247
FXUS62 KCAE 210034
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
834 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Above average temperatures and increased chances for
  showers and storms continue through Tuesday.

- 2. Rain expected on Wednesday, with cooler and drier
  conditions likely by late week and next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Above average temperatures and increased chances
for showers and storms continue through Tuesday.

A few isolated showers and storms near the western Midlands and
CSRA have all but diminished this afternoon/evening. The
overall pattern begins to shift early this coming week. The
dominant ridging that we have grown accustomed to since last
week will begin to break down and yield troughing by the middle
of the week. At the same time, a strong surface high pressure
moving into southeastern Canada will push a backdoor front
towards us on Tuesday and then Wednesday. Ahead of this,
compressional heating and early sunshine should result in well
above normal temps both Monday and Tuesday, with highs forecast
in the low to mid 90s. Scattered showers and storms are expected
across the area during the afternoon and evening, with
widespread coverage probable by Tuesday evening as forcing
improves.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain expected on Wednesday, with cooler and
drier conditions likely by late week and next weekend.

Lets be honest, we have all been waiting for this specific
forecast for a while now. Ensemble and operational models are
finally showing a favorable setup for reasonable, fall-like
temperatures here in South Carolina and Georgia beginning on
Wednesday. We are likely to see wedge conditions develop behind
the backdoor front sometime on Wednesday. The timing and
location of the front during the day on Wednesday is uncertain,
and there is some spread amongst the guidance as to when it
pushes in. The NAM (soon to be retired but the best at CAD
setups) is the most aggressive with the passage of said backdoor
front, pushing it south of the area by Wednesday afternoon.
That seems unlikely but there is a high bust potential with
temps wednesday afternoon as the placement of the front will
dictate our temps. Beyond Wednesday, the weather is increasingly
looking more pleasant. Guidance is in good agreement that deep
troughing will overtake the eastern US, leading to northwesterly
flow and drier air over our area from THursday into next
weekend. The first taste of Fall is expected, with highs in the
upper 70s and lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.
This forecaster could cry tears of joy at this.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fog possible tonight, but most likely at AGS and OGB.

As convective debris clouds clear through the night, nearly calm
winds should favor fog development around sunrise. Models have
been somewhat consistent favoring IFR restrictions at fog prone
AGS and OGB, as well as the new AIK TAF site. MVFR is more
likely at the other sites. It remains to be seen whether
restrictions will be limited to right around sunrise or more
persistent, so for now we continued the TEMPO groups at all
sites. Restrictions should lift by 14 or 15Z. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible again on Monday afternoon however
coverage is expected to be too low to be included in the TAFs at
this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain chances and widespread
restrictions are most likely Tuesday through Thursday as
moisture advection increases and wedge conditions develop.
Seasonal, early morning cig/vis restrictions will remain
possible early this week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ND/PL
AVIATION...CJR