be at above normal levels Tuesday through Thursday. The
warmest temperatures will occur Tuesday, with apparent
temperatures again possibly approaching Heat Advisory levels
across portions of the region. Temperatures gradually cool
Wednesday/Thursday, returning to near normal levels Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR conditions this evening. Some Canadian
wildfire smoke in the upper-levels at northern terminals tonight
into Saturday, but it is not expected to make it to the surface.
Light and variable winds tonight. Winds become SW Saturday
around 5-10 kts, with KFVE potentially getting some gusts up to
20kts in the afternoon. Potential for some more fog around KPQI
Saturday morning. Slight chance of some rain showers in the far
north Saturday afternoon, predominantly KFVE.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR conditions this evening. S/SW winds this
afternoon around 10-15kts. Winds become light and variable
tonight, and then become SW Saturday at 10-15kts. Could be some
gusts up to 20kts.

SHORT TERM:

Sunday through Sunday night...Variable conditions with any patchy
overnight fog. Slight chance of an afternoon or evening
shower/thunderstorm across mostly the north and mountains.
Otherwise, VFR. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Monday through Monday night...Variable conditions with any patchy
overnight fog. Slight chance of an afternoon or evening shower or
thunderstorm. Otherwise, VFR. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Slight chance/chance of an afternoon or
evening shower/thunderstorm. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to
10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory
conditions up until this weekend. Seas generally 2 ft or below
over all waters. Winds generally from the S/SW at 5-10kts, with
some gusts up to 15kts possible. Beach Hazard statement in effect
for cold waters this weekend. Slight chance for some pop up
showers Saturday night.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday
through Monday night. Patchy fog possible Sunday through Monday
night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Saturday through
     Saturday evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan/LaFlash
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Brennan/LaFlash/Norcross
Marine...Brennan/LaFlash/Norcross