977
FXUS61 KCAR 060153
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
953 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the region tonight. The front will stall
across the Gulf of Maine tonight into Friday. Low pressure will
cross the area Saturday followed by high pressure on Sunday. An
upper level low will set up to the west of Maine for Monday
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Update...
Weak boundary will continue to sink down across the area
overnight and is just about to the Bangor region. Latest radar
reflectivity imagery shows just some isolated showers and
thunderstorms moving east along the boundary across interior
Downeast areas at this hour. These will wane over the next few
hours. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with some
patchy fog overnight. Lows will range from the mid 50s across
the north and upper 50s to lower 60s for the bangor region.

previous discussion
Front that just passed through Maine is going to stall in the
Atlantic, as a low pressure develops to our NW. Looking at some
clear skies in the north, with some haze, until clouds move back
over the region by afternoon. Some shortwave activity in the
Penobscot/Bangor and Downeast region will cause some light rain
showers. Max temperatures in the upper 70s tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Zonal flow will be shifting to a more swrly flow as upr trof digs
into Quebec. Boundary will be sitting over the area with waves
riding along it. At this time it appears the best chance for rain
will be late Friday night into Saturday morning. Med range guidance,
including the latest GFS/CMC and EC, has cold front dropping south
out of Canada in the afternoon. Cannot rule out tstms in warm and
humid airmass ahead of the front and will continue with this idea.

Latest NAM on the other hand appears to be suffering from convective
feedback as tightly wound low heading off of the Delmarva Saturday
evening is impacting fropa, including keeping showers in longer and
winds out of the northeast. Have disregarded this solution as
majority of operational and ensemble model solutions do not show
this.

Showers will wind down Saturday evening, pulling east into New
Brunswick by Sunday morning. Skies will be clearing after midnight
with lows dipping into the 40s over the North Woods with locations
elsewhere dropping into the lower 40s. High pressure will keep sunny
conditions over the area on Sunday with highs around to slightly
above normal in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region into early next week.
Cannot rule out an isolated shower moving in Monday afternoon but
depending on the strength of the ridge and the slow movement of
the digging upper low, precip may hold off until Tuesday
morning.

System looks to move fairly quickly as wave opens up aloft and zips
through on Tuesday evening, though given discrepancies have gone
with likely pops thru the day Wednesday. Showers look to continue in
wrap-around northwest flow thru the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: Mainly VFR through Friday. There could be
some patchy fog vicinity Houlton tonight with locally IFR
visibility at times. Light N wind tonight, then N to NE 5 to 10
kt Friday.

KBGR/KBHB: Mainly VFR through Friday. There could be some patchy
fog vicinity KBGR tonight with locally IFR visibility at times.
S wind 5 to 10 kt this evening, then becoming N to NE later
tonight and Friday.

SHORT TERM:
Friday night-Saturday...MVFR/IFR in rain and possible storms in the
afternoon. SSE 5kts becoming W-SW 5-10kts in the afternoon.

Saturday night...MVFR improving to IFR late with showers ending. NW
5-10kts.

Sunday-Monday...Mainly VFR. NW 5-10kts, light Sunday night, then SE
5-10kts Monday.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR/MVFR dropping to IFR late Monday night
in showers. S 5-10kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below Small Craft conditions
overnight into tomorrow. Seas at or below 3ft over the waters.
Winds from the S, becoming E/SE tomorrow. Potential for some
patchy fog overnight. More rain showers begin tomorrow, and
continue through the weekend.

SHORT TERM: Winds remain below sca levels into early next week. Seas
climb above 5ft over the outer waters Sunday afternoon into the
evening hours in southerly swell.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Millinocket reached 90 degrees this afternoon and that tied the
record for this date last set in 1967.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan/TWD
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Brennan/TWD/Buster
Marine...Brennan/TWD/Buster
Climate...