518
FXUS62 KCAE 230008
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
808 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler weather is expected for Friday and Saturday with dry air
in place. A more seasonable pattern returns on Sunday as warm
front lifts north of the region, with temperatures rising back
to near or above normal and a chance of rain each day through
the end of the long term.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Winds decreasing this evening

Cold front is moving through the CWA this evening, ushering in
some modified polar air. The tight pressure gradient that caused
this afternoon`s gusty winds is relaxing as the low pressure
area south of New England moves northward further away from the
area. Therefore, I have let the Lake Wind Advisory expire at 8
PM.

Hi-red models are backing off the chances of showers toward
morning, and current upstream obs support the diminishing
chances, so I lowered the POPs accordingly.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Light showers possible early on Friday as a front pushes
  through. Breezy conditions expected thereafter.
- Cool weather likely for Friday and Saturday.

Beautiful weather is expected to start your Memorial Day weekend
across the forecast area. But just prior to the great weather, a
weak cold front will push into and through the area early on
Friday, potentially sparking some light showers across the
southern half of the forecast area prior to noon Friday. Precip
totals are expected to be quite low, generally around a few
hundredths (if it rains at all). BEcause of this, have
introduced some slight chance PoPs that generally lower
throughout the afternoon on Friday. The front is expected to
push to our south and east by this point, with low PW air
filtering in thereafter. The weather after this is forecast to
be tremendous on Friday afternoon and Saturday. Temps are
forecast to reside in the upper 70s and low 80s for highs both
days, with dewpoints in the mid 40s to low 50s each afternoon.
It`ll be truly a beautiful stretch of weather. This looks to end
by Saturday night as the aforementioned cold front begins to
slide northward as a warm front and increase moisture values
again by late Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Seasonable temperatures return within zonal flow or low
  amplitude ridging
- More active weather is expected beginning on Sunday, with
  daily chances of showers/storms existing into early next week

As we move towards Memorial day, the weather pattern looks much
more active. This begins on Sunday as the front lifts northward
towards the area in response to lift initiated by an increase in
low amplitude ridging across the area. Guidance is in good
agreement that the front will be parallel to northwesterly flow
aloft, with shortwaves potentially pushing southeastward within
this pattern. Along and south of the boundary, there is a signal
for robust destabilization. The end result is a chance for
showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon. This could end up
being a sneaky strong/severe storm threat, especially if the
solutions with a robust shortwave end up being correct. Given
the change in airmass, high temps are expected to bump back up
to near normal in the mid and upper 80s (especially along and
south of the boundary. This looks like it will be a persistent
story into early next week as the pattern looks somewhat
stagnant at least through Tuesday. Guidance differs on
amplitude of an approaching trough by Tues/Wed but the signal is
there right now, with pretty high confidence in continued
shower/storm chances both Monday and Tuesday with at least a
threat of isolated strong storms each afternoon. It is unclear
whether a focused low develops with the aformentioned trough by
mid-week, which casts uncertainty on the extent of
showers/storms by the end of the period. However, in general, it
looks like we may remain unsettled as we get into the middle to
end of next week as warm and moist air will be easily
accessible to any approaching system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period.

Windy conditions will begin to diminish after 01z this evening as
low-level inversion begins to set up across the area.  Westerly
winds will drop to between 5 and 10 knots through 08z, then become
light and variable through sunrise.  Winds around 2k feet
will remain somewhat elevated however around 25-30 knots, so
not quite LLWS criteria but close overnight.  As mixing begins once
again Friday by 16z, westerly winds will increase to between 10-15
knots with higher gusts possible through the afternoon hours.  As
for clouds and visibilities, vfr conditions will prevail through the
period.  A shortwave moving across the region late tonight and into
Friday morning may bring an increase in mid-upper level cloudiness,
with some broken conditions possible.  However ceilings will be
12kft or higher.  Can not rule out a sprinkle as the shortwave moves
through, but with high ceilings and some drier air still in place,
that should be all that occurs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions should prevail through
the weekend, then brief restrictions become possible early next week
due to diurnal convection.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...