Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
397 FXUS62 KCAE 191809 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 209 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and dry conditions continue to dominate the region with normal or slightly cooler temperatures through Sunday. Dry weather then continues through the coming week. Temperatures are expected to gradually rise through the long term with above normal highs expected through the middle of the week. Then a dry front could push into the Southeast bringing temps back to near normal late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Dry and continued cooler than normal. Dry high pressure at the surface and aloft across the area. There is a weak mid level short wave trough lifting northeast thru the area with some very thin high clouds. These clouds will diminish by early evening. Mainly clear overnight. Precipitable water remains very low, about 40 % of normal for this time of year. Dew points are lower than guidance was indicating for this afternoon, mainly in the mid to upper 30s. Guidance overnight low temperatures have had warm bias last few radiational cooling night. Expect favorable radiational cooling tonight with only around 10 knots in the boundary layer. Local radiation scheme suggests low 40s so lowered the NBM a few degrees. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Dry with near normal daytime temps and chilly overnights. Upper ridging over the Southeast combined with surface high pressure are forecast to remain in place through the short term period. As a result, dry conditions (PWATS generally less than 0.5") with gradually moderating daytime temps are expected. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday and near 80 on Monday. Overnight temps are forecast to gradually rebound as well, but with the dry air in place, lows are expected to remain chilly Sunday and Monday night, mainly in the lower to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Message(s): - Above normal temperatures through mid week ahead of a possible cold front late in the week. Upper ridging remains over the region into midweek ahead of an approaching upper trough. Meanwhile, high pressure continues at the surface, resulting in continued quiet conditions with gradually increasing temperatures through at least Wednesday. Confidence remains very high (~90%) that we`ll see above normal temperatures by midweek across the forecast area. The aforementioned approaching trough is forecast to move across the eastern CONUS late in the week, but there is increased uncertainty in just how far south this trough extends. Uncertainty has also increased with how far south an attendant cold front extends late in the week. Therefore, the spread in forecast temperatures has also increased, leading to a lower confidence forecast for late in the period. Regardless, even if the front does extend far enough south drop temperatures for us, no rain is expected. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the period. Dry high pressure across the area. Just a few thin high clouds across mainly central and north SC this afternoon with clear skies expected overnight. Winds north-northeast 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable around 00z. Fog threat remains low late tonight. North-northeast winds 5 to 10 knots around 15z Sunday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation expected through Wednesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$