207
FXUS62 KCAE 111144
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
744 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Above average temperatures and mostly dry through the rest of
the week. The next chance for more widespread rain and a
possibly a few thunderstorms is slated to arrive next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Clear skies and much warmer today.

Low pressure continues to accelerate eastward with much drier
air in deep layer northwest flow. Upper ridging will strengthen
across the area today which will lead to rising temperatures
which combined with weak downsloping should push highs into the
low to mid 70s. HREF mean indicates that PWATs will fall below
0.4 inch with clear skies. Winds will be out of the northwest
with a lingering pressure gradient, shifting more westerly this
afternoon but remain relatively light. Tonight, 925mb winds
strengthen a bit which will prevent ideal radiational cooling
conditions as lows expected to drop into the low to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Warm temperatures continue.

- A low chance for precipitation for CSRA Thursday.

Upper ridging and surface high pressure continue to be the
driving force in the weather for Wednesday, which keeps the area
warm and dry. Temperatures are expected to be several degrees
above normal. A shortwave trough moves toward the Southeast
Wednesday, then passing over on Thursday and weakening. Most of
the precipitation associated with this shortwave is forecast to
be wrung out as it passes over the mountains. However, there is
a low (<30%) that some showers are able to make it into the CSRA
Thursday afternoon into the evening. Temperatures on Thursday
remain on the warmer side, but are expected to be slightly
cooler than Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Increasing confidence with the timing of the next chance for
  widespread rain, forecast to arrive late next weekend.

- Dry and seasonable conditions expected to start the next week.

The shortwave is forecast to be replaced with a temporary ridge
on Friday, allowing for temperatures to warm back up. A stout
upper low and associated trough approach the area into the
weekend, causing a cold front to move toward the region. Ahead
of the front on Saturday, southwest flow is forecast to usher in
more moisture as well as some instability. Therefore chances for
showers and some embedded thunderstorms return to the area for
Saturday. As the cold front moves through for the second half of
the weekend, guidance is in pretty good agreement with the
timing of the front so confidence is increasing in this
occurring. Widespread rain and possibly thunderstorms are
anticipated for Sunday. Despite the agreement in model guidance,
it`s still 6 days out, so timing could change. Once this front
and associated precipitation move out, dry air returns to begin
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clear skies with northwesterly winds.

As low pressure shifts eastward, clear skies are in place over
the terminals. Winds will remain out of the WNW through the TAF
period. High confidence in VFR conditions with winds generally
around 5 to 10 knots. Winds become light and variable this
evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Next chance of widespread
restrictions will be late Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$