223
FXUS61 KCAR 150537
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
137 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly exits to the southeast through Thursday. A
frontal system approaches from the north Thursday night, then
settles across northern Maine Friday. A complex low pressure
system slowly approaches from the west Friday night through
Saturday, then crosses main through Sunday night. The low then
slowly tracks to the east across Nova Scotia on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1:35 AM Update...Updated the Aviation section to reflect the
06z TAFs. Also, updated the Climate section to reflect the
record high in Caribou from May 14th. Otherwise, no changes with
this update.

Previous Discussion...
Tonight... Upper level high pressure just to our west today
becomes centered over the area tonight. Fairly mild tonight with
lows in the 50s. Anticipate low-level stratus and fog near the
coast later tonight, perhaps as far north as the Bangor region,
and have patchy to areas of fog in the forecast to account for
this. North of Bangor should remain mostly clear. No rain
tonight.

Thursday...
Center of upper level high pressure ridge moves ever so slightly
to our east. This will allow for a moister environment than on
Wednesday, with precipitable water values 1 to 1.25 inches
compared to around 0.75 inch on Wednesday. Dewpoints will also
be up into the 50s. Look for increasing/lowering clouds through
the day from the southwest, with mostly cloudy skies areawide
by sunset. The immediate coast could stay socked in with low
clouds all day though. High temperatures don`t look quite as
warm as Wednesday due to more cloud cover and increased
moisture, but still looks quite warm mainly in the north. Going
a bit warmer than guidance again in the north, forecasting highs
in the low 80s in the far north. Looking for closer to 70
around Bangor and around 60 immediate coast. Enough moisture for
isolated showers anywhere in the area, and enough instability
perhaps for an isolated storm from the North Woods to the
Moosehead Lake region. That said, not much of a forcing
mechanism and not very impressed at the prospect of convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The region is under split flow aloft Thursday night, with
northern stream ridging building to the north and a northern
stream shortwave passing to the south. There could be some
passing showers across the North in the evening in response to
some low level frontogenesis, otherwise should be dry. However,
light winds and abundant low level moisture should allow for the
formation of patches to areas of fog overnight. Lows Thursday
night should be around 10-15 degrees above normal.

Northern stream ridging exits to the east on Friday, allowing
for a southerly low to mid level return flow to set up in the
afternoon, with scattered to possibly numerous showers across
mainly the NW 1/2 of the CWA. Fog should dissipate in the
morning, except maybe near the immediate coast. Highs on Friday
should be around 10 degrees above normal.

A closed low should track slowly across the northern Great Lakes
Friday night and Saturday, with showers Friday night giving way
to light to moderate rain on Saturday with gradually strengthening
low-mid level isentropic ascent setting up. Lows Friday night
should be around 10 degrees above normal and highs on Saturday
near to slightly below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The closed low tracks from Southeastern Ontario on Saturday
night to a position somewhere around Maine by Sunday evening
(the model spread quickly grows starting Saturday night), with
the low meandering around/slowly tracking to the vicinity of
the waters east of Nova Scotia by Tuesday morning, then remains
over mainly the southeastern Maritimes into Wednesday.

The spread in solutions shows there is quite a bit of
uncertainty in how the weather for the first part of next week
will evolve. Some solutions are wetter than others, but the
general idea is that it should be much more cloudier than not,
with most places experiencing showers more on than off,
especially from Saturday night into Monday. Shower chances
should then decrease from W to E into Wednesday.

With the low level flow highly likely to have a northerly
component, with some precipitation, have undercut NBM
temperatures by blending in CONSRAW to reflect known high bias
for NBM temperatures in this setup. Depending on the exact
evolution of the cutoff low, the temperature reduction might not
have been low enough especially from Monday into Tuesday. Day
time temperatures should be below normal during this time frame,
with lows near to a few degrees below normal, as there should
not be a large diurnal range in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

Overnight...IFR or lower likely at BHB after 07-08z with BCFG.
IFR is possible at BGR as well after 07-09z, though confidence
is lower there. Areas north of BGR will be VFR through the
overnight. S-SW winds 5-10 kts tonight. LLWS from PQI north
through 12-13z.

Thursday...
Possibly morning IFR at BGR, but low confidence and BGR should
be VFR by 15z anyway. For BHB and immediate coast, think it will
stay predominantly IFR or low MVFR all day, though intermittent
VFR breaks are possible. Inland, expecting VFR through the day.
Isolated showers and storms inland have a chance at impacting
GNR and areas from PQI north in the late afternoon. Included a
PROB30 group in the TAFs from PQI northward. Winds from the S/SW
around 5-10 kts.


SHORT TERM:
Thursday night-Friday morning: VFR, with possible exception of
MVFR or lower possible in fog late at night/early in the
morning, with visibilities of IFR or lower possible at coastal
terminals. across all terminals.

Friday afternoon-Monday: MVFR or lower probable. NW winds
G15-25KT possible late Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Below small craft. Patchy to areas of fog over the
waters later tonight and into Thursday.


SHORT TERM: Sub-SCA conditions Thursday night-Saturday morning
with patchy to areas of fog. SCA conditions possible on the
coastal ocean waters Saturday afternoon and night, otherwise
sub-SCA conditions should prevail on the waters through Sunday
night. There is a low chance for SCA conditions on the waters on
Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A new record high temperature was set in Caribou for May 14th.
the high in Caribou was 86 degrees, beating the old record of
83 set in 2022. No other major climate sites saw record high
temperatures on May 14th.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Foisy/Clark
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...Foisy/Clark/Maloit
Marine...Foisy/Clark/Maloit
Climate...Clark