775
FXUS62 KCAE 222346
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
646 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry, cool airmass continues to settle into the region. The
dry weather continues through weekend, with slowly rebounding
temperatures across the area. Cooler temperatures and chances
for rain return toward the second half of the week due to an
approaching system from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Continued dry and cool.

A deep upper trough over the eastern US, along with a surface
low in the Northeast continue to drive cool, dry air into the
forecast area. A shortwave moving across the Southeast has
brought some increased cloud cover which will diminish through
the near term as the short wave moves east. Winds will likely
stay up overnight with a 25 to 30 kt low-level jet. This should
hinder frost development but we can`t rule out some patchy areas
of frost, too isolated for a frost advisory. With lakes
remaining warm, some of the winds in the low-level jet could mix
down overnight, but have decided against another Lake Wind
Advisory for now as guidance keeps wind gusts lower than
threshold values. Another night of chilly temperatures is in
store with lows in the mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Moderating afternoon high temps over the weekend.
- Frost possible early Sunday morning.

Upper level trough axis will be offshore by Saturday morning
with northwest flow aloft across the area becoming zonal Sunday.
Upper heights rise over the weekend and combined with strong
subsidence and downslope flow, expect afternoon temperatures to
be closer to seasonal norms. So highs near 60 Saturday and mid
to upper 60s Sunday. At the surface , a modified air mass from
the northwest U.S. will settle over the area. With a dry air
mass in place and light/near calm winds Saturday night,
potential for strong radiational cooling conditions. NBM
guidance indicates a high probability of temperatures in the low
to mid 30s. So lowered temps from previous forecast and expect
some freezing conditions especially in outlying and sheltered
areas. The ridge shifts to the southeast Sunday night so temps a
little warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Warmer early next week.
- More unsettled weather towards the end of the forecast period.

Ensembles indicate an upper trough over the upper Midwest will
take on a negative tilt as it moves toward the Great Lakes. This
trough will drive a cold front toward the region late Monday
night. The front appears to move through the region Tuesday
afternoon. Moisture is expected to be limited ahead of the
front. The NBM has low pops, but the deterministic GFS and ECMWF
pops are increasing. Kept a dry forecast with ensemble qpf
remaining quite low although a few sprinkles seems possible.
Ensemble members indicate that the more substantial moisture
increase will occur towards the end of the period with stronger
forcing across the forecast area associated with a frontal
boundary and low pressure in the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. Chance of rain for Thanksgiving day. Temperatures
above normal early in the week then near normal for the
Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions for the entire period.

Gusty winds have died down since sunset, with multiple sites
seeing winds less than 5 knots. West winds of 5-8 kts continue
overnight and into tomorrow, with some deviation in the
direction possible given winds will be lighter than they have
been the past couple of days. Aside from that, clear skies and
dry air keep things completely VFR. One-line TAFs were
appropriate for this period!

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation impacts
expected into the first part of next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...