650
FXUS61 KCAR 221425
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
925 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift toward the region today into Saturday,
then exit across the Maritimes Sunday. High pressure builds
toward the region Monday. Low pressure approaches from the west
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
925AM Update: No major changes to the forecast for this update.
Will keep an eye on the waters for changes in winds and waves.

Previous Discussion...
Vertically stacked surface/upper level low pressure will remain
across the Mid-Atlantic region today. Energy rotating around
the upper low will help support the development of a new low
east of New England. The new low will lift toward Nova Scotia
tonight, while the vertically stacked system drifts east. An
area of rain will lift north across the forecast area today.
Could also have patchy fog this morning, mostly Downeast.
Northeast/east winds will gust to 25 to 30 mph today. Rain
chances should briefly diminish early tonight, along with patchy
drizzle. Another area of rain lifting north with the new low
approaching Nova Scotia will then expand across the region
overnight with rain chances again increasing. High temperatures
today will range from around 40 to the lower 40s north, to the
mid to upper 40s Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range
from the mid to upper 30s north, to around 40 Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB low moves northeast toward Nova Scotia by late day
Saturday. It is then forecast to slowly rotate across the
Canadian Maritimes Saturday night into Sunday. Weak areas of low
pressure are expected to rotate across the Canadian Maritimes
around the upper low through early Sunday before slowly tracking
east of Nova Scotia east later Sunday afternoon.

Moisture will continue to increase across the region during Saturday
as Atlantic moisture wraps westward around the surface/upper
level lows. Expect rain to continue during much of the day
Saturday. The pressure gradient remains rather tight between the
Maritimes low and high pressure across Labrador. This will
result in a continued brisk and gusty north to northeast wind
across the region on Saturday. Thus, trimmed a couple degrees
off the NBM numbers for highs. Expect highs across the north not
to rise much above the upper 30 to around the 40 degrees, with
low to mid 40s elsewhere.

Saturday night models indicate the deeper moisture begins to exit to
the east with precipitation becoming more showery for the
Bangor region and Downeast areas. However, moisture will
continue to wrap back across northern areas around the Maritimes
low. Critical thickness values suggest it should be cold enough
for rain to transition to snow across northern areas,
especially the higher terrain. Some accumulation is likley
Saturday night north of the Katahdin region, with an inch or two
accumulation not out of the question. A few snow showers will
be possible all the way down to the coast by daybreak Sunday.

The surface and upper level lows continue to slowly exit east of the
Canadian Maritimes during Sunday. Expect continued mainly
cloudy skies, with scattered snow and rain showers expected,
mainly across northern areas. Afternoon highs are expected to be
close to normal in the upper 30s across the north and lower 40s
for the Bangor region and Downeast. But the gusty northwest
wind will make it feel a bit cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night and Monday the Canadian Maritimes low finally moves
east. Still could be a few lingering snow showers across the north
through Sunday evening, otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy
skies Sunday night.

On Monday, brief ridging both at the surface and aloft will
bring dry weather with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Low pressure from the Great Lakes region moves east Monday night
with increasing clouds. This system crosses the region on Tuesday
with the chance for rain or snow. Drier conditions are expected on
Wednesday behind that system.

At the moment, the forecast for Thanksgiving Day is somewhat
uncertain. Longer range guidance does suggest the potential for a
storm developing somewhere along the east coast for the latter half
of the Thanksgiving week. This could have impacts on the
weather across our area during the second half of the upcoming
Holiday week. If you have travel plans, please continue to
monitor the latest forecasts. Afternoon highs will be close to
normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally MVFR/IFR conditions expected across the
region today through tonight, though local LIFR conditions also
possible tonight. Rain today through tonight. Northeast/east
winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts 25 to 30 knots, decreasing to 10
to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots today. Northeast/north
winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots tonight. Easterly
low level wind shear across northern areas this morning into
early afternoon, and across Downeast areas this morning.
Northeasterly low level wind shear could then begin to develop
again Downeast late tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday...Widespread MVFR/IFR. Rain. N to NE wind 15 to 25 kt with
G35kt.

Saturday night....MVFR/IFR at the Aroostook terminals in -SN/-RASN,
MVFR/VFR for KBGR/KBHB. Gusty N to NW wind.

Sunday...MVFR/VFR. Scattered -SHSN north. Gusty NW wind.

Sunday night through Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...MVFR or lower in rain or snow.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have cancelled the Gale Warning and replaced with a
Small Craft Advisory in effect through 7 PM for much of the
waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters. A
Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the intra-coastal waters
through 11 AM this morning. Rain and patchy fog today through
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected Saturday.
Gale force wind gusts are possible Saturday night through
Sunday night. Conditions should decrease below small craft
levels Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-
     051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/Norcross
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...LaFlash/Norcross/TWD
Marine...LaFlash/Norcross/TWD