267
FXUS61 KCAR 241931
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
331 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system is currently located in New Brunswick and
is expected to gradually weaken and move east across the
Maritimes through Sunday. A weak trough passes through the area
Monday afternoon. High pressure will build over the area
Tuesday into Wednesday then drift southeast of the area Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A vertically stacked low pressure system is currently positioned
in New Brunswick and moving slowly east across the Maritimes.
Ample moisture wrapping around the low is resulting in clouds
and showers lingering across much of northern and eastern Maine.
Showers will continue throughout the overnight hours, gradually
tapering off by the end of the day on Sunday. Some patchy fog is
possible tonight as winds remain light and the lower atmosphere
stays saturated. Temperatures should be slightly warmer Sunday,
reaching the 50s, especially if any breaks in the clouds occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

.Impactful Weather is not expected during this period.

Sun night into Mon AM the upper level low across the Maritimes
continues to slowly drift E. The upper level low will continue
to hold a little control on the weather but warming and drying
aloft will allow for some clearing Sun night. Expect a strong
boundary layer diurnal inversion and a cool morning Monday.
Patchy to areas of frost expected with lows 34-36F in the North
Woods, St. John Valley and places like Portage northward to
Eagle Lake. The frost/freeze program in these areas will not begin
till June 1st but anyone that is growing already should take
note. Elsewhere, lows will be 39-44F across the CWA. A weak
surface trough will approach from the north during the day and
with still a little cool air aloft expecting diurnal cu to
develop. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across
the northern 1/2 of the CWA in the afternoon. Highs top out in
the mid to upper 60s with light N winds. A weak afternoon
seabreeze develops at the shore in the area under the weak flow
cooling temperatures 5-10 degrees.

Monday night as the sun goes down expect skies to clear and
showers end. High pressure works in over the area with winds
turning west-northwest aloft. Weak NW wind allows for a mixing
day on Tuesday. Modeled sounding clusters continue to show solid
mixing up to 850mb. Winds are rather light aloft so not
expecting much more than 5-15mph. Temperatures will warm into
the low to mid 70s across the area. Weak afternoon seabreeze
along the immediate coast will cool things slightly. Afternoon
relative humidities will drop into the 25-35 percent range,
however with recent rains and green up not expecting any fire
weather concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

.Another cutoff low returns by late week into the weekend.

High pressure drifts overhead on Tuesday night then over the
area Wednesday and then drifts SE on Thursday. Much of this time
will be dry except the very end of the Thursday afternoon with
a few isolated rain showers as warm front lifts NE. Wed AM lows
in the mid to upper 40s north, upper 40s to near 50F south. Wed
highs in the upper 70s to near 80F for much of the area with
light W-NW winds. Seabreeze in the afternoon at the coast. Thu
AM lows 48-53F across the area. Partly sunny on Thu with highs
in the mid to upper 70s with increasing cloud cover. Sw winds
10-15mph will turn a little more S at the shore for a colder
seabreeze.

Friday-Saturday significant uncertainty with wide range of
timing and intensity of another storm system working into the
area. Ensembles favor this being unsettled weather period with
once again a cut off upper low and surface system. Rain chances
increase Thu night into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions persist through mid-day Sunday due to low
ceilings and rain showers that will gradually taper off. IFR
conditions possible tonight especially over HUL where rain showers
may be more persistent and FVE due to the higher elevation. IFR
conditions possible in patchy fog at other sites overnight as well
but confidence is lower. N/NW winds light tonight increasing to 5 to
10 kts Sunday with gusts up to 20 kts.


SHORT TERM: Mon...VFR. Brief MVFR cigs possible northern terms.
VCSH or -SHRA in the afternoon. N winds 5-10kt.

Tue-Wed...VFR. On Tue winds NW 5-10kt, afternoon SW winds 5-10kt
for BHB. Wed winds W-NW 5-15kt, afternoon WSW wind 10-15kt at
BHB.

Thu...VFR. S-SW winds 10-15kt. Afternoon VCSH at BGR and BHB.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA conditions tonight
and Sunday. Seas 2 to 4 ft with NW winds 5 to 15 kts and gusts
up to 20 kts.

SHORT TERM: Looking at below SCA conditions for Monday through
Thursday across the coastal waters. Winds generally less than
20kt. Seas generally 1-3ft for Monday through Wednesday. Seas
slowly build 2-4ft on Thursday and potentially higher late week.
Possible next SCA period late week with another storm system
approaching.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Melanson
Short Term...Sinko
Long Term...Sinko
Aviation...Melanson/Sinko
Marine...Melanson/Sinko