445
FXUS62 KCAE 061823
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
223 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple showers/storms possible this afternoon and evening but
severe weather potential increases starting tomorrow with
another round possible Sunday as an active weather pattern
develops. Conditions are favorable for several rounds of
thunderstorms to push through the Southeast into early next
week. This active weather pattern will likely persist through
much of the long term with a high chance to likely PoPs most
days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms possible late this
  afternoon and into this evening.

Satellite imagery is show mostly to partly sunny skies with a
developing cumulus field across the the FA, with some agitated
cumulus noted. Strong insolation has allowed temperatures to
reach into the upper 80s for most spots this afternoon with a
couple areas likely reaching 90 as dewpoints are near 70F. This
has allowed just over 1000 J/kg of ML CAPE to develop, but with
little in the way of forcing, and even some weak height rises,
convection has remained largely suppressed so far. There will
still be the chance for an isolated shower/storm late this
afternoon as some spots may reach the convective temp mainly
into the southern CSRA and eastern Midlands, but the main item
of note this evening into tonight is an approaching shortwave
that is currently moving into the Tennessee Valley, driving a
cluster of convection here. This shortwave and its associated
convection will approach the area this evening and into early
tonight where a couple showers/storms toward the northern and
western Midlands maybe possible after 6-8pm until around
midnight. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated a
stronger cell cannot be ruled out, especially anything earlier
in the evening with lingering instability, hence there is a
Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather that reaches
just along and north of I-20. High res models and HREF members
are in fairly good agreement that any convection will quickly
decay, likely before reaching the Columbia Metro, and thus the
rest of the overnight is looking mainly dry, but with lows that
are limited to the low 70s as we keep high dewpoints and cloud
cover overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Severe weather possible on Saturday and Sunday
- Damaging wind gusts along a line of storms is the main threat

A series of shortwave troughs will parade through the Southeast in
the short term contributing to an active weather pattern and severe
weather potential each day. A MCS is expected to push through
the region each afternoon. The timing and track of these
shortwaves and MCSs will determine our potential for severe
weather over the next few days.

Saturday: The warm, moist air mass preceding the MCS on
Saturday will largely favor strengthening as the system
propagates to east/Southeast through the afternoon. PWAT values
from 1.5 inches north to 1.8 inches the CSRA and steep lapse
rates will allow new convection to develop down shear of the
cold pool into the evening hours. Mean mlCAPE values from the
SREF and sbCAPE values from the HREF exceed 2000 J/kg during the
afternoon in the CSRA where moisture is higher. A straight
hodograph and 0-3 km shear values are sufficient to support
organized linear convection but deep layer and 0-1 km
shear/helicity do not favor supercells or tornadoes. CAMs seem
to be trending on slipping the convection further south into the
higher theta-e air mass where it may possibly impact the CSRA
or stay south of the FA entirely. That said there remains a good
deal of uncertainty in the location of the convective system
across the CAMs so we cannot a rule out the threat for our SC
zones either. The main threat will be damaging wind swaths with
a few stronger cells potentially producing hail as well.

Sunday: An upper level trough will dig into the central US and
position us under deep SW flow as a pronounced shortwave moves
across the FA in the afternoon. Atmospheric moisture will be
significantly higher for Sunday morning with PWAT values from
1.8 to 2 inches. This may allow for widespread cloud cover
Sunday morning and potentially a few showers ahead of the
convective system which will form to our west as the shortwave
moves into the southern Appalachians. The clouds ahead of the
potential system should ultimately result in a more stable
airmass than the previous day helping keep highs in the 80s. The
limited diurnal heating and lack of dry air may contribute to a
less potent MCS on Sunday however there remains some potential
for damaging winds if thunderstorms are able to develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Severe thunderstorms possible again on Monday
- Active weather pattern continues in the long term

Upper level troughing will amplify over the eastern US early
next week. This will position the Southeast squarely under SW
flow with strong moisture flux into the region. Shortwave
activity continues to flow over the Deep South and into the Mid-
Atlantic States supporting a continued threat of thunderstorms
and potentially severe weather for Monday. A frontal system
associated with the upper low could move near or into the
forecast area Tuesday and stall. With atmospheric moisture near
or above normal through mid- week and potentially a front over
the area, we can expect a high chance or likely PoPs for most
days in the extended. The upper low may lift out of the area for
the second portion of the week which would usher in drier air,
although this is uncertain as indicated by about as many GEFS
members showing PWAT values above normal as there are below
normal. Thus the chance for showers and thunderstorms remains in
the forecast through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue to be expected through the period at
this time.

SCT cumulus have developed across the region with 5-8 kts winds
out of the west. While a stray shower/storm this afternoon
cannot be ruled out, the coverage would be very limited and
confidence remains too low to add mention to any of the TAF
sites at this time. More high clouds move in for this evening
and into Saturday morning as scattered convection may approach
mainly CAE/CUB between 00-03z, but model guidance continues to
largely have this dissipating before reaching the terminals. The
rest of the overnight sees elevated winds as flow aloft begins
to increase into Saturday and thus, any fog risk looks to be
precluded by this. SCT to BKN high clouds continue into Saturday
morning before more cumulus development is expected by the end
of the period with increasing 8-14kt westerly winds with gusts
up to 18-22 kts possible. Any convection looks to hold off until
the next TAF period at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture remains in place over the
area through much of the period, leading to potential early
morning restrictions and diurnal convection each day.
Thunderstorms over the weekend may also bring restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$