Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
932 FXUS62 KCAE 300043 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 743 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry weather conditions remain in place again today. A few showers are possible along and ahead of a cold front on Sunday. A period of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected with the next storm system Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure then builds back in for Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Key message(s): - Moisture steadily pushing in aloft, with warmer temps expected overnight compared to the last few. Cloud cover is quickly returning this evening across the region as strengthening southwesterly moisture advection ramps up aloft between 850-500mb. Dry surface air remains entrenched but an overcast shield of stratus around 5k feet is now overspreading. This should remain fairly locked in overnight and will notably impact overnight temps. So despite surface dew points down into the mid- 10`s, radiational cooling will be limited and temps will likely only sneak into the 30`s. The cloud cover is more persistent, thick, and widespread the majority of guidance, so trending this forecast more towards the warmest of the distribution. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Mainly cloudy and warmer on Sunday with a few showers possible along and ahead of an approaching cold front. - Cooler and drier on Monday with rain moving in during the evening and overnight hours. Sunday and Sunday Night: An area of low pressure over Southern Michigan moves quickly northeast across Ontario and Quebec, dragging a cold front through the region. While a few showers could be triggered by WAA and isentropic lift, the best rain chances should be associated with the frontal passage during the afternoon and evening hours. Guidance continues to favor a large northwest to southeast temperature gradient with highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s to the mid-60s. Drier air filters in behind the cold front but most locations remain mainly cloudy with temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s north and the lower to mid 40s in the Southern Midlands and CSRA. Monday and Monday Night: High pressure will be to the north and northeast promoting the development of in-situ wedge conditions across the FA. PWATs are expected to be between 0.5 and 1 inches at the start of the day, increasing quickly during the evening and overnight hours as low pressure in the western Gulf rapidly moves off to the northeast towards South Carolina. It`ll be a cooler and mainly cloudy day but the majority of the rain should hold off unlikely after nightfall. Rain chances rise quickly at night and may be heavy at times towards daybreak. Highs will end up in the 50s, falling into the mid-30s to mid-40s at night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key message(s): - Widespread rain is expected on Tuesday morning, ending from west to east during the afternoon and evening hours, followed by clearing skies at night. - Cool and dry Wednesday and Thursday. - Another storm system may emerge from the Gulf on Friday. Low pressure will be near the FA at the start of the extended, quickly moving northeast. Timing differences remain with the deterministic GFS being faster than the Euro. Widespread moderate to heavy rain is expected Tuesday morning, tapering off in the afternoon and ending by evening. The rain may be heavy at times, potentially causing nuisance flooding but the overall threat for flash flooding is low. High pressure builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday and will result in cool and dry weather until at least Thursday. Another storm system may emerge from the Gulf near the end of next week but confidence is low due to large differences in the model guidance. Daytime temperatures will be below normal and nighttime temperatures will be near to below normal through the extended. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Increasing clouds overnight ahead of an approaching weak cold front with CIGS generally low-end VFR around 3.5-5kft MSL. It is possible a few sites briefly drop to MVFR, but confidence is low through 12z. Sunday, some guidance including the SREF is showing the potential for MVFR CIGS developing mid to late morning as the frontal boundary and possible -SHRA move into the region. However, confidence is still limited at this time. Better chances for restrictions should occur Sunday afternoon. Surface winds diminish to less than 5 kts overnight into Sunday morning with a prevailing E/NE direction. Winds then becoming WLY/NWLY behind the front Sunday afternoon/evening, but should remain light. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low level moisture increases into Sunday which will lead to higher chances for restrictions and widespread rain from Sunday into early next week, but especially on Tuesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$