469
FXUS61 KCAR 121051
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
651 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area this morning will slide to the east
today. A trough of low pressure in central Canada will slowly push a
frontal boundary toward our region on Sunday then through the area
Monday. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday. Weak low pressure
will approach on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
6:50 AM Update...The fog is beginning to thin out along the
coast so lifted the dense fog advisory. However, some patchy
dense fog may linger in some areas for another hour.

Previous discussion...
Surface high pressure over the area is beginning to move east early
this morning. A low level flow of moist air advecting north on the
back side of this high has been pushing some low clouds and fog
inland from the Gulf of Maine. The morning will begin with low
overcast and fog across much of the southern part of our region this
morning. Northern areas will begin mostly clear with only patchy fog
and low clouds. Low clouds and fog will linger over the south into
much of the day and slowly evaporate during the midday and
afternoon, but remain near the coast. The north will become mostly
sunny under an upper level ridge. This will result in northern areas
being warmer than southern areas with highs from the upper 60s to
low 70s near the coast, and reaching the low 80s well to the north.

Low clouds and fog will spread back north tonight as a moist
southerly breeze increases on the back side of the high. This will
result in the sky becoming overcast overnight with low clouds. Some
fog is likely Downeast and in the lower Penobscot Valley.

High pressure will continue to move away to the east on Sunday as a
large upper trough over Central Canada pushes a frontal boundary
toward the area. Sunday morning will begin with a low overcast
across the area. The low clouds will likely mix out for some breaks
of sunshine during the afternoon with southern areas remaining
partly to mostly cloudy. Highs again will be lower Downeast where
low to mid 70s are expected, and warmer across the north with highs
in the low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned frontal boundary will approach the area
Sunday night and cross Monday. Ahead of the front, patchy fog will
be possible south of Katahdin for Sunday night into early
Monday morning. Otherwise, the shower threat increases Sunday
night, reaching a zenith on Monday. The main threat area will be
from about Moosehead Lake to Katahdin to Houlton north and
west. However, a few showers could reach Bangor by Monday
afternoon. Soundings show enough instability for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms, especially north and west. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms will end Monday night as the front
weakens and moves out of Maine. Clouds and showers will keep
high temperatures in the 70s for most places on Monday. However,
it will be a bit humid, with dew points well into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some leftover energy behind the front could bring an isolated
shower or thunderstorm to northeastern Aroostook County for
Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, ridging will bring dry weather
through at least early Wednesday. With clear skies and nearly
calm winds Tuesday night, it is possible that lows could be a
bit cooler than currently forecast. However, the air mass is not
particularly cool, so not enough confidence to go below NBM
guidance at this time.

A cold front will slowly approach Maine from the northwest
during the second half of next week. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon from Katahdin
northward. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are
possible Thursday and Friday as the front moves through. There
remains uncertainty amongst guidance with timing of the frontal
passage. Temperatures will be above normal midweek, then
dropping closer to normal by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
South: LIFR To IFR in clouds and fog this morning, possibly
improving to MVFR inland from the coast this afternoon, then
lowering back to IFR in low clouds and fog tonight. IFR in low
clouds on Sunday. Light S wind.

North: patchy low clouds and fog possible early this morning.
Otherwise, VFR today into this evening, lowering to IFR in low
clouds late tonight. IFR Sunday morning, improving to MVFR then VFR
Sunday afternoon. Light S wind.


SHORT TERM:
Sunday Night...IFR/LIFR possible late, mainly GNR-MLT southward,
with BCFG. Otherwise, mainly VFR. MVFR possible at times with
VCSH and isolated TS at northern terminals. S-SE winds 5-15 kts.

Monday & Monday Night...Variable conditions with any SHRA or
TS. Also, with any low clouds or BCFG. Otherwise, mainly VFR. S
winds 10 to 15 knots Monday. SW-W winds 5 to 10 knots Monday
night.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Brief MVFR or lower possible north in the
PM with slight chance of VCSH and isolated TS. W winds 5-10
kts.

Tuesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Occasional MVFR possible late with a
slight chance of VCSH or isolated TS north. SW winds 5 to 10
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Wind will remain light and seas around 3 ft today through
Sunday. Fog over the waters may be dense in some areas over the
weekend.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria Sunday night through midweek. Patchy fog could
reduce visibility over the waters Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...Bloomer/Clark
Marine...Bloomer/Clark