026
FXUS62 KCAE 231130
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
730 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to widespread showers and storms expected again today
with the potential for heavy rain and localized flash flooding,
mainly south and west of the I-26 corridor. Cooler temperatures
are also expected today due to developing upper troughing.
Shower and storm chances then begin to diminish tomorrow,
continuing into the week ahead. After a brief warm up to start
the week, drier and cooler air pushes into the region for the
rest of the week after the passage of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Heavy rainfall possible today, mainly south and west of I-26.
  A Flood Watch remains in effect through the day.

- Another relatively cool day is also expected.

Early morning hours: Some scattered showers are currently
pushing into the CSRA and southern Midlands from the Coastal
Plain. These showers appear to be very efficient rain makers
given how low the visibilities drop as they pass over ASOS/AWOS
stations. Expect these scattered showers to continue into
daybreak as abundant moisture remains in place over the region
along with a surface boundary lingering south of the forecast
area.

Today and tonight: Upper trough over the Southeast is forecast
to remain nearly stationary through near term period. A larger
scale trough from the Upper Midwest is forecast to trek into the
Great Lakes region and begin phasing with the trough overhead.
At the surface, a boundary is expected to linger south of the
forecast area likely remaining there, bringing shower and storm
chances to much of the area today. Because of the location of
the boundary, the highest chances for showers and storms are for
locations south and west of the I-26 corridor. The atmosphere
remains very saturated, especially in CSRA and southern Midlands
where PWATs are expected to remain over 2" through the day, with
slightly lower values north and east of I-26. With recent
rainfalls, the soils also are saturated in areas. Therefore,
there is potential for some flash flooding today and will keep
the Flood Watch going. There is some question how far north the
heavy rain will make it today and I am not super confident that
it will make it to the Columbia metro area, but will leave them
in the watch because of the amount of moisture in the atmosphere
and any fluctuation north of the boundary could bring heavier
rain into the Columbia metro. Slightly drier air begins to push
into the region tonight, which should limit precipitation
chances tonight into early Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Slightly drier on Sunday as a coastal low lifts away from the
region

- Upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes and drives a cold
front through by Monday

- Warm temperatures expected on Monday then turning cooler Monday
night

Sunday and Sunday Night: A digging upper trough over the upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes region will phase with the weak upper
trough across the southeastern states on Sunday resulting in a weak
coastal low that will lift northeastward through the day. The
northerly flow on the back side of the departing coastal low will
bring some drier air over the forecast area at least early in the
day with PWATs at or below 1.5 inches. A cold front will approach
from the west by Sunday evening as strong shortwave moves into the
Ohio Valley region which eventually will push the front into the
forecast area by early Monday morning. Expect isolated to scattered
convection mainly focused over the eastern Midlands closer to the
deeper moisture on Sunday. The much lower PWATs should lower the
flooding threat that we have experienced the past couple of days.
Temperatures should be warmer with highs in the mid 80s while
overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 60s to around 70
degrees.

Monday and Monday Night: The frontal boundary should traverse the
forecast area early Monday and be located near the eastern Midlands
and Coastal Plain by afternoon peak heating with some weak
instability forecast resulting in a slight chance of storms in the
far eastern Midlands. The much drier and cooler air mass will
gradually build into the region on Monday but temperatures should
remain quite warm, near normal, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Northwesterly cold advection expected Monday night with lows dipping
into the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Dry weather and seasonably cooler temperatures

A much awaited reprieve from the heat and humidity of summer will
arrive next week. Ensemble means show a positively tilted upper
trough moving through the eastern third of the country on Tue/Wed
with the upper troughing lingering through the end of the week. This
will bring a much cooler and drier air mass to the forecast area as
NAEFS ESAT shows temperatures at all levels from 500mb to the
surface at or below the 10th percentile with 700/850mb temps near
climatological minimums Tuesday through Thursday. This should result
in temperatures around 10 degrees below normal with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s,
with some possible upper 50s in the northern and western Midlands
Wed/Thu nights.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mix of conditions expected through the forecast period.

MVFR to IFR ceilings with periodic showers causing reduced
visibility at times continue to affect AGS and DNL this morning.
Expect this to continue for the next several hours. The shower
activity and lower ceilings could affect OGB at times as well.
Confidence is lower at CAE and CUB for lower ceilings or shower
activity, so adjusted latest TAFs to reflect the latest thinking.
Ceilings are expected to improve to VFR around 00z everywhere with
shower activity diminishing. Although shower activity should be
over, some fog is possible in the more fog prone areas like AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A drier air mass will arrive behind a
cold front on Monday, likely putting an end to restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Flood Watch through late tonight for SCZ018-020-025>028-030-
     031-035-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...Flood Watch through late tonight for GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...