383
FXUS61 KCAR 040921
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
521 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will approach from the northwest this
morning and cross the area this afternoon. High pressure will build
south of the area Saturday. A cold front will approach on
Sunday...stall over the area Monday...then continue to the south on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Update...
Current radar reflectivity shows a few showers tracking across
the North Maine Woods at this hour, so adjusted forecast
accordingly. Otherwise,no other changes needed are rest of
forecast remains on track.

previous discussion
500 MB low will cross the region today. The combination of the
cold pool aloft, and diurnal instability will result in mainly
cloudy skies today. Expect scattered to numerous showers by
afternoon, mainly across northern areas. An isolated
thunderstorm is also possible this afternoon. Afternoon highs
today will generally range from around 70 across the north and
the lower to mid 70s for the Bangor region and Downeast.

The upper low moves quickly east through the Canadian Maritimes
tonight. Any early evening showers will quickly diminish with
the loss of heating, with skies becoming mainly clear to partly
cloudy. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s
across the north, and the mid 50s for the Bangor region and
Downeast.

Saturday is shaping up as a mainly sunny and warmer day, as high
pressure settles to the south of the region. Afternoon highs on
Saturday will range from the low to mid 80s across much of the
region, but it will be cooler along the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will be located off the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday
night while a cold front approaches from the northwest. The gradient
between the approaching front and the high off the coast will bring
a warm southwesterly breeze overnight. Moisture circulating into the
area around the high and ahead of the front will bring a mostly
cloudy night and a few showers may begin to press into the northwest
late at night. The front will continue to slowly approach on Sunday
bringing an increasing chance for showers and scattered
thunderstorms over the north while Downeast remains partly to mostly
cloudy but rain free. The front continues to slowly press into the
area late Sunday night with some showers, mostly over central and
northern areas while Downeast is partly cloudy. The front will begin
to stall overnight as high pressure over Eastern Canada weakens and
the subtropical ridge to the south holds on across the Mid-Atlantic
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The frontal boundary will remain stalled across the area on Monday.
A weak shortwave in the westerlies will approach from the Great
Lakes on Monday. This will act to back heights just a bit keeping
the front stalled over the region and bringing a mostly cloudy sky
with a continued chance for showers. The front will continue to very
slowly press south across the area Monday night into Tuesday after
the weak shortwave ripples on to the east. This will allow far
northern areas to have a return of some sunshine on Tuesday while
clouds and some showers continue over central and southern
areas. Flow is expected to be very weak early to mid week next
week which will prevent any strong drying. Another shortwave
ripple is expected to approach on Wednesday, this one a bit
further north in the jet stream. This will push another weak
front toward the area. This may bring a slight chance for some
showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday. However, this
system is very weak and right now it looks like Wednesday will
be partly sunny and dry most of the time. From there, the late
week looks unsettled and uncertain with some model guidance
showing yet another shortwave approaching, this one further
south, while other models keep the region dry. Will have to
carry chances for showers on Thursday with a general weak upper
trough over the region and no strong highs expected to bringing
clearing.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through Saturday. Chance -SHRA today with brief MVFR
conditions possible, mainly N KBGR. Isld -TSRA also possible
mainly 16Z-20Z but confidence too low to include in TAF. W to NW
wind today 10 to 20 kt, decreasing to 5 to 10 kt tonight, then W
to SW 10 to 15 kt on Saturday.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday night...VFR over the south and MVFR over the north. SW
winds.

Sunday...VFR south and MVFR north, possibly dropping to IFR. SW
winds.

Sunday night...MVFR north, MVFR to VFR south. Light SW winds.

Monday...MVFR, becoming VFR. Light and variable wind.

Monday night...VFR, possibly becoming MVFR south. Light NW wind.

Tuesday...VFR north. VFR to MVFR south. Light SW wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will be below SCA levels through
Saturday. Visibility may be reduced to 1 to 3 Nm in patchy fog
through early this morning.

SHORT TERM:
SW winds may approach 25 kt in a few gusts late Sunday into Sunday
night and seas may reach 5 to 6 ft Sunday night. Otherwise, wind and
seas should be below SCA through early next week. Humid air over the
colder waters will result in fog through early next week, possibly
dense at times.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...TWD/Bloomer
Marine...TWD/Bloomer