999
FXUS62 KCAE 050043
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
843 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and storms possible again today as a weak surface
boundary sits over the area. Late this weekend and early next
week moisture returns to the region as low pressure develops
off of the Southeast coast. As the low moves away from the
region we return to near normal rain chances through the
remainder of the long term.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Lingering showers this evening should diminish after midnight.

Scattered convection continues to persist this evening on
outflow boundaries across the Midlands. Storms have been
overperforming with seemingly routine storms producing strong
wind gusts in excess of 35-40 mph within an environment
characterized by DCAPE values over 1200 J/kg and PWATs around
1.6-1.7 inches.

Expect these storms to dissipate later into the evening with
the loss of heating. Outside of gusty winds associated with
thunderstorm outflow boundaries winds should diminish to around
5 mph or less after 9-10pm through the remainder of the night.
Fog is not expected to be a concern Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Surface low pressure situated offshore
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms

A diffuse surface boundary will remain over the region with
relatively dry air over the western FA. A developing surface
low off of the GA/SC coast will wrap moisture into the
Lowcountry and eastern Midlands with PWAT values up to 1.75
inches in the eastern Midlands. With more moisture in place than
the previous day we would expect isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms for areas south and east of I-20. The
HRRR and NAM seem to be at odds with the depth of mixing
occurring on Saturday afternoon while the GFS is somewhere
between showing some weak potential instability over the area to
support convection. It will be breezy as the low approaches and
the pressure gradient tightens but gusts should remain limited
to around 25 mph, below Lake Wind Advisory criteria. Saturday
night the low could meander a little further towards the coast
leading to a chance of rain through the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Tropical Depression Three has formed off the coast
- Moisture returns to the region in the long term

The first portion of the long term, from Sunday through Monday,
will largely depend on the positioning of TD3 currently sitting
offshore. Models tend to be in a little more agreement today on
shifting the low west and bringing stronger moisture advection
into the forecast area. This would likely bring rainfall into
SC/NC but otherwise winds should remain below any product
criteria in central SC and eastern GA. The deeper moisture
should shift away from the region by mid-week as ridging builds
over the area. This week lead to warming temps with
climatological rain/storm chances. Highs mid-week may climb into
the upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the TAF period.

Lingering convection this evening with possible restrictions
early but otherwise expect VFR conditions through the remainder
of the period. Winds may stay up a bit through 03z given many
outflow boundaries around but winds should diminish to less than
5 knots overnight. Fog/stratus not favored during the predawn
hours, though its possible in areas that received rain which
could expand towards terminals but confidence not high enough to
include at this time. Winds should pick up quickly in the
morning with an increased pressure gradient as winds should
increase to over 10 knots by 13z-15z with gusts over 20 knots
possible through the afternoon. Subsidence around newly formed
TD3 should limit convection across the area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There is the possibility of
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this weekend into
early next week with the potential for periodic restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$