597
FXUS62 KCAE 050946
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
446 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds this morning as a disturbance approaches the
region. Cooler temperatures anticipated today due to in-situ
wedging. Expect well above normal temperatures for the end of
the week and into the weekend with near record highs possible.
A series of weak disturbances and weak fronts will promote a
chance of showers through much of the extended.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Increasing clouds and cooler temps due to in-situ wedging.
- Slight chance for showers this evening into tonight.


High pressure over the Great Lakes/Northeast is beginning to
wedge its way southward toward the forecast area. Some lower
cloud cover is developing in association with this wedge over
the Outer Banks. Meanwhile, upper ridging with the axis just to
our west is starting to flatten some as a shortwave trough is
moving out of the Rockies this morning. High clouds associated
with this shortwave disturbance are starting to stream over the
region while lower clouds are being noted west of the
Appalachians. Expect the high pressure to continue to wedge
southward through the day as the disturbance by the Rockies
approaches from the west, flattening the ridge as it does. Flow
at 850 mb shifts to more southwesterly as cooler air at the
surface keeps getting ushered in from the north. Expect cloud
cover to increase through the day and temperatures to be
generally cooler than Tuesday. However, there is quite a bit
uncertainty in just how far south the wedge can spread, which
will play a big role in high temperatures. Latest guidance
suggests that it won`t be as prominent as previous forecasts, so
have increased temps for most areas with the general exception
of the northwestern portions of the forecast area. Given the
uncertainty confidence is not super high in the forecast temps
today.

As the disturbance continues to approach, chances for shower
activity increase this evening into the overnight hours. The
better lift is expected to remain to our north, so any precip
that does fall should be light. Chances for precip begin to wane
near daybreak on Thursday. With the cloud cover lingering
overnight, temps should remain rather mild.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Well above normal temperatures and breezy winds

A shortwave trough will be exiting the region early Thursday
morning as westerly winds aloft lead to drier air moving over
the forecast area. At the surface, ridging will weaken over the
Carolinas as the parent high moves further offshore. This
pattern of lingering low level moisture and a weakening near-
surface wedge of cold air typically leads to low clouds sticking
around for longer than model projections. For that reason,
cloud cover could stay in place for much of Thursday morning.
Although clouds could linger longer than expected, we expect
them to eventually break as a 30 to 35 kt jet mixes through the
inversion. This will allow temperatures to rise into the 70s in
the afternoon with SW gusts around 20 mph. Temperatures
overnight will be well above normal with lows in the upper 50s.
Winds should stay up overnight which will help limit the threat
of widespread fog, although patchy fog is still possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- High temperatures near record values Friday through Sunday

A zonal flow pattern over the Southeast continues to be favored
through this weekend. A series of upper level troughs will move
across the northern portions of the CONUS during this period
causing a pair of fronts to sag into Southeast late this week
then late this weekend or early next week. Expect well above
normal temperatures from Friday to Sunday for most of the area.
Highs generally will range from the mid 70s to around 80s
degrees with the exception of the northern Midlands which will
be a bit cooler, especially Saturday where the first front could
encroach on the northern portion of the CWA. Record highs
through the weekend are around 80 degrees each day which won`t
be out of the question. Cooler air may push into the region
early next week however the IQR values from the NBM for highs at
the end of the long term are about 20 degrees, pointing to the
uncertainty in the positioning of the front and colder air mass.

Mean PWAT values from the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles consistently
range from 1 to 1.25 inches throughout much of the long term.
Although moisture advection is not particularly strong in the
deterministic runs at any point, shortwave troughs moving
through the zonal flow and the proximity of frontal boundaries
may trigger showers through the end of the long term. There is
at least a slight chance of rain each day but the highest rain
chances will be towards the end of the long term when a stronger
front should cross into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions continue with MVFR likely at CAE/CUB/OGB near
daybreak. MVFR to IFR likely after 00z.

High clouds beginning to move over the northern portions of the
area, while lower clouds are being noted over TN at the start of
the TAF period. Expect cloud cover to increase through daybreak.
Although guidance has scaled back a bit with regards to
ceilings, still thinking MVFR ceilings are likely at CAE/CUB/OGB
by about 12z. Confidence is low at AGS/DNL for MVFR ceilings.
Ceilings are anticipated to remain in the same flight category
through much of the day. Confidence continues to increase that
restrictions develop after 00z. There remains a chance for
showers after about 22z at CAE/CUB/OGB as well, so have kept the
PROB30 groups there.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible
into Thursday morning. Periodic showers over the weekend could
cause restrictions at times.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$