253
FXUS61 KCAR 250805
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
305 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move away through the Maritimes today. High
pressure will crest over the area tonight. Low pressure will track
into Quebec Tuesday into Tuesday night as weak secondary low
pressure forms along the coast. High pressure will build south of
the area Wednesday. Low pressure will approach on Thursday and track
off the coast early Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
West-northwest winds continue to gust tonight and will likely
continue into the afternoon before skinny ridge of high
pressure builds in from the west. Cloudy skies are bringing snow
showers to the north early this morning and are forecast to
diminishing around daybreak with last vort max mvg thru the
area. Cloudy skies are expected acrs the north through tonight
with Downeast areas clearing out under downsloping winds this
afternoon. High temps will be similar to yda/s/s highs with
very little change in airmass.

For tonight winds will drop to near calm around midnight as
ridge crests over the area. Low temps drop into the middle 20s
in the North Woods with locations to the east settling out just
below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A complex and active pattern is ahead for this Thanksgiving week.

Low pressure will track from Ontario into Quebec on Tuesday. An
occlusion will extend southeast of this low to a developing triple
point secondary low along the Maine coast late Tuesday. Rain ahead
of this low, and snow over western and far northern areas, will
spread into the region Tuesday afternoon. Some snow accumulation is
likely over the higher elevations to the west and north. The
forecast becomes a little challenging Tuesday evening as the
secondary low tracks along the Downeast coast. Thicknesses across
the populated eastern part of the north may drop to near critical
levels for precipitation to change over to wet snow. The NAM is
coming in a little cooler suggesting a change-over to snow
while the GFS keeps thicknesses warm enough for rain. Best
estimate at this time is that rain changes over to wet snow with
a light slushy accumulation in the hills and little or no
accumulation in the warmer valleys.

Rain Downeast and a mix of rain and slushy snow north will end
Tuesday evening as the occlusion quickly continues east into the
Maritimes and drier air surges in from the southwest. Lows by
early Wednesday morning will be near freezing possibly resulting
in some slippery spots. Wednesday will remain mostly cloudy
over the north and turn out mostly sunny Downeast. There will be
a gusty west to southwesterly breeze as low pressure
consolidates to the north and high pressure builds to our south.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Our attention Wednesday night turns to a new low developing in the
Tennessee Valley which is expected to rapidly move east to a
position over the Appalachians by Thursday morning. From there, the
track still remains largely uncertain. Our dominant long range
models, the ECMWF and the GFS, differ very significantly and remain
stubbornly persistent in their differing solutions. The ECMWF
tracks the low up along the Maine coast offering the potential
for a significant and perhaps major snowfall over Northern
Maine. The GFS, however, continues to insist on a flatter open
wave sliding the low to our south and well out to sea on Friday.
The GFS, however, does show a weak low hanging back along the
Maine coast Saturday morning which could bring a period of snow
mainly to eastern areas on Saturday. It appears that the main
difference between these two models is that the ECMWF
consolidates all the energy with the coastal low while the GFS
carries much of the energy out to sea with less energy remaining
back for the coastal low. At least some snow appears likely
across the area with the coastal low. A surface trough hangs
back from this low across our region and connects to a surface
trough extending down from the Canadian low which could provide
focus for at least some additional light snow Saturday morning.
Will keep snow likely in the forecast with amounts still very
uncertain given the storm track uncertainty at this time.

Snow across eastern areas, whether it be the ECMWF`s heavy snow or
the GFS`s lighter snow, will taper off Saturday evening as the
coastal low consolidates and moves away to the east. A deep upper
trough will remain over the area with the old low still in Western
Quebec. This will bring a mostly cloudy sky to central and northern
areas Sunday with a partly sunny sky Downeast. Sunday will be cold
with highs only in the upper 20s north to the mid 30s Downeast. No
major systems are sighted for early next week although moisture
lingering in the trough will likely result in some snow showers
being scattered across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR over Aroostook terminals next 24 hours in low
cigs. MVFR vsbys in -shsn should only last another 2-3 hours
across northern sites. Downeast terminals will see VFR through
tonight.

NW winds will remain gusty to near 20kts before diminishing this
evening. LLWS at FL020 at CAR, PQI and HUL this morning from the
NW at 35-40kts. LLWS comes to an end by 10z at CAR and PQI with
HUL continuing until around 14z.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday...VFR during the morning, lowering to MVFR then IFR in the
afternoon. SE winds.

Tuesday night...IFR, improving to VFR south and MVFR north. SE wind
becoming SW.

Wednesday...MVFR north. VFR south. Gusty WSW wind.

Wednesday night...MVFR north. VFR south. WSW wind.

Thursday...VFR. Light WSW wind.

Thursday night...VFR dropping to MVFR north and IFR south. NE wind.

Friday...IFR to MVFR. N wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale force winds continue for the next 3-4 hours over
the outer waters before diminishing below 35kts. Will likely
transition to SCA with seas remaining above 5ft until this
evening. Intracoastal waters remain above small craft levels
through 18z this afternoon before dropping below. Waters will be
well below SCA levels tonight.

SHORT TERM:
A SCA will likely be needed Tuesday night into Wednesday night
for gusty W winds up to 25 kt. A SCA may be needed again
Thursday night into Sunday for winds gusting up to 25 kt.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Buster/Bloomer
Marine...Buster/Bloomer