528
FXUS62 KCAE 031853
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
253 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A major warmup continues today with near record temperatures
expected through Sunday. A cold front will move slowly through
the area late Sunday through Monday with widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Much cooler temperatures expected behind the
front next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Unseasonably warm through tonight.

Upper level ridge continues to build over the region this
afternoon. Meanwhile, a surface high remains off to our east and
a nearly stationary front is draped across the Ohio River Valley
southward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The gradient
between the high and front is allowing for some breezy south
winds gusting to 20-25 mph. Expect these winds to diminish after
sunset. Temperatures are currently in the mid 80s and should
rise a few more degrees in the next few hours. Overnight temps
are forecast to remain on the warm side (near 70) once again as
low- level moisture in place is expected to bring low clouds to
the area. Isolated spots of fog can`t be ruled out either due
to the moisture.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Highly anomalous warmth continues through Saturday, with near
  daily record temps.

Friday and Friday night...Anomalously strong mid/upper level
ridge centered offshore will build into the area Friday. Cut-off
low out in the Desert Southwest. Surface Bermuda ridge
extending into the area. Deeper moisture confined to the midwest
into the Ohio Valley along a stalled frontal boundary and low
pressure in the Mid Mississippi Valley. Low- level warm
advection through the day. Precipitable water appears to be
high...near 180% of normal. But moisture appears confined to
around 850mb. Model soundings suggest strong mid level capping.
Air mass moderately unstable. CAMS suggest a few isolated
showers/thunderstorms possible, but given strong capping will
keep pops relatively low through the day. After some morning
clouds again, temperatures will rise quickly in warm advection
pattern. Max temperature forecast a little above the NBM mean
due to cool bias given strength of the 500 mb ridge, heights
well above the 99th percentile in the NAEFS. So, highs near 90
on track. Overnight low temperatures well above normal in the
low to mid 60s.

Saturday and Saturday night...Upper level ridge continues over
the southeast but 500mb heights appear a little lower. Moisture
appears to decrease a bit through the day. Mid level capping
appears strong. Will continue the dry forecast and temperatures
near record highs, near 90 and lows in the low to mid 60s.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

-Showers and thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday as a
 front moves into the area.
-A few strong storms possible.
-Locally heavy rain possible.
- Much cooler temps likely starting Monday and lasting throughout
  next week.

The upper low out west will begin to lift northeast into the
Plains and the upper ridge over the Southeastern US will shift
to the southeast. This will allow increasing moisture into the
area in southwest flow aloft. The surface cold front will be
moving into the Deep South Sunday. The GFS has been faster than
other guidance but is trending slower moving the front toward
the area Sunday. The ECMWF ensemble along it AIFS remain the
slower solutions. Noticed the NBM continues to slow things down.
So Sunday temperatures should be quite warm, near record heat
again but lowered pops a bit. Widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms move in Sunday night as moisture advection
increases and the front moves into the area. Some potential for
locally heavy rain with slow moving front and precipitable water
probability > 1.5 inches near 80 % in the ensembles...260% of
normal for this time of year. Total qpf in the 1 to 2 inch range
on average. WPC has area in marginal flash flood risk. The
front may move slowly through the area Monday into Monday
afternoon, and NBM pops have gone up through the day. Frontal
passage may be delayed until Monday evening. Strong high
pressure building in from the northwest behind the front through
mid week. Much cooler temperatures expected through mid week.
Strong radiational cooling possible Wednesday morning with lows
in the 30s as indicated by NBM. Highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR ceilings this afternoon with MVFR/IFR ceilings possible
late tonight.

The typical scattered cumulus deck is being noted across the region
at the start of the TAF period. Expect this to continue through
about sunset before dissipating. Low level moisture remains high in
the area, so expecting MVFR, to potentially IFR ceilings, are
expected after about 06z. The probability of IFR ceilings is
highest for CAE/CUB/OGB, but guidance is showing about a 30%
chance of that occurring, so have left an IFR group out for the
time being. A gradual improvement is expected to ceiling heights
after daybreak, with a cumulus field anticipated once again.
Southerly winds gusting to the 20-25 kt range this afternoon
lower to 5-8 kts after about 03z. Winds are forecast to shift
more southwesterly late in the TAF period. There is also a low
potential for fog early tomorrow morning, but confidence isn`t
high enough to include at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Precipitation remains unlikely
through Saturday before the next rain chance moves in Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$