655
FXUS62 KCAE 121049
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
649 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Above average temperatures and mostly dry through the rest of
the week. Besides a low chance for quick shower-storm in the
CSRA Thursday, the next chance for more widespread rain and
possibly thunderstorms is this weekend when a strong front
pushes through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Warmer today with clear skies and southwest winds.

A dry air mass is in place this morning with clear skies and
satellite PWAT estimates around a quarter of an inch. Similar to
yesterday morning, some patchy river fog is possible. High
pressure continues to ridge over the area today with sunny
skies. Winds increase out of the southwest as the surface high
pressure shifts offshore. Ridging strengthens over the area
today which will lead to higher temperatures than yesterday with
highs topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s. Southwest winds
continuing into tonight will marginally increase moisture which
will lead to moderating lows as well. Low temperatures in the
mid to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Above average temperatures continue.

- Slight chance of showers in the CSRA Thursday.

A mid to upper level transient trough is forecast to move across
the Gulf Coast states into the Southeast on Thursday, which
brings increasing clouds for the day. As a result of the clouds,
temps are expected to be slightly cooler than Wednesday, but
still above average. Precipitation associated with this system
pretty much fizzles out by the time it reaches our forecast,
however. This is mainly due to the lack of moisture available as
PWATs remain generally less than an inch. That said, there
remains a slight chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm
for the CSRA in the afternoon. After the trough passes, ridging
builds back into the area ahead of the next system progressing
through the central parts of the CONUS. Southwest flow begins to
ramp up some, allowing for an uptick in temperatures and gradual
increase in moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Warm Saturday with a strong front expected for late weekend.

- A conditional severe and flooding threat looks is possible
  with this system mainly on Sunday.

A deepening trough and developing strong cold front over the
central CONUS begins to approach the forecast area to begin the
weekend. As a result, south to southwest flow increases,
continuing to increase the moisture across the area. Isentropic
lift ahead of the front looks strong enough to bring a chance
for showers on Saturday, mainly for the western portions of the
forecast area. Model guidance is in decent agreement that the
front moves through the region on Sunday, but we`re still 5 days
out, so uncertainty remains. This system could bring multiple
threats to the area. With the increased moisture, there should
be enough instability for storms to develop. However, the timing
of the front would determine just how much instability we
observe. As of now, both the GEFS and NBM show a medium chance
(30-40%) of at least 500 J/kg of CAPE. With the front and upper
trough approaching, it is reasonable that there will be plenty
of shear available. Therefore, there is a conditional threat
for severe weather on Sunday. In addition to the severe threat,
flow aloft is forecast to be generally parallel to the frontal
boundary at this time, which could lead to training cells with
heavy rain. This would bring a conditional flash flood threat to
the area as well. Due to the strength of this system, gusty
winds outside of any thunderstorm activity are increasing
likely. The NBM is showing a 50% chance of greater than 30 mph
gusts for both Saturday and Sunday, with about a 40% chance of
greater than 40 mph on Sunday. After this system passes,
temperatures are anticipated to drop and dry conditions return.

So overall, there is the potential for an active day on Sunday,
but uncertainty remains and we`ll iron out more details as the
day approaches. It is something to keep in the back of your mind
for now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Predominantly VFR with low chance of early morning AGS fog
Thursday morning.

VFR conditions with light and variable winds in place early this
morning. As the inversion breaks late this morning, winds will
increase out of the southwest between 5 to 10 knots through the
afternoon, becoming light and variable once again tonight. With
dry air in place, expect clear skies for most of the TAF period,
although some high clouds are possible late tonight. Based on
persistence, some variable visibilities are possible at AGS late
tonight into early Thursday morning but confidence is too low to
include in this TAF update.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Next chance of widespread restrictions
will be late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$