152
FXUS61 KCAR 070648
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
248 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will cross the region today into tonight.
High pressure will build to our west Thursday into Friday.
Another low will approach the coast on Saturday. High pressure
returns on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A trough of low pressure will lift up toward the region today.
Some spotty showers and drizzle out ahead of this trough, and
supported by a weak upper disturbance, will cross the area early
this morning. By mid to late morning, a dry intrusion will lift
up into the area. Low clouds will remain across the region, but
will likely thin by late morning and midday allowing for some
misty breaks of sunshine. This will boost temperatures well into
the mid to upper 60s inland, and with dew points in the low to
mid 50s it will feel a bit humid for early May. Some showers may
begin to push back into western areas late today as the upper
trough lifts up into the region. The cooler air pooled aloft in
the upper trough combined with the days heating may produce some
thunderstorms in far western areas late in the afternoon.

Showers will weaken and lift up to the northeast tonight as the
upper low lifts through. A bit of cooler air will begin to
filter into the northwest late tonight where lows will drop to
near 40. Elsewhere, another mild night is expected under a
mostly cloudy sky with lows in the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Ejecting H5 trof, which was once a closed low, will be ejecting into
the Gulf of St. Lawrence Thursday morning as another H5 trof deepens
back to our west. This will briefly give the area a break from the
showers but will remain cloudy. Cold front will have pushed offshore
during the morning hours with temps acrs the north blo normal around
50F while southern areas will see near normal temps in offshore
flow.

North winds continue Thursday night with sfc high building south out
of Canada. Upr ridge noses in from the nrn Plains into nrn Quebec
while digging trof closes itself off back to our west once again.
Where this upr low ends up closing off will determine our precip
chances for the end of the week and thru the weekend. Given the
notoriously slow movements of upr lows am not wild about going
likely pops for Friday and Friday evening at this point, especially
given uncertainty with deterministic runs as well as their
respective ensemble means. Latest 00z EC continues to slow down rain
and holds it back until after midnight Friday night and have held
back on likely pops until the very end of the short term, after 06z
Saturday when all guidance is in agreement on rain falling over most
of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain looks to continue into Saturday afternoon/evening before upr
low ejects twd the Maritimes. Upper flow will eventually transition
to fast-moving northwest flow through the end of the period with
little in the way of organized systems expected into early next
week. Temps will moderate to above normal by the early part of next
week with westerly flow allowing H8 temps to rise to near +10C.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR to LIFR conditions in low clouds this morning
will improve to MVFR during the midday and afternoon but may
remain IFR in misty low clouds along the coast. MVFR conditions
are expected tonight in variable low cloudiness. Winds light
southerly today into tonight, becoming light NW over the
northwest late tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday...MVFR/IFR all terminals in the morning, improving to VFR
late. N 5-15kts.

Thursday night...Mainly VFR. N 5-10kts.

Friday...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR late Downeast. NNE 5kts.

Friday night-Saturday...MVFR/IFR in rain. N 5-10kts.

Saturday night-Sunday...MVFR/IFR in rain early improving to VFR
Sunday afternoon. NW 5-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will be light southerly today into this evening
becoming SW late tonight. Seas will be around 4 ft through
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below small craft levels
through the end of the week. Cannot rule out seas approaching 5ft
over the outer waters in southeasterly swell on Saturday but winds
will remain below 20kts.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Bloomer/Buster
Marine...Bloomer/Buster