179
FXUS62 KCAE 172252
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
652 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper ridge will remain centered to our west early this week.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday, but
coverage should be limited due to the ridge, which breaks down
on Wednesday and allows Major Hurricane Erin to pass offshore of
the United States. More typical rain chances should return by
the end of week with cooling temperatures due to developing
upper troughing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Clear skies, light winds, and possible patchy fog tonight

Clear skies with no convection expected tonight. Nearly calm
winds and clear skies should lead to strong radiational cooling
tonight which may allow patchy fog to develop toward daybreak.
The highest potential for patchy fog is across parts of the
CSRA and eastern Midlands where the low level moisture is
greatest. Lows will be in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Potential for diurnally-driven convection increases through
  Tuesday, but overall coverage should remain limited.

- Above normal temperatures on Monday, with more seasonable
  temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Major Hurricane Erin will pass offshore of the United States
  on Wednesday with no impacts to our area, but should suppress
  convection from developing locally.

A strong upper level ridge will be centered over the Ozarks on
Monday. The low level flow will begin to veer more
southeasterly, allowing precipitable water values to creep up.
CAMs do show isolated showers and thunderstorms developing in
the afternoon, with the greatest focus across the northern and
central Midlands, perhaps focused along a weak lee-side trough.
Monday should be the hottest day of the week, with above normal
high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. Dewpoints should mix
out just enough to keep heat index values in the 100-105 range.

The upper ridge will retreat to the Four Corners Region Tuesday
and Wednesday, allowing for a weakness to develop in the upper
flow. This fortunately will allow Major Hurricane Erin to make a
northerly and eventually northeasterly turn away from the east
coast of the US. The lower heights aloft on Tuesday should allow
for a greater coverage of diurnally driven convection, along
with cooler, more seasonable temperatures. On Wednesday, the
region appears to be under the influence of subsidence on the
far western periphery of Erin. Blended guidance keeps PoPs
relatively low given this pattern, so perhaps this will be the
day with best potential for rain-free conditions this week.
Temperatures appear to remain near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Greater coverage of diurnal convection through the period.

- Below normal temperatures Friday and Saturday.

Ensembles suggest more of a zonal flow aloft on Thursday,
transitioning to broad troughing Friday and Saturday. Bermuda
high pressure will allow for an influx of moisture, resulting in
a greater coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms through
the long term period. The lower heights aloft combined with the
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms should result
in below normal temperatures by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak high pressure overhead tonight and Monday will keep VFR
conditions generally in tact for the TAF period. Only exception
will be some patchy morning ground fog at the usual suspects of
OGB and AGS, but shouldn`t be around for more than a couple of
hours.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Summertime conditions expected with
daily convection each afternoon and brief periods of fog/stratus
possible each morning.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$