950
FXUS61 KCAR 040657
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
157 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track north and intensify through the Maritimes
today. High pressure will build south of the area tonight. A small
area of low pressure will approach on Wednesday and track along the
coast Wednesday night. High pressure will build south of the area
Thursday. A warm front will lift across the area Friday followed by
high pressure on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Before daybreak...Steady rain is working east across the eastern
1/3rd of the CWA this early morning. An intially cold front
boundary is pushing east and will allow for a wind shift to WSW
this morning before daybreak. Rain will taper to showers this
morning and become mainly concentrated across the north. WSW
winds will become gusty 15-25mph before daybreak. Temperatures
will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s across the north with
40s south.

Today, shortwave energy at 500mb will pivot through this morning
across daybreak and drift east mid morning. Surface low pressure
will begin to deepen over the Maritimes as the low tracks NE
along the Nova Scotian coastline. High pressure is building in
from the west and the synoptic pressure gradient will tighten
this morning as winds shift WNW. Today is setting up to be a
very gusty day. Hi-res modeled soundings combined with global
guidance continues to show a mixing height of 4-5kft across the
CWA today. Very good agreement to go above NBM to the NBM90th
percentile combined with understanding of local study guidance
in NW wind events. The winds at 4-5kft are in the 40-45kt range
and with good mixing down dry adiabatically expect much of those
winds to make it to the surface especially as skies turn mostly
sunny. Winds gusting 45-50mph across much of the CWA is why a
Wind Advisory is in effect from 7AM EST through 7PM EST today.
Strongest winds will be across the higher terrain of the
Longfellow Mtns including places like Greenville to Baxter SP
region. Winds aloft on the summit of Katahdin will approach
60mph today. Any isolated rain showers today will be mainly
confined to the northern and far eastern zones near New
Brunswick and some upslope showers including snow showers on the
summits above 3kft in Baxter SP.

Tonight, skies will be mostly clear and winds will relax as the
northern end of the surface ridge moves over the area. Gusts
will still be in the 15-20mph range much of the night but
relaxing less than 15mph by daybreak. 1026mb surface high
located over the Carolinas will drift to the east coast and
allow winds to slowly shift SW overnight. Temperatures will fall
back into the upper 20s to low 30s across the north and low to
mid 30s from the Central Highlands, Bangor Region to the
Downeast coastline. Upper 30s for the islands and immediate
shoreline.

On Wednesday a 500mb trof with an early season Alberta Clipper
surface low pressure will be tracking over the eastern Great
Lakes states. This is our next weather maker heading into the
short term with the fast moving flow over the northern tier of
the US. On the SW winds expecting highs to top out in the mid to
upper 40s across the area with 50F along the Downeast coast.
During the afternoon precipitation will develop as warm air
advects northward with increasing moisture. Mainly rain across
the area but cannot rule out some light snow mixing in late day
at elevations above 1500ft in the North Woods north of
Moosehead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level shortwave approaching from the west will support a
small area of low pressure tracking east into the Downeast region
Wednesday night. This will bring rain across the area that may
change to a period of snow over the north late Wednesday night as
1000-850 thicknesses drop below 1300. Northern and possibly central
areas may wake up to the first coating over snow over some central
and northern parts of the region Thursday morning.

Low pressure will quickly move away Thursday as high pressure builds
in. Cloudy skies will give way to partial clearing, and perhaps a
mostly clear sky south under gusty northwesterly winds. This will be
followed by a moonlit sky Thursday night as high pressure builds to
our south. The gradient will likely be strong enough to maintain a
breeze overnight.

Fast moving low pressure tracking from Ontario into Quebec on Friday
will pull a warm front north toward the area which will bring a
southerly breeze and some showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The partially occluded warm front will slide to the east late
Friday night into early Saturday morning. High pressure will
quickly follow to bring some clearing on Saturday. This will
bring a clear to partly cloudy and cold night Saturday night as
the high builds over.

A new area of low pressure will quickly near on Sunday bringing
increasing clouds and a chance of rain that may begin as a period of
snow over the north. Dry air will surge into the circulation behind
the low Sunday night likely ending precipitation. Cold gusty winds
will follow on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Through 12z...Slowly improving to MVFR but cannot
rule out brief IFR. Winds shifting to WSW 10-15kt gusting up to
20kt. VCSH/-SHRA becoming mainly VCSH.

Today...MVFR north, VFR south becoming all VFR late day. WSW
winds shifting WNW mid morning, 12-15z timeframe. WNW winds
15-20kt gusting 35-45kt. VCSH across northern terms through
midday.

Tonight...VFR cigs. LLWS likely all terms. WNW winds 10-15kt
gusting 25-35kt becoming SW after midnight relaxing to 5-15kt
gusting 20kt.

Wednesday...VFR increasing cigs becoming MVFR late day. -RA
developing late day from SW to NE. SW winds 5-15kt.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday night...IFR in rain, and possibly some snow north. Winds
NE shifting to N around 10 to 15 kt.

Thursday...IFR improving to VFR south and MVFR north. NW winds 10 to
15 kt and gusty.

Thursday night...VFR. NW winds 10 to 15 kt becoming W around 10 kt.

Friday...VFR lowering to MVFR. S winds around 10 kt.

Friday night...MVFR lowering to IFR. S wounds around 10 kt.

Saturday...IFR improving to MVFR then VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Rain tapering to showers this morning with improving
vsby. NW Gales developing this morning. Gale Warning for all of
the coastal waters out 25nm from 5AM this morning till 1AM EST
tonight. NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 5
to 8 ft expected. Winds/seas will subside to SCA conditions from
1AM through daybreak Wednesday. Expect winds/seas below SCA
through Wednesday afternoon. Rain will develop late day
Wednesday reducing vsby at times.

SHORT TERM:
A gale will likely be needed late Wednesday night through
Thursday for NW winds gusting over 35 kt. A strong SCA or gale
may be needed late Friday into Saturday for winds gusting up to
30 kt. Winds should be below SCA late in the weekend. Seas may
build up to 10 ft Thursday and 8 ft Friday night into Saturday
in response to the winds.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...MB
Short Term...JS
Long Term...JS
Aviation...MB/JS
Marine...MB/JS