904
FXUS61 KCAR 211729
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
129 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Slowed the rain exiting on Monday by increasing the rain
  chances throughout the south.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday
into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this
could bring to the ongoing drought at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...There is the potential for widespread rainfall
from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any,
relief this could bring to the ongoing drought at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A closed low pressure system developing over the Mid Atlantic
coast will progress north on Saturday and move rain into the
region Saturday night. The CAMs are starting to grab onto the
storm giving a clearer picture of the rain timeline. Expect rain
to begin along the coast Saturday evening and push NNE through
Saturday night. The question for Saturday night will be how much
rainfall will occur, especially for areas in the north.
Unfortunately, the ensembles still disagree on amounts as of
this update. After midnight, the center of the low will be over
Downeast.

As this coastal low moves northward, a vertically stacked low
pressure system centered over the Great Lakes will progress E
over New England. This new low is expected to weaken the coastal
low, which will increase the amount of moisture within the
stronger low. By Sunday, expect widespread rainfall continuing
throughout the day. Throughout Sunday night, the low becomes
stationary over Quebec as it rotates the moisture through the
state. By Monday, the low begins to gradually move north which
will decrease rain chances throughout the day.

Since the rain amounts are unknown as of this update, it is
unknown if this system will bring any relief to the ongoing
drought.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z...VFR. Light NW winds.

Tonight...Mainly VFR. MVFR/IFR restrictions in patchy fog at HUL
and PQI between 06-12z.

Saturday...VFR. MVFR late in the afternoon with low cigs and
showers. ESE winds 5-15kts.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Cannot rule out a
tstm for BGR/BHB. E winds 5-15 kts.

Sunday-Monday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Slight chance for
thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday afternoon. Chance for fog
at KBHB Sunday night into early Monday morning. S/SE winds at
5-10 kts Sunday night, becoming SW on Monday. Gusts 15-20 kts
possible on Monday afternoon.

Monday night-Tuesday: MVFR at northern terminals in rain
showers Monday night, and again Tuesday afternoon. VFR at
KBGR/KBHB. SW winds at 5-10 kts.

Wednesday...VFR.  W winds 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds generally below 20kts through Saturday night, though east
winds approach 25kts over 25-60NM waters Saturday
afternoon/evening. Seas build to 2-4 ft with highest seas over
the waters from 25-60nm Saturday evening. Patchy fog and
showers may reduce visibilities aob 5NM.

Slight chance of winds or seas reaching 25 kts/5 ft Monday-
Tuesday. Fog likely the next few nights. Rain moves in Saturday,
with a chance for thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. E winds
Saturday night, becoming S on Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ARL
AVIATION...21/ARL