Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
725 FXUS61 KCAR 221048 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 648 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the area today and tonight as Hurricane Erin tracks well to the south and east of Nova Scotia into the Open Atlantic. A warm front will lift north of the area Saturday. A cold front will slowly approach from the west Saturday night through Sunday night, then cross the region Monday and Monday night, as its parent low passes well to the north. This low then slowly exits into the Maritimes on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 0630am update...Made minor changes with this update to reflect the latest trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track. Previous discussion... High pressure across the area today will bring a mostly sunny and warm day today with inland highs approaching 80. The air will be tranquil except for a light northeasterly breeze along the coast on the northern fringe of Hurricane Erin which will be passing out to sea around 400 miles south of our coast. Long period swell from the hurricane will be around 10 to 12 ft off our coast today with a period of around 17 seconds. Refer to the latest products from the National Hurricane Center for the latest information on Hurricane Erin. High pressure will remain over the area tonight bringing a clear to partly cloudy night, and a bit milder than recent nights will lows in the low to mid 50s. Isolated patchy valley fog is possible late at night. High pressure sliding south of our region will combine with an approaching frontal system on Saturday to lift a warm front north of the area. Moisture advecting into this front may bring a stray shower to some far northern areas on Saturday. Otherwise, Saturday will be partly to mostly cloudy north and mostly sunny south as highs reach the low 80s in some central areas. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The axis of a deep layered ridge exits to the east Saturday night, and continues to slowly exit into the eastern Maritimes on Sunday. Saturday night should be dry with some increase in mid to high clouds. The models continue to differ on timing on any precipitation for Sunday. The high resolution models support the slower timing of the ECMWF and CMC - so have limited pops to slight chance over far western zones late Sunday afternoon. A passing 30-35kt low level jet Sunday afternoon could bring some gusty winds Sunday afternoon, especially over Downeast Maine. This could cause some fire weather concerns. Refer to the Fire Weather Section of the AFD for details. Lows Saturday night should be around 5 degrees above normal. Highs on Sunday should be around 5 degrees above normal across the North and near normal elsewhere. A full latitude trough continues to build into the eastern US Sunday night, with passing shortwave troughs helping to usher it in. The passing shortwave coupled with the low level jet strengthening to 35-40kt as it tracks into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence, should help showers overspread the region from NW to SE Sunday night, mainly after midnight, with the possible exception of far southeastern Downeast Maine,which may remain dry. Lows Sunday night should be around 5 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The region remains to the east of the trough axis of a full latitude trough over the eastern U.S. Monday and Monday night. This will allow for widespread showers and possibly a rumble of thunder in the afternoon/early evening. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, with precipitable waters increasing to around 1.5 inches and diffluent flow aloft. It should be noted that WPC has the North with a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Monday, so will include a mention of the flood threat in the HWO. The first push of cooler air aloft comes in on Tuesday with a northern stream shortwave trough, rotating around the base of the full latitude trough, passing. This could bring some isolated to scattered showers to the region. There could be sufficient instabilty for some isolated thunder as well in the afternoon across the North. The region is just under SW flow aloft Tuesday night, in between northern stream shortwave troughs, and other than possibly some lingering showers early Tuesday evening, it should be dry. Another northern stream shortwave trough passes on Wednesday, with drier low levels, showers should be only isolated in nature and likely confined to the North, closest to the best forcing. West then SW flow sets up aloft Wednesday night and Thursday. With no shortwaves of note progged to be embedded in the flow then, it should be dry. (Note do have slight chance pops in across the North just in case more progressive GFS is correct - but given the amplified nature of the current pattern, there are some significant doubts on that point). Temperatures should be near normal Monday and Monday night, then below normal Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: High confidence in VFR through the TAF period for all but KPQI. At KPQI, there is a chance for some patchy fog, with MVFR or lower conditions late tonight, but confidence in this occurring is currently not high enough to reflect in the TAFs. Light and variable winds through the TAF period from KPQI on north. KHUL and KBGR should see N-NE winds at under 10KT develop by mid morning, then become light and variable again late this afternoon/early this evening. At KBHB N-NNE winds with gusts to around 15-20KT should develop by around mid morning, then the gusts should abate by late afternoon. Winds become light and variable again this evening. Saturday...VFR. S-SSW winds G15-20KT possible in the afternoon. SHORT TERM: Saturday night-Sunday...VFR. LLWS possible Saturday night at southern terminals. S-SW winds G20-25KT possible Sunday, strongest in the south. Sunday night...MVFR or lower probable at northern terminals and possible at southern terminals. LLWS possible. Monday-Monday night...MVFR or lower likely. Tuesday...VFR, with possible exception of a brief period of MVFR possible in any showers at mainly northern terminals. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Seas from Hurricane Erin will reach 10 to 12 ft today, subsiding to 6 to 7 ft late tonight then down to 4 ft by late Saturday. Winds light NE today, light and variable tonight then becoming light S on Saturday. SHORT TERM: For now it appears that conditions should be right around SCA levels Saturday night and Sunday, but there is not sufficient confidence that they will be at or above SCA levels to warrant extending the SCA into Saturday night at this time. SCA conditions are then probable on all waters Sunday night. The pressure gradient slackens on Monday allowing winds to diminish to 10 kt or less on all waters by afternoon and remain so into Tuesday. Long period swells could build seas to SCA levels again on Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... There is growing concern about fire weather conditions on Sunday, especially over Downeast Maine, which already is in drought. Wind gusts Sunday afternoon of 25-30 mph are possible along with relatively humidities possibly falling into the 30s, with the best chance across interior portions of Downeast Maine. Further north, wind gusts should not be quite as high, and antecedent conditions are not as dry, so the level of concern is not quite as high as for Downeast Maine, but there still is some concern. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Long period swells from distant Hurricane Erin will produce high surf and dangerous rip currents at Atlantic Beaches into Saturday. High astronomical tides and up to 2 feet of storm surge, along with the high surf may cause minor splashover at the time of high tide Friday evening. No changes have been made to the High Surf Advisory or Coastal Flood Statement with this forecast package. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...Maloit Long Term...Maloit Aviation...Bloomer/Maloit Marine...Bloomer/Maloit Fire Weather... Tides/Coastal Flooding...