Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
038 FXUS62 KCAE 021728 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1228 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier air filters into the forecast area this afternoon into tonight. High pressure brings cool and dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday. The next storm system approaches late Thursday or Thursday night with another period of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall on Friday. Unsettled weather may continue into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Rain is gradually ending across the area as dry air works into the forecast area. - Clouds should slowly diminish as the afternoon goes along, with some redeveloping overnight tonight. Upper level trough axis is shifting eastward across the area with forcing moving eastward along with it. Rainfall has quickly moved out of the area, with isolated, light showers continuing across the eastern forecast area. Low clouds continue to hang around across the area and probably will continue to hang around this afternoon as dry air overspreads the area aloft and helps redevelop a subsidence inversion. Doubt that temps are gonna get much warmer than 50F across the area as it seems unlikely that we see sufficient clearing prior to the sun beginning to set, but some areas, especially in the west, could see enough clearing to get above 50F. Tonight, there is some uncertainty with respect to overall cloud cover casting uncertainty on the overall forecast. HREF and REFS probabilities for low clouds are >50% across the CSRA, especially between 1a and 7a. So expecting temperatures to be a lot warmer there than elsewhere, with temps falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s where clouds clear and staying in the upper 30s where clouds redevelop. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Cool and dry weather expected Wednesday and Thursday. - The next storm system moves towards the region late Thursday or Thursday night. Wednesday and Wednesday Night: High pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley at the start of the period, passing to the north of the FA Wednesday night. Cool and dry weather conditions are expected with forecast highs in the lower to mid 50s. Winds become light and variable at night and combine with mainly clear skies to allow temperatures to fall into the lower to mid 30s, with a few spots in the upper 20s. Thursday and Thursday Night: Southwesterly flow around departing high pressure will promote warm air and moisture advection. Clouds will increase through the daytime hours as the next storm system develops over the western Gulf, though any significant rain should hold off until after dark. It should be warmer on Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Rain chances increase as the night goes on with precipitation moving into the CSRA prior to daybreak. The clouds and rain limit cooling with lows ranging from the mid-30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key message(s): - Another round of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall is expected on Friday. - Unsettled weather may continue through the remainder of the extended as temperatures remain below seasonal values. Rain is expected to overspread the FA on Friday as an area of low pressure emerges from the Gulf. Another period of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall is expected, though timing may be later in the day compared to today`s storm. Model guidance continues to remain divergent regarding the weather during the weekend and rain chances may continue into the remainder of the extended. Temperatures during the long term are likely to remain below normal as broad troughing holds strong across the eastern and central CONUS. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IFR conditions expected for the next few hours, with clouds gradually scattering and lifting to MVFR for some of the night. VFR is likely to return to everyone late in this period, but uncertainty exist prior to that. IFR and LIFR conditions continue at this hour at all sites as plentiful low-level moisture hangs around the area. Very dry air,in the form of PWs below half an inch, is forecast to push into the area quickly today as the overall system driving this moves eastward quickly. There is uncertainty as to how long the restrictions are going to last into the overnight hours. Winds shift out of the northwest this afternoon but they aren`t very strong at any one time, leaving a lot to be desired from a clearing perspective. There is a ton of low level moisture across the area given we had plenty of rain with this event. Combine that with subsidence from the departing system and dry air aloft and this favors restrictions hanging on longer than guidance suggests. Will forecast this, using TEMPO groups and predominant groups to get the message across. IT looks like the midlands sites could see restrictions lift by late tonight, with the Augusta sites seeing MVFR cigs through mid morning tomorrow. Regardless, the TAFs will have ceiling restrictions in them for much of the period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Mainly vfr through mid-week, then additional restrictions possible late in the week with the next system. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$