830
FXUS62 KCAE 192318
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
718 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridging will be in control of our weather through
Monday, leading to continued dry weather with above normal
temperatures. The next chance of rain comes on Tuesday from a
cold front which could stall out across the region for the
remainder of the extended.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Above normal temperatures with increasing high level cloud
  cover.

High level cloud cover from an upstream system is beginning to
filter over the area this evening. Expect this clouds to be
around for most of the overnight, which will help to keep
temperatures on the warmer side with lows generally in the lower
60s.

Low level moisture is expected to remain relatively high
overnight into the morning hours, which could produce some
patchy river fog near daybreak. The latest HREF guidance is
showing the potential in this as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Upper ridging and high pressure to the east keeps the region
  dry with above normal temperatures.

Ridging is expected to continued into this period, slowly
breaking down and becoming more zonal by Monday night as a sharp
shortwave pushes into the northeastern US. Heights will still be
above normal regardless, leading to highs generally in the upper
80s across the area. The cold front continues to slow down a bit
each model run, not arriving until Tuesday at the earliest. So
expect fair weather cumulus (at most) both days, with benign
weather dominating the pattern. Overnight lows are generally
expected to be in the low 60s as moisture increases along the
western side of the surface high.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Rain chances return on Tuesday as a cold front stalls near the
  region. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through
  Friday.

- Temperatures remain above seasonal values despite the
  anticipated clouds and rain.

Strong western Atlantic surface high pressure is still forecast
to be in place across the region on Tuesday. As the forcing for
the surface low pushes into the northeast and takes the parent
low along with it, the surface cold front continues to slow down
within model guidance - to the point that rain chances continue
lowering on Tuesday. The front is likely to hang up somewhere to
the north of the forecast area on Tuesday and may not get any
closer than that. Despite this, isolated showers are possible
on Tuesday across the northern forecast area. Thereafter, shower
and storm chances do look a bit better on Wed/Thur/Fri as
moisture continues to increase. This should result in more
afternoon instability across the area, and with guidance showing
some weak shortwaves progressing eastward within zonal mid and
upper level flow, chances for showers/storms should improve.
Regardless, there is a bit of uncertainty in this though given
how the guidance has trended over the last few days. Highs and
lows through the period are expected to be well above normal in
the mid/upper 80s and low/mid 60s. Severe weather doesn`t look
like it will be a widespread issue; though, it does appear that
the stage will be set for our first pulse thunderstorms of the
season which could result in an isolated instance of a strong
storm or two.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Other than a little early morning ground fog at the usually
susceptible terminals, predominantly VFR conditions expected
through the TAF period.

Winds are beginning to diminish as expected with the loss of
daytime heating, and should remain 5 knots or less during the
nighttime hours. Cirrus will increase in coverage tonight as
the upper ridge axis shifts east, should not cause any issues at
the terminals. Given that we had some ground fog at AGS and OGB
this morning, I see no reason why we won`t get it again from
08Z-12Z, which could temporarily lead to MVFR, or even IFR
conditions. Chances of IFR are low enough not to have in the
TAFs for now, so went with MVFR vsbys instead. Any restrictions
should clear up quickly, with VFR expected of the remainder of
Sunday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A front approaches the region early
next week supporting potential restrictions and possible
rainfall into mid week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$