531
FXUS62 KCAE 230000
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
700 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Although a cold airmass remains across the region, we should
begin to see a slow warming trend through midweek as dry
conditions continue. A cold front moves through the area
Thursday with scattered showers expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Cool and dry

Mid-level shortwave moving across the region is mainly bringing
some broken cloudiness into the forecast area. This will eventually
push east towards the coast later tonight, bringing scattered
to mostly clear skies after midnight. Overnight temps also a
little warmer as airmass continues to slowly moderate. However
lows will still be near freezing by morning under the clear
skies, light winds, and dry air in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Warming trend continues
- System passing just to the south of the region Sunday night
- Drier air moves in for Monday.

A zonal flow aloft will allow temperatures to warm to above normal
levels for late February early next week. An upper level trough is
forecast to move along the Gulf Coast Sunday Night through Monday.
Some of the models bring moisture far enough north to bring a slight
chance of showers to the Southern Midlands and lower CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Above normal temperatures through mid week
- Frontal passage anticipated on Thursday

Zonal flow aloft gives way to a deep upper level trough over the
Eastern U.S. by next weekend. Temperatures are expected to be above
normal through Thursday. A cold front is anticipated to move through
the region on Thursday with a chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures will cool slightly to near normal for the start of
climatological spring Friday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the 24 hour period.

Mid-level shortwave will bring some broken vfr cloudiness across
the region this evening. As this system moves east, skies will
begin to scatter out after midnight, with mostly clear
conditions then expected for Sunday. Winds overnight will be
mostly light and variable. Model time sections showing just
enough mixing in low-levels to keep winds from going completely
calm for long periods, and this should inhibit most fog
formation tonight. Even so, can not completely rule out brief
shallow river fog at ags late tonight once the clouds move east.
Vfr conditions, along with light southerly winds mainly up to 5
knots expected on Sunday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Shallow moisture returns to the
region Sunday night possibly leading to early morning
restrictions. Rain chances remain low through Wednesday night.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$