374
FXUS61 KCAR 050322
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1122 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region overnight, then exit across
the Maritimes Saturday. Low pressure approaches from the west
Saturday night, then crosses the area on Sunday. Weak high
pressure noses down from Canada Sunday night and Monday. Low
pressure approaches from the west Monday night, crosses Maine on
Tuesday, then exits into the Maritimes Tuesday night. High
pressure builds in on Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
No changes to the Winter Weather Advisories. High pressure will
build across the region overnight. Generally expect mostly clear
skies across much of the forecast area overnight. However,
moisture from the Saint Lawrence River is supporting clouds
which are extending into northern Aroostook county where partly
cloudy/mostly clear skies will occur overnight. Winds will
diminish overnight with building high pressure. Low temperatures
will range from the lower to mid 20s north, to the upper 20s to
around 30 Downeast. Have updated to adjust for current
conditions along with expected overnight clouds and
temperatures.

Previous Discussion...
By Saturday, the high pressure will exit to the E as the next
occlusion approaches from the SW. Light and variable wind will
switch to SE by the afternoon and slowly start to increase. High
res models are in good agreement with the precip moving into
the area at a later time in the afternoon. Upper air models
soundings show low RH values throughout the column, making in
hard of the moisture to surge into the area. By late afternoon,
the precip will spread from SW to NE, mainly as snow. Precip
will begin to mix in the SE at this time in the form of sleet
and freezing rain.

By Saturday evening and early night, SE winds will increase,
causing the warmer onshore flow to surge into coastal Downeast.
By midnight, the warm air will get trapped by the CAD due to the
Central Highlands. By this time, the areas to the SE of the
Central Highlands will be mostly rain with some sleet mixing in.
The areas to the NW of the Central High lands will be mixed
precip with sleet and freezing rain in the North Woods, sleet
and snow in central/southern Aroostook and St John Valley. The
warm moist air trapped by the higher terrain will create patchy
to areas of fog in the south. After midnight and towards the
early Sunday morning hours, the warm onshore flow will increase
again, making for a breezy morning and changing the majority of
the mixed precip to rain. In addition, patchy to areas of fog
will develop in the north at that time.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A northern stream trough passes to the north Sunday. This will
bring precipitation, mainly in the form of rain/snow changing
to all rain across the north and all rain elsewhere in the
morning, to end from SW to NE as it tapers off to showers into
the afternoon. Little if any additional accumulation of ice
and/or snow is expected Sunday morning, so have refrained from
having any winter weather headlines during this time frame at
this time. There could be some wind gusts to 25-30 mph for
coastal Downeast on Sunday. Also patchy to areas of fog is
possible with the low level warm advection across Downeast Maine
and the Bangor/Penobscot Region Sunday morning.

Highs on Sunday should be near to slightly above normal.

The region is under WSW-SW flow aloft Sunday night and Monday.
For now a weak mid level shortwave should likely pass far
enough to the  south that any precipitation likely will stay
offshore. However, do have slight chance pops over coastal
Downeast Monday morning, as some isolated snow showers cannot be
ruled out at this point. Otherwise it should be dry Sunday night
and Monday, with minimal cloud cover away from the coast. Lows
Sunday night and highs on Monday should be within a few degrees
of either side of normal.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Northern stream shortwave ridging crosses the area Monday night,
with associated subsidence likely keeping things dry. Note, the
GFS, and some ensemble members, are weaker/more transitory with
the ridging Monday night, and would allow for some light
precipitation late Monday night. Do have slight chance pops late
to acknowledge this possibility.

A northern stream trough builds over northern New England
Tuesday, then exits to the east Tuesday night. This could bring
a period of snow across the North and rain/snow changing to snow
elsewhere Tuesday and Tuesday night. Noting there are
differences in the exact timing, strength, and track of this
system, it is too soon to specify what impacts, if any, this
system will have.

The region is under a broad northern stream trough Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Other than possibly some lingering snow along
the eastern border with Canada, the low levels should be too
dry to support any precipitation.

The region should be under zonal flow aloft giving way to
northern stream ridging building in on Thursday, so it should be
dry.

There is then quite a spread of model solutions for Thursday
night and Friday ranging from ridging building in to a northern
stream system approaching from the west. So just have gone with
slight chance pops at this time, as the vast majority of
solutions are dry.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR across the region overnight through most of
Saturday. MVFR/IFR conditions will then begin to develop later
Saturday afternoon with developing snow or a light wintry mix.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots, becoming
variable 5 to 10 knots late tonight. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots, becoming south/southeast 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
around 20 knots Saturday.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday night...IFR tempo LIFR in snow/sleet/freezing rain and
IFR cigs. LIFR vis in fog possible later in the night for BGR
and BHB. South winds 10 to 15 kt. LLWS likely.

Sunday...IFR or lower in the morning becoming VFR from SW to NE
into the afternoon. South winds 5 to 10 kt. LLWS possible Sunday
morning, NW winds G15-25KT possible in the afternoon.

Sunday night-Monday night...NW-N winds G15-20KT possible Sunday
evening.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...IFR or lower possible with snow North
and rain/snow changing to snow at southern terminals. LLWS
possible Tuesday, W-NW winds G15-25KT possible Tuesday night.

Wednesday...VFR, except for low chance of MVFR or lower early at
northeastern terminals in any lingering snow. W-WNW winds
G15-20KT possible.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for much of the
waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters, through
6 AM Saturday. On the intra-coastal waters, conditions below
small craft advisory levels tonight. Winds and seas will
decrease Saturday below SCA levels, then increase back to SCA
winds by the evening and remain through Saturday night.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions likely on all waters Sunday morning,
with a very low chance of gales on the coastal ocean waters.
Conditions should then become sub-SCA on all waters by Sunday
evening, then continue below SCA levels through at least Tuesday
morning. SCA conditions become possible on the coastal ocean
waters Tuesday afternoon, then probable on all waters Tuesday
night and Wednesday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for MEZ001-003>005-010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/LaFlash
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...Norcross/Maloit
Marine...Norcross/LaFlash/Maloit