124
FXUS61 KCAR 250206
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
906 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure continues to slowly exit to the east across the
Maritimes through Monday, followed by weak high pressure
building in Monday night. Low pressure will approach from the
eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday, then lift to the north into the
Maritimes Tuesday night and Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night, followed by another low approaching
from the southwest on Thursday. This low tracks to the south,
and then into the southwestern Canadian Maritimes Thursday
night and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9 pm update...Continuing to monitor the band of precip wrapping
southward into northern Maine from the Gaspe Peninsula. Minor
tweaks changes were made to the forecast such as lowering QPF
tonight by a couple of hundredths of an inch in northern
Aroostook County. Accumulations still max out at an inch or less
except terrain over 1500 ft elevation.  Snow has now commenced
at Frenchville and the Caribou/Presque Isle area. While road
surfaces are generally warm, some travel difficulties could
result for Rt 11, Rt 161, Rt 1 and 1a by later this evening.
That will be most pronounced for elevations closer to 1000 ft
where more snow accumulates and temps will be lower.

The band will weaken as it moves south and little impact is
expected for Houlton and Millinocket. No changes were made to
our forecast for points further south tonight.

Previous discussion...
As a surface low continues to slowly pull eastward away from
Prince Edward Island, another band of showers is wrapping around
the low and pushing into the forecast area from the northeast
tonight. These showers will begin as rain, but will likely
switch to a rain-snow mix or all snow through the night as
temperatures cool slightly into the overnight hours. That said,
with little moisture support on the backside of the low, little
total snow accumulation is expected, with up to an inch possible
in the higher terrain. Temperatures overnight will be slow to
cool off, and near steady temps are in store for much of the
forecast area, sitting in the low to mid 30s all night. Winds
will remain breezy with gusts 30 to 35 mph possible over much of
the forecast area, and occasional gusts to 40 mph possible at
higher terrain.

For Monday, a ridge of high pressure will continue to build into
the area, allowing for winds to gradually decrease through the
day as the pressure gradient aloft relaxes. Low level moisture
may linger across the north, which could be enough for some
drizzle to linger, though confidence is low on drizzle hanging
on through the day on Monday (10 percent chance for drizzle).
Temperatures may gradually lift into the low to mid 40s through
the day on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep layered ridging exits to the east Monday night, with
associated subsidence keeping things dry. Lows Monday night
should be around 5-10 degrees above normal.

A northern stream longwave trough approaches from the southwest
on Tuesday. Guidance, in particular high resolution guidance
have slowed the onset of precipitation (likely due to the slower
exit of the deep layered ridging ahead of it), so have
significantly lowed pops in the morning, especially across the
east. Steady rain, possibly mixed with snow across the North
Woods, should develop from SW to NE from late Tuesday morning
through Tuesday afternoon. Highs on Tuesday should be around
5-10 degrees above normal across the North and near normal
elsewhere.

The axis of the northern stream longwave trough lifts to the
north Tuesday evening, bringing an end to steady rainfall from
SW to NE as it does so. Should see around 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch
of precipitation, mainly if not entirely in the liquid form,
with highest amounts from the Central Highlands into Southern
Aroostook. Lows Tuesday night should be around 5-10 degrees
above normal.

A couple of weak northern stream shortwaves pass on Wednesday as
the region as at the base of a broad closed low centered across
SW Quebec. This could bring some scattered to mainly isolated
snow showers to portions of the north, with the best chance near
the Quebec boarder. His on Wednesday should be around 5-10
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep layered ridging builds in Wednesday night, keeping things
dry. How quickly this ridge exits to the east on Thursday, will
determine how fast precipitation builds in from SW to NE during
the day. For now, noted a slowing trend in the models, have
delayed the onset time for precipitation in most portions of the
forecast area until Thursday afternoon.

Models are now in better agreement in how they handle the system
late next week. A northern stream trough pushes through the
northeast Thursday night, with its associated coastal low
tracking to our south (exact track - close to the coast or
heading to pass south of Nova Scotia) still uncertain. This
northern stream trough/developing closed low then pivots north
into the Maritimes, taking the surface low some place between
the the Gulf of Saint Lawrence and southern Nova Scotia by
Friday evening. This system then slowly lifts north through
Saturday. This should lead to a period of snow across the North,
rain across most of Downeast Maine and a rain/snow mix
elsewhere Thursday night, with the highest chance of
precipitation over Eastern Maine. The precipitation continues
on Friday, mixing with or changing to all rain over Eastern
Maine. Precipitation should then change to all snow throughout
before tapering to mainly snow showers from south to north
Friday night and Saturday. For now, there is some increased
confidence in widespread snowfall across the north; but exactly
how much snow falls and how much impact it might have cannot be
specified at this time due to the current amount of uncertainty
with this system.

The region then remains at the base of the closed low over the
SW Maritimes into Sunday with a gusty winds.

Temperatures should be above normal Wednesday night - Thursday
night, then near normal Friday-Saturday, then below normal on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Primarily MVFR continues across northern terminals
from HUL northwards. -SHSN may begin to move in tonight, which
could lower vis towards IFR while cigs trend lower as well.
Precip will end through the early morning hours on Monday,
however cigs will likely remain MVFR at these terminals through
the day on Monday.

MLT south through coastal terminals will likely remain VFR
through the next 24 hours. However, NW LLWS is possible from
MLT and HUL south through the coast overnight from around 00z to
12z, and will dissipate beyond sunrise.

Gusty NW winds continue over all terminals tonight, sustained
10 to 15 kts and gusting 20 to 30 kts. Winds will gradually
decrease through the day on Monday.

SHORT TERM:
Monday night-Tuesday morning...VFR.


Tuesday afternoon/evening...IFR or lower possible, developing
from W to E. LLWS possible southern terminals.

Late Tuesday night...IFR or lower probable. Becoming VFR
southern terminals towards morning. W-NW Winds G15-20KT
possible.


Wednesday-Wednesday night...Becoming VFR throughout in the
morning. W-SW winds G15-20KT possible.

Thursday...MVFR or lower possible, developing from SW to NE in
the afternoon.

Thursday night-Friday...IFR or lower probable. Possibly
improving to MVFR later on Friday from S to N. N winds G15-25KT
possible Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale force winds continue tonight out of the
northwest. Seas range from 2 to 5 ft over the intracoastal
waters and from 5 to 8 ft over the outer waters. Winds will
begin to gradually decrease on Monday as high pressure builds
in, falling back to SCA levels on the intracoastals early
Monday morning and on the coastal waters by Monday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: SCA likely needed on the coastal ocean waters
Monday night and Tuesday, with SCA conditions possible on the
intra- coastal waters. SCA conditions are then possible on all
waters Tuesday night through Wednesday night. For now it appears
there could be a lull in SCA conditions on Thursday, before
they become possible again on all waters on Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...AStrauser/Maloit
Marine...AStrauser/Maloit