779
FXUS62 KCAE 212353
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
653 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A drier and colder airmass will settle across the region into
the weekend. Gusty winds are expected over area lakes tonight
and into early Friday morning. Dry weather continues this
weekend, with slowly rebounding temperatures across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Strong winds over area lakes expected overnight
- Freezing temperatures possible in the northern Midlands

The VAD wind profile from KCAE shows 20 to 30 kt winds at 1 to 2
kft. Model forecast soundings show this elevated mixed layer
persisting through the overnight period. With lake temperatures
still very warm, we would expect these winds to mix down over
area lakes. Over the lake, we could see gusts up to 35 mph.
Elsewhere sustained winds should remain around 10 mph or less.
We extended the Lake Wind Advisory through 9 am to account for
the mixing over the warm waters overnight.

Temperatures tonight will largely depend on how mixed the lower
levels stay overnight. It`s more likely than not that in our
sheltered locations and typically cooler spots we will see
temperatures briefly drop below freezing. This is most likely
across the northern Midlands. While the impacts are not likely
to be widespread or long-lived, we still felt that as one of
our coldest nights so far this season that a Freeze Warning was
supported. The rest of the forecast area should fall into the
middle 30s. Frost is possible, but should be limited with max RH
values of 65 to 75 percent, reflective of our very dry
environment.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Cooler Friday with breezy conditions possible into Friday   night.
- Temperatures rebound slightly on Saturday, but frost remains
possible late Saturday night.

Strong upper low and associated surface low pressure system over the
Northeast are expected to gradually shift eastward through the short
term period. Upper ridging and surface high pressure slowly move in
from the west as well. As a result, there will likely be a fairly
strong pressure gradient on Friday, leading to breezy northwest to
west winds in the afternoon. However, with the low pulling away
somewhat, the gradient and winds are expected to be a bit weaker
than Thursday. The downsloping winds bring another sunny day to the
area, which will aid in good mixing as well, resulting in gusts in
the 20-30 mph range.
The highest gusts are anticipated in the northern portions of the
forecast area. Conditions remain borderline on the need for a Lake
Wind Advisory Friday evening, so we`ll keep monitoring for the need
to issue one, but will wait at least until the current Lake Wind
Advisory expires. With the ridging edging further eastward,
temperatures rebound slightly on Saturday and winds continue to
subside.

Overnight lows are expected to be on the chilly side both Friday and
Saturday nights. There is some uncertainty of just how cold we`ll
get Friday night, but there is potential for a few spots to see hit
the freezing mark early Saturday morning. The main factors that
would prevent locations from hitting the freezing mark are that
ridging is expected to bring in slightly higher heights, thus warmer
air, and winds are not expected to become calm overnight, limiting
the radiational cooling factor. While still chilly, lows Saturday
night are forecast to be slightly warmer than Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Gradually warming but dry pattern into early next week.
- A bit more unsettled weather possible by midweek.

Confidence remains high that dry conditions and a gradual warming
trend continue into the first half of the work week as both
deterministic and ensemble model solutions are in good agreement
that upper ridging and surface high pressure move over the area.
Uncertainty creeps back into the forecast for Thanksgiving and the
end of the week as a trough and surface frontal boundary approach
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR is forecast for the entire period.

Dry air has pushed into the region and will keep cig and vis
restrictions completely at bay, with clear skies forecast for
the entire period. Winds should continue to be breezy
throughout, with gusts expected to pick up again mid-morning
tomorrow. Expect 20-25 knot gusts out of the northwest again
throughout much of tomorrow afternoon before diminishing near
sunset.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation impacts
expected through the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST Friday for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for SCZ016-020>022-
     029-115-116.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST Friday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$