576
FXUS61 KCAR 292344
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
744 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west tonight, then slowly
crosses the area Wednesday and Wednesday evening. High pressure
then builds in from the west through Friday night, then builds
to the south of the region through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
Weak cold front has made it almost to the coast at this hour.
This will allow somewhat drier air to overspread the region
later tonight. Otherwise, a stronger cold front was back across
western Quebec and this will be tomorrows weather maker with
showers and thunderstorms expected. No forecast changes were
needed at this time, as the current forecast still look to be in
good shape.

See updated aviation section.

previous discussion
A weak northern stream shortwave exits to the east by early this
evening bringing an end to any mainly isolated showers and
thunderstorms. This is followed by a weak northern stream shortwave
ridging crossing the area this evening, so it should be dry then,
with some decrease in cloud cover. A northern stream trough
approaches later tonight. This will bring an increase in mid to
high clouds and you could possibly some showers move into far
NW zones late. Lows tonight should range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s, which is near to slightly above normal.

The leading northern stream trough crosses the area Wednesday
through Wednesday evening. This should bring an area of showers,
with some embedded thunderstorms through the region from NW to
SE during this time frame. Initially won`t have enough
instability for strong to severe storms is the showers work into
the northern 1/3 of the cwa in the morning. Then as daytime
heating progress, should see 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE to go along
with the 500-1000J/kg of CAPE for areas roughly along and south
of a GNR-MLT line from late afternoon into early Wednesday
evening. This should bring some strong to possibly severe storms
to this region, until the convection reaches coastal Washington
County by mid-evening. With the loss of solar heating by then,
once again, you should not have sufficient thermodynamic support
for strong to possibly severe storms. This thinking fits in well
with the recent expansion by SPC of a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms into that region for this time frame. The main
risk is for strong winds and hail up to possibly quarter in size.
A look at rainfall shows that basin wide amounts should average
to around 1/10 to 1/3 of an inch across most areas, with 1/3 to
2/3 inch basin average amounts possible across portions of
southern Penobscot and northern Hancock Counties. This should
not be sufficient to produce anything more than the ponding of
water on roadways in known poor drainage and low lying areas.
Highs on Wednesday should be from the mid 70s to the mid 80s,
which is near normal across the North and around 5 degrees above
normal elsewhere.

Zonal and slightly confluent flow then builds over the region
for the remainder of Wednesday night. This should allow for
things to dry out and cloud cover to decrease from NW to SE.
Still could see some lingering isolated to scattered showers
across Downeast Maine, depending on exactly how fast the surface
cold front exits offshore. Lows Wednesday night should be within
a few degrees of either side of normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The frontal boundary will stall over the Gulf of Maine on
Thursday, continuing the possibility of showers over Downeast
Maine through the day. Behind this front, the air mass is cool
and dry. Northerly winds will pick up during the day on Thursday
and continue into Friday, eventually peaking Friday afternoon.
With a weak summer system and little instability, wind gusts
are expected to remain below about 30 mph, even at the highest
elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cooler temperatures will linger through the weekend, with
daytime highs reaching the mid to upper 70s and nighttime
temperatures in the 40s. With the drier air mass in place, this
will give a fall-like feel to the first half of the weekend,
before summer returns on Sunday. Sunday and Monday, return flow
will bring warm moist air up from the south again, with highs
rising back into the mid-80s and lows reaching the low 60s.
A chance of another front moving across the Crown of Maine
exists for late Sunday into Monday, but QPF values look to be
light. By Monday afternoon, precip chances increase across the
region with the front strengthening slightly and progressing
southward across the area more quickly. The chance for some
thunderstorms exists with this front, but details currently
remain unresolved with some uncertainty on timing and strength
of this front.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

KFVE...VFR through Wed night, except chance MVFR in sct showers
Wed morning thru midday Wed. Light variable wind tonight,
becoming SW 5 to 10 kt Wed morning, then becoming W to NW around
10 kt Wed afternoon thru Wed night.

KCAR...VFR through Wed night, except chance MVFR in sct -TSRA
Wed afternoon Light variable wind tonight, becoming SW 5 to 10
kt Wed morning, then becoming W to NW around 10 kt Wed afternoon
thru Wed night. Winds could be variable and gusty in the vcnty
any -TSRA Wed afternoon.

KPQI...VFR through Wed night, chance MVFR in sct -TSRA Wed
afternoon Light variable wind tonight, becoming SW 5 to 10 kt
Wed morning, then becoming W to NW around 10 kt Wed afternoon
thru Wed night. Winds could be variable and gusty in the vcnty
any -TSRA Wed afternoon.

KHUL...Mainly VFR through Wed night, except patchy BR could
result in brief periods of IFR tonight. Brief sub VFR possible
in any stronger -TSRA Wed afternoon. Light/variable wind
tonight, becoming SW 5 to 10 kt Wed, then W late day.

KBGR...VFR through Wed night, except chance brief MVFR or lower
in any late afternoon/early evening -TSRA on Wed.
Light/variable wind tonight, becoming SW around 10 kt on Wed,
then NW Wed night. Winds could be variable and gusty in the
vcnty any -TSRA Wed afternoon.

KBHB...VFR through Wed night, except chance brief MVFR or lower
in any late afternoon/early evening showers on Wed. Low
confidence whether or not late afternoon/early evening -TSRA
develops, thus not reflected in latest TAF. If it does, best
window for any -TSRA 21z to 24z Wed. Light/variable wind
tonight, becoming S around 10 kt on Wed, then becoming N Wed
night.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday-Friday...Mainly VFR. Cannot rule out brief MVFR for BHB
and possibly BGR in light showers Thurs. NNW 5-10kts during the
day, light N Thursday night.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR. NW wind 5-15kts Friday night
becoming W 5-10 kts.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Potential for MVFR in -SHRA for FVE, and
brief periods of MVFR for CAR/PQI. W winds 10 kts becoming SW 10
to 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters will
limit winds to 10 kt or less and seas to 2 ft or less, outside
of any thunderstorms, tonight-Wednesday night. Patchy fog
reducing visibilities to around 1 mile is possible late
tonight/Wednesday morning and again Wednesday night.
Thunderstorms are possible across the waters Wednesday evening,
with some possible producing wind gusts of 25-35kt and small
hail.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below small craft levels through the
period. Seas 1-2 feet over all waters. Winds becoming NNW on
Friday, possibly gusting to 20 kts during the day, especially
offshore, then becoming W to SW 10kt Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Maloit
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...TWD/Maloit/LF
Marine...TWD/Maloit/LF