625
FXUS61 KCAR 050804
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
404 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build south of the area today. A cold front will
approach on Sunday...stall over the area Monday...then move south on
Tuesday. A weak upper trough will move over the region Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Update...
Only change was to add patchy fog to northern and eastern areas.

See updated aviation section.

previous discussion
High pressure will continue to drift east to the south
of Nova Scotia, and out into the open waters of the western
Atlantic through tonight. The return flow around the departing
high will transport warmer air into the region today. This will
allow afternoon high temperatures to climb to around the 80
degree mark across the north, and the low to mid 80 for the
Bangor region and interior Downeast. It wont feel too
uncomfortable as dew points are expected to generally remain in
the low to mid 50s this afternoon. Expect plenty of sunshine to
start the day, followed by increasing late afternoon high
clouds. A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued once again
today for the Downeast coast.

A warm front will approach the region this evening and lift to the
northeast late tonight. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies
overnight. Scatterd showers are possible, mainly across northern
and central areas. There is some elevated instabilty, thus an
isolated thunderstorm is not totally out of the question. Lows
tonight will generally be in the lower 60s across the region.

A more uncomfortable day is on tap for the last day of the
Independence Day weekend on Sunday. Dew points are expected to
climb into the mid to upper 60s across much of the region.
Afternoon highs on Sunday are expected to range from the low to
mid 80s across northern areas and the mid to upper 80s for the
Bangor region, and interior Downeast. Heat indices are expected
to climb into the lower 90s across the central Maine Highlands,
the upper Penobscot Valley, interior Downeast, and the Bangor
region. However, it appears as if they will just stay below
advisory criteria (95F). But it will still be an uncomfortably
warm and humid day nevertheless. Another concern on Sunday will
be the potential for convection as a cold front begins to cross
the region from NW to SE. There still are timing differences
with how quickly the front moves into the area, but it will
serve as the impetus for showers and thunderstorms as it begins
to cross the region. It appears as if the best chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be across northern and central
areas on Sunday. Looks as if the main threat with any storms
that do develop during Sunday will be strong gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall, with precipitable water values expected
to approach 2-inches. It was noted that the Storm Prediction
Center has outlooked the region in Marginal for Sunday on their
day two convective outlook.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure sliding from Ontario into Quebec will slowly push a
cold front south across the area Sunday night. The front will be
pushing into some deeply saturated air with precipitable water over
2" across much of the area. Showers and some embedded thunderstorms
along the front may produce a few heavy downpours. CAPE is weak, but
frontal surface convergence should support some weak but very moist
convection along the front.

The front will continue slowly pushing south on Monday reaching the
Downeast region by the end of the day. Showers and some embedded
thunderstorms will continue along the front on Monday and then
gradually push offshore Monday night. A few heavy downpours will
still be possible as the front continues to push into Saturated air.
The very humid air over the coastal waters will likely cause fog and
mist to persist along the coast through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak high pressure building over the north will bring partial
clearing to northern areas on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the very slow
moving front will be near, or just offshore on Tuesday. A shallow
longwave trough will remain over the east extending from the Great
Lakes region across New England early next week. The main forecast
challenge will be in identifying and timing subtle shortwave ripples
tracking through this trough. Long range models are showing a very
weak shortwave low sliding off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday.
This ripple may hold up the front just a bit keeping it nearby off
the coast and bringing a continued chance of showers over southern
areas. Once this shortwave slides east, the front will be able to
continue south bringing decreasing chances for showers Tuesday night
followed by a partly sunny day on Wednesday. Some of the models are
showing another weak ripple of energy in the northern branch of the
jet stream Wednesday which, if it materializes, could bring spotty
showers on Wednesday. The late week period looks a bit unsettled as
the weak upper trough remains over the northeast bringing continued
chances for spotty showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

KFVE...VFR today, except LIFR/VLIFR at times in FG through 12z.
W to NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Tonight...VFR with scattered showers
after midnight, S to SW wind 5 to 10 kt. LLWS. Sunday...VFR,
with possible MVFR or lower in the afternoon in showers/tstms. W
to SW wind 10 t0 15 kt.

KCAR...VFR today with W to NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Tonight...VFR
with scattered showers after midnight, S to SW wind 5 to 10
kt. LLWS. Sunday...VFR, with possible MVFR or lower in the
afternoon in showers/tstms. W to SW wind 10 to 15 kt.

KPQI...VFR today, except brief MVFR or lower in patchy BR
through 12Z. W to NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Tonight...VFR with
scattered showers after midnight, S to SW wind 5 to 10 kt. LLWS.
Sunday...VFR, with possible MVFR or lower in the afternoon in
showers/tstms. W to SW wind 10 t0 15 kt.

KHUL...VFR today, except brief MVFR or lower in patchy BR
through 12z. W to NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Tonight...VFR with
scattered showers after midnight, S to SW wind 5 to 10 kt.
Sunday...VFR, with possible MVFR or lower in the afternoon in
showers/tstms. W to SW wind 10 t0 15 kt.

KBGR...VFR through Sun. W wind 10 to 15 kt, then S 10 kt tonight
through Sun.

KBHB...VFR through Sun. W wind 10 to 15 kt, then S 10 kt tonight
through Sun.


SHORT TERM:
Sunday night...MVFR to IFR north and VFR to MVFR south. Light NW
wind over the north and light SW wind over the south.

Monday...MVFR, to occasionally IFR in showers across the area. Light
N wind north and light and variable wind south.

Monday night...MVFR to VFR north. MVFR south, possibly dropping to
IFR at times. Light N wind north and Light and variable wind south.

Tuesday...VFR north and MVFR south. Light and variable wind.

Tuesday night...VFR, except occasionally MVFR south. Light N wind.

Wednesday...VFR. Light N wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through Sunday.

SHORT TERM:
A few wind gusts may reach 25 kt over the offshore waters Sunday
night and seas may reach 5 to 6 ft Sunday night. Wind and seas
should then be below SCA Monday into early next week. Humid air
over the colder waters will result in dense fog at times across
the waters Sunday into early next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...TWD/Bloomer
Marine...TWD/Bloomer