316
FXUS62 KCAE 232358
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
758 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will clear out through Saturday evening and overnight
into Sunday with drier weather expected tomorrow as the deepest
moisture moves away from the region. Drier and cooler air
pushes into the region for the long term following the passage
of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Rain is steadily waning across the area as a surface front
  sinks south of the area.

Broad troughing aloft is sinking southeast into the area, with
the primary axis now pushing through eastern SC. As a result we
are seeing any residual rain showers clear out and weaken across
interior SC and GA. The surface front and notable higher dew
points is draped to our southeast so enhanced forcing and
easterly flow is confined to the coastal plain. This pattern
will shift eastward overnight and further dry our area out as
the long wave trough interacts with and further spins up a
coastal low. While we won`t quite feel the effects of this low
development by early Sunday, it will set the stage for notable
northwesterly low level flow and much drier air to push into
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Drier air to enter the region

Sunday and Sunday Night: Much drier air moves into the forecast
area Sunday as a coastal low lifts away from the region and an
upper trough digs into the eastern US. Mean PWAT values from the
HREF are near 1.5 inches with the highest atmospheric moisture
nearest the coast. With drier air over the area flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Expect isolated to scattered
convection mainly focused over the eastern Midlands closer to
the deeper moisture on Sunday afternoon. Some CAMs also indicate
potential for convection to develop along the higher terrain of
the Upstate as PVA moves over the region in the
afternoon/evening. Although all HREF members indicate they will
dissipate before working into central SC. Temperatures will be
warmer than the previous day with highs in the mid 80s while
overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 60s to around 70
degrees.

Monday and Monday Night: A cold front will approach the
forecast area early Monday and work across the forecast area
through the remainder of the short term. With a drier air mass
already over the region, the chance of rain as the front passes
is low with highest chances in the east where weak
destabilization could occur at peak heating before the front
moves through. The cool air will lag behind the front, keeping
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Northwesterly flow leading to
cold advection expected Monday night with lows dipping into the
lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Dry weather and below normal temperatures

Much of the long term will be dry and cool as the forecast area
sits in the wake of a series of cold fronts. Anomalously low
heights and atmospheric moisture remain over the eastern US
through the week. PWAT values from the NAEFS are near the
climatological 10th percentile for much of the long term. This
will prevent any hazardous weather and allow for highs in the upper
in the low 80s and lows generally in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Passing Showers Remain Possible this Evening....

Radar imagery this evening shows scattered showers moving
through the forecast area, especially around CAE/CUB. These
showers have not resulted in significant restrictions at the
terminals but could do so briefly if they pass directly over one
of the airports. Once the showers dissipate, the only possible
restriction comes from patchy fog, especially typical brief
restrictions at AGS where a TEMPO has been added to the TAF.
Otherwise, mid-level cloudiness should give way to SCT cumulus
by midday Sunday. The chance of rain is low and not included in
the TAFs due to low confidence.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A drier air mass will arrive behind a
cold front, likely putting an end to widespread restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$