383
FXUS61 KCAR 172333
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
733 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds down from southeastern Canada through
Tuesday night, then slowly exits to the east through Wednesday.
A back door cold front approaches Wednesday night, then pushes
south Thursday followed by high pressure building across the
region through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
733PM Update: Updated the aviation section. Rest of the
forecast looks good.

Previous Discussion...
The cold front is currently moving southward through the state,
followed by a broad area of rainfall. The front has been
overperforming slightly and some heavier bands of rain have
brought over half an inch to northern Aroostook County. This is
promising as the front moves southward, with some rain-starved
areas possibly seeing up to 0.75" of precip later this evening.
Not enough to make up for the 4 to 5 inch deficit seen so far
this season, but at least enough to make a start and knock down
the dust. Winds have also been overperforming behind the front,
so increased winds slightly for Sunday as a 30kt LLJ mixes down
to the surface.

Convectively speaking, activity has been very quiet. CAPEs
continue to be minimal, so really the best chance for TS will be
further south, ahead of the front where solar heating has
increased surface instability. There is some chance for one or
two storms to be stronger, with gusty winds, since there is
about 40 knots of bulk shear available ahead of the front.
However, given the limited possibility of coverage, decided not
to go with any enhanced wording in the forecast. Any storms that
do form may also be capable of heavier rainfall rates, so
rainfall across Downeast may have some heavier locations.

The front will pass through and move offshore during the night
tonight, ushering in cooler, drier air and gusty northwest
winds. These will taper off during the day tomorrow, and
decoupling Monday night will lead to some chilly temperatures.
Frost is possible in some of the lower lying areas of the North
Woods, although it will not be widespread.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak northern stream shortwave ridging crosses the area Tuesday
and Tuesday night. This should allow for minimal cloud cover on
Tuesday, then should see some increase in cloud cover Tuesday
night with increasing moisture on the back side of the ridging
ahead of the next system. Looking at 12z guidance, it looks
slower to bring in any precipitation (if any is coming at all),
so backed away from NBM pops, restricting to slight chance over
far NW zones late. Highs on Tuesday and lows Tuesday night
should be around 5 degrees below normal.

The models show a wide range of solutions for Wednesday ranging from
dry to  up to a few tenths of rain over most of the region, as a
northern stream trough pushes across the region. The big unknown is
how much of an influence hurricane Erin will be on the surrounding
environment. Major hurricanes can influence the surrounding
environment hundreds of miles away from the storm, and this
typically is not well handled by the models, especially more than a
couple of days out. In addition, a predecessor rain band is progged
by most models to be around/south of Long Island/southern New
England - so that could severe to limit the amount of moisture
available to the north of it for rainfall up here. As a result have
limited pops to at most chance, with mainly dry conditions forecast
over Downeast Maine. Highs on Wednesday should be around 5 degrees
below normal.

Refer to the latest products from NHC for the most recent
information on Erin.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A northern stream shortwave trough then crosses the area
Wednesday night. Have basically the same uncertainty as
Wednesday, so limit pops to slight chance across most of
Downeast Maine and portions of the Bangor region, with chance
pops elsewhere.

Yet another northern stream shortwave trough passes on Thursday,
this should bring a slight chance of showers, mainly across the
North.

Northern stream ridging then builds in Thursday night-Friday night,
so it should be dry.

Note - swells from a distant Hurricane Erin will bring highs
seas and dangerous rip currents to Atlantic Beaches from
Wednesday night into Friday. This threat will continued to be
highlighted in the HWO.

A surface to 850 mb warm front lifts to the northeast through Maine
on Saturday, as northern stream ridging continues to build overhead
aloft , bring some isolated to possibly scattered showers across
portions of the North.

The ridge axis lifts to the east Saturday night, allowing for
southwest flow to set up aloft into Sunday ahead of an approaching
closed low over northeast Ontario. This should bring a chance of
showers to the region from SW to NE from Saturday night into Sunday.

Temperatures should be below normal at night and near normal during
the day Wednesday night through Friday night. Temperatures should
then be above normal on Saturday then near normal for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR tempo IFR conditions through late this evening
as the front moves through, clearing to VFR from N to S late
tonight. Gusty NW winds 15 to 20 kts. Limited chance for TS on
station at BGR this afternoon.


SHORT TERM: Tuesday-Tuesday night...VFR, with the possible
exception of a MVFR or lower in any valley fog early Tuesday
morning.

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR, with the possible exception of a
brief period of MVFR possible in any stronger showers. The best
chance for a shower is at northern terminals.

Thursday night-Friday...VFR. NW winds G15KT possible Friday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: N to NW winds will gust to 30kts over the waters
late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Seas building to 3 to 4
feet. Winds and seas will subside Monday morning.


SHORT TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient will limit winds to 10
kt or less over the waters from Tuesday through Friday. The
absence of any significant swells will help limit seas to 3 ft
or less Tuesday-Tuesday night.

Swells from distant Hurricane Erin will build seas to up to 12ft
by Thursday night, then the swells will gradually dissipate
Friday and Friday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...LF/LaFlash
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...LF/LaFlash/Maloit
Marine...LF/LaFlash/Maloit