Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
623 FXUS61 KCAR 271952 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 352 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Decreasing confidence in thunder potential late week. Instabilty is decreasing. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather with warmer than average temperatures through Tuesday. 2) A system is likely to move in later in the week, bringing another round of wetting rainfall into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry weather with warmer than average temperatures through Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will remain to the east of the region. Due to the center of the high far off to the east, strong enough subsidence will keep the region dry with the exception of a few showers and storms along the Quebec border this and tomorrow afternoon. In addition, winds will remain fairly weak. Temperatures will remain warmer than average with upper 70s to mid 80s Tuesday. Patchy valley fog again tonight, with perhaps a bit more fog especially near the coast Tuesday night as southerly marine flow begins to increase ahead of the next system. KEY MESSAGE 2...A system is likely to move in later in the week, bringing another round of wetting rainfall into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system stalls over the Northeast, eventually moving east late week. Low will hopefully be over the Gulf of Maine by Wednesday night into Friday. Wetting rainfall expected, with higher totals along Downeast, as early as Wednesday night or Thursday. Granted, this system has been on a constant delay, since models are struggling to resolve when the system will eventually move east. Potential for 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall. There is some potential for a thunderstorm along the frontal boundary, but instability is minimal. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Rest of Today...VFR. S/SE wind 5-10 kts. Tonight-Tuesday...VFR. Small chance of fog primarily at PQI later tonight and possibly BHB. Light and variable winds tonight, S winds 5-10 kts Tuesday. Tuesday night...Starting out VFR but becoming MVFR/IFR from south to north. S wind around 5 kts. Wednesday...VFR. SE winds at 5-10 kts. Wednesday night-Friday...Decreasing to MVFR Wednesday night, possible IFR in showers/T-storms Thursday. Rain overnight on Thursday, and T-storms possible again on Friday. Fog at KBHB/KBGR/KHUL. Winds shift E/NE by Thursday, and shift N/NE by Friday. Gusts to 15-20 mph possible during the afternoon on Thursday. Friday night-Saturday...MVFR with rain showers. Calm winds becoming variable during the day. && .MARINE... Quiet winds and seas through Tuesday night. Marine fog begins to increase Tuesday evening. Seas below SCA criteria Wednesday into the weekend. Seas around 3-4 ft. Outer waters could see 5 ft waves Thursday into Friday morning. Winds shift E Wednesday and Thursday, becoming NE on Friday. Potential for overnight fog Wednesday night. Rain moves in on Thursday, with a chance for thunder Thursday afternoon. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ASB/TF AVIATION...ASB/TF