603
FXUS61 KCAR 071749
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
149 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Increasing confidence in rain and gusty winds Wednesday night
  and Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chilly overnight Tuesday night. Slight chance for frost in
the north.

2) Rain chances remain limited through midweek, accompanied by
near to below normal temperatures. The next best chance for
precipitation arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Chilly overnight Tuesday night. Slight chance
for frost in the north.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Cool airmass moves over northern Maine Tuesday night. There is
a chance for atmospheric decoupling early in the night, as skies
clear out. This will help temperatures to drop into the 30s.
Potential for northern areas in northern Aroostook to drop into
the low-to-mid 30s, which could lead to some frost development.
Frost chances are going to be highly dependent on the timing of
some high level clouds moving in late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. If the clouds move in earlier in the night,
temperatures will stabilize faster. If clouds move in slower,
then there is more time for the temperatures to drop with clear
skies.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances remain limited through midweek,
accompanied by near to below normal temperatures. The next best
chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure system begins to approach from the northwest in
Canada, tracking eastward and passing over Maine Wednesday night
into Thursday. Rain moves in from the west Wednesday night, and
continues to track east until it leaves the region Thursday
night. Global models are predicting PWATs around 1.8-1.9 inches,
which would be well over the 90th percentile and potentially
over the daily max PWAT record in Caribou. There will be plenty
of dry air that this system will need to overcome Wednesday
night. Models hinting at generally a widespread 0.5 inches of
rainfall, with a chance for isolated areas of higher rainfall.

Not anticipating much in terms of convection with this rain
system, with relatively low CAPE, shear, and lapse rates. Chance
for a low level jet to move over the region along with the
associated occluding front, which could bring gusty winds along
the Downeast coast and over the waters. Warm occlusion ahead of
the cold front brings warmer temperatures into the Central
Highlands, Bangor, and Downeast regions on Thursday, in the
upper-70s to low-80s with dew points in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Today...VFR. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up
to around 20 knots.

Tonight...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR with isolated to scattered
showers overnight moving from north to south. West/northwest
winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday...Isolated showers possible central and Downeast areas
early morning, moving from north to south. VFR/MVFR early.
Otherwise, VFR. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts
up to around 20 knots.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR overnight into the morning,
MVFR/IFR in the evening as rain moves in from the west. Light
winds Tuesday night, becoming S winds 5-15 kts on Wednesday.

Wednesday night-Thursday...MVFR/IFR for cigs/vsby due to rain
and potential fog. S winds 10-15 kts Wednesday night, then
shifting to W winds on Thursday 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 30
kts Wednesday night and Thursday.

Thursday night-Friday...VFR. W winds Thursday night, becoming
NW on Friday at 5-15kts. Gusts to 25kt possible Friday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through
Wednesday. Isolated showers possible late tonight through early
Tuesday. By Wednesday night, winds should increase to SCA
levels in the coastal, and possibly intercoastal, waters.
Potential for gales in the outer waters. Seas expected to reach
6-10 ft in the coastal waters and 9-11 ft in the outer waters.
By Thursday evening/night, winds and seas should decrease in the
afternoon below SCA. Seas fall below 5ft Friday. Rain possible
Wednesday night into Thursday evening. N winds Tuesday night,
becoming S/SE on Wednesday, and SW by Thursday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMM
AVIATION...JMM