202
FXUS62 KCAE 051848
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
248 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe weather potential increases over the weekend as an
active weather pattern develops. Conditions are favorable for
several rounds of thunderstorms to push through the Southeast
late this week and over the weekend. The active weather pattern
will likely persist through the long term with a high chance to
likely PoPs most days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered showers/storms mainly in the eastern Midlands
  before diminishing tonight.

The upper trough is moving overhead this afternoon as it
continues toward the northeast with an inverted surface trough
and developing surface low noted into the Pee Dee region at this
time. This surface low is forming along the stalled frontal
boundary that is draped across the northern Midlands into the
Pee Dee. South of this boundary, Some breaks in clouds have
been seen as temperatures here have risen into the low to mid
80s but areas north of the boundary have kept clouds and are
only reaching into the mid to upper 70s. As heating has
occurred, scattered showers/storms have formed mainly south of
I-20 across the eastern Midlands. Convection has generally
struggled in this environment despite MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg with
forcing remaining fairly weak as the trough pivots to the
northeast and the surface low continues out of the FA. The
severe threat with any additional storms this afternoon is very
low and The biggest hazard in any convection is the potential
for heavy rainfall with high PWAT`s (1.8") and possible
localized flooding in any training convection.

Shower/storm chances in the eastern Midlands wind down this
evening and dry conditions are then expected into the overnight
as subsidence and drier air move into the region. Cloud cover is
a bit tricky overnight as a good amount of model and sounding
guidance show enough lingering low level moisture overnight for
another scattered to broken morning stratus deck, thus keeping
temperatures toward the mid to upper 60s. If this deck does not
fully materialize temperatures may fall a bit lower into Friday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Severe weather possible on Saturday and Sunday
- Damaging wind gusts along a line of storms is the main threat
- Timing of the storms would most likely be late afternoon

The upper level pattern becomes more zonal in the short term.
This will allow several rounds of shortwave troughs to move
across the Southeast with the main/strongest shortwave moving
through on Sunday. The timing of the shortwaves and how they
coincide with peak heating will be one of the largest
determining factors for severe weather potential over the next
few days. These disturbances should support convection across
the Ohio/TN River Valley earlier in the day and into the
afternoon as storms grow upscale into larger MCSs. There`s
indication that these MCSs could dig into central SC and the
CSRA bringing a threat of damaging winds late in the day.

Friday appears least favorable for severe weather due to the
timing of the shortwave and associated thunderstorms. The HREF
and CAMs generally show a line of storms approaching the FA in
the evening or overnight but weakening significantly as
instability wanes. Unless the timing changes to be significantly
earlier the chances for severe weather Friday appears low. On
Saturday and Sunday however, the timing of the shortwaves
appears to be more in line with peak heating. EFI CAPE values of
around 0.5 and median NBM CAPE values of around 1500 J/kg
indicate some potential for a strengthening line of storms as
MCSs work into the region from the west. Moderate 0-3 km shear
values of 15 to 20 km from speed shear but relatively weak deep
layer and 0-1 km shear values are supportive of a convective
line with damaging wind swaths being the main threat on Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Active weather pattern continues in the long term

Global ensembles favor troughing developing over the eastern US
in the long term as shortwave energy swings into the broader
trough. SW flow is likely to strengthen as the upper trough
amplifies allowing deep moisture advection into the forecast
area. IVT from the NAEFS approaches the 98th percentile for this
time of year showing the potential for strong moisture
advection ahead of a cold front, particularly on Tuesday.
Shortwave activity, strong moisture transport and convergence
ahead of a front all point to an active weather pattern with a
high chance to likely PoPs each day of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR ceilings at TAF sites this afternoon with periods of MVFR
ceilings. Scattered showers/storms move through the area this
afternoon before returning restrictions are expected overnight.

VFR ceilings are now seen at all TAF sites with periods of high
end MVFR ceilings as 5-10 kt winds have shifted out of the
southwest to west behind a surface low moving into the Pee Dee
region. Winds will continue toward the west and west-northwest
through the afternoon/evening before becoming light and variable
overnight tonight. Scattered showers and isolated storms are
seen mainly south of AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB, but near OGB, and thus I
kept mention of VCSH for the the aforementioned terminals but
did add a TEMPO for SHRA at OGB. This activity clears into the
evening and despite drier air moving in overnight, another
stratus deck is expected to form, though model guidance suggests
this should be a bit more scattered. Due to this, there is
lower confidence in IFR restrictions associated with this deck
while there is higher confidence in MVFR restrictions mainly at
CAE/CUB/OGB after 06-08z, lasting into mid morning Friday. Some
patchy fog will be possible overnight as well with lingering
moisture. Overall, expect MVFR restrictions overnight tonight
with possible periods of IFR before conditions clear into Friday
afternoon with a return to VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture remains in place over the area
through much of the period, leading to potential early morning
restrictions and diurnal convection each day.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$