658
FXUS61 KCAR 140423
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1123 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will remain over Eastern Canada through
Saturday as a series of weather disturbances moves through. A new
upper low diving down from Central Canada will develop low pressure
near our coast on Sunday. Low pressure will lift into Eastern Canada
Monday into Tuesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
An upper low drifts east of the region overnight, keeping
troffing across the forecast area while a disturbance moves
through the trof. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies along with
with flurries/isolated snow showers overnight, possibly mixed
with rain showers along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures
will range from around 20 to the lower 20s north, to the upper
20s to around 30 Downeast. Have updated to adjust for current
conditions along with expected overnight temperatures, clouds
and snow/rain shower chances.

Previous Discussion...
The low to our east over Newfoundland will remain nearly
stationary on Friday keeping our cool northwesterly flow.
Generally dry weather should continue with a partly cloudy sky
and lows from the teens northwest to the mid 20s Downeast.

The Newfoundland low will begin to retrograde northwestward in
response to some blocking and amplification Friday night. Dry
weather should persist overnight. However, the low lifting northwest
may increase the gradient a bit keeping a cool breeze through the
night.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...Accumulating snow possible across most of the area Saturday
night into Sunday...

Saturday through Sunday, a low pressure system will cross the
state and move northward into Nova Scotia. This will bring the
first chance for real accumulating snow across the north. A warm
wedge will move over the region on Saturday night, then colder
air will filter in behind the low on Sunday. The exact path of
the low will make a difference in how much warm air moves in
Saturday night. Rain/snow mix is likely Saturday night into
Sunday, but there is a chance that the air column could be
colder than expected, leading to a greater accumulation of snow.
How quickly we transition to the colder air mass will also
affect how much snow accumulates Sunday into Monday. Have
lowered temps slightly on Sunday from NBM deterministic to
reflect the possibility of a cooler air column. Current snow
accumulation total are ranging 1 to 3 inches, but this does not
include potential snow Monday morning, and the spread is quite
wide. The likelihood of more than 4 inches of snow before the
Monday morning commute is 20 to 30 percent over eastern Maine,
which means that commuters should prepare for a messy drive.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An increasing chance exists for gusty winds on the backside of
the low Monday and Monday night. The northwesterly direction
indicates that the over the waters the highest winds and waves
will be mainly offshore, but there is some potential for gales
over the water. Across the mainland, cold gusty winds are likely
Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning, particularly at
higher elevations. Winds will taper off Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR/IFR ceilings possible through early
morning. Otherwise, generally expect VFR conditions overnight
into Friday night. North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots
overnight, then 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots
Friday. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots Friday night.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday...VFR. W to NW wind.

Saturday night...VFR early, then MVFR or lower in developing
snow north and rain or snow south. S wind.

Sunday...Widespread IFR expected in snow north and rain and snow south.
SE wind becoming W late.

Sunday night...IFR north and MVFR south. Chance snow. W to NW
wind.

Monday through Tuesday...MVFR/VFR Scattered snow showers north.
Gusty W wind.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect overnight
through Friday night for much of the waters with the exception
of the intra-coastal waters. Isolated showers overnight.

SHORT TERM: Winds will diminish below 25 kts on Saturday, but
the potential for gales exists starting Sunday afternoon and
lasting until Tuesday morning. Seas will gradually build to 6 to
8 feet during this period.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...CN/MB
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...CN/LF
Marine...CN/LF