714
FXUS62 KCAE 060001
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
701 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of light right remain possible overnight in the eastern
Midlands with drizzle possible elsewhere. Unsettled weather
then continues into the weekend and potentially into early next
week. Dry conditions are then anticipated for the mid to late
week period while temperatures remain below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Low clouds, light rain/drizzle, and possible patchy fog
  remain overnight and into Saturday morning.

Light rain continues to move across the southeastern Midlands
this evening along a moisture gradient with PWAT`s near 1"
across the central Midlands, increasing up to 1.3-1.4" toward
the eastern Midlands and Coastal Plain. The better isentropic
lift has shifted closer to the coast and thus this shift in the
band of rain. Overnight tonight, periods of light rain are
expected to continue mainly in the far southeastern Midlands as
solid moisture transport continues with the main upper trough
remaining off to the west. Elsewhere, low stratus should remain
locked in place overnight with an abundance of low level
moisture that could bring some drizzle. Patchy fog cannot be
ruled out as well. Temperatures should not budge too much
overnight with copious cloud cover, only falling into the mid to
upper 40s. A couple northern spots could be in the upper 30s to
low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Widespread showers Saturday, especially south of I-20 but
  trending drier Sunday.
- Below average temperatures continue.

By Saturday morning, a relatively strong moisture gradient will be
in place across the area with HREF mean PWATs near a half an inch in
the NW portion of the forecast area and closer to an inch in the
southeastern area. Forecast soundings show sufficient moisture in
the upper and low levels to continue to support widespread clouds,
although HiRes guidance is indicating lower clouds scouring out in
the western portion of the forecast area through the day. While
moisture may not be as high as Friday, a more well defined shortwave
will approach from the west which will likely lead to widespread
rain showers south of I-20, with rain chances decreasing north. Rain
is expected to be generally light with blended guidance indicating
around 50 percent probability of total rainfall less than a quarter
inch in the southeasternmost portion of the area (where the most
rain will fall in the area). Another cool day expected Saturday with
highs a couple degrees warmer than Friday, generally in the low 50s.
Model consensus continues to trend towards drier air pushing in
Saturday night into Sunday which will lead to decreasing clouds and
temperatures expected to drop into the 30s.

LREF mean PWATs continue to trend lower for Sunday as latest runs
indicate around 60-80 percent probability of PWATs less than a half
inch. A gradual warming trend continues to be indicated by blended
guidance with temperatures a couple degrees warmer than Saturday,
although highs still expected to remain below seasonal average with
clouds lingering into Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Upper trough moves through Monday with additional rain
  chances.
- Drier and colder air mass settles over the region through
  midweek.

Uncertainty next week in regards to the timing of a strong upper
trough that will pass through Monday at some time Monday. While
moisture continues to be limited, blended guidance favors a slight
chance of showers with strong forcing. Higher confidence that behind
this trough, a colder air mass settles over the forecast area with
GEFS and EC ensemble means indicated 500mb heights around one
standard deviation below normal. Blended guidance continues to show
high confidence in temperatures well below normal early next week
with some moderation towards the end of the long term period,
although still below average. Dry weather and below average PWATs
expected to continue beyond Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIFR and IFR conditions are expected through the majority of the
period.

Persistent moisture continues to funnel into the area from the
southwest. Consistent showers are expected to impact AGS, DNL,
and especially OGB throughout the evening with IFR-LIFR cigs and
some reduced vsby; CAE and CUB should only deal with some light
drizzle, but LIFR cigs are likely to develop from 00z onward
along with modest vsby impacts. This will continue into Saturday
morning, with IFR-LIFR cigs and vsby through at least 13-14z for
all TAF sites. Slow improvement is likely by the late morning
for all TAF sites with the exception of OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Rain chances diminish Sunday and
into the early week, but ceiling restrictions may remain in
place at least part of Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$