549
FXUS62 KCAE 261801
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
201 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few stronger thunderstorms are possible again today and
Friday as an upper low lingers near the forecast area. Typical
summertime weather expected this weekend and into early next
week with near to slightly above normal temperatures and daily
shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Temps back near average for late June this afternoon with some
  storms across the western-northern Midlands.

The broad upper low continues to spin away to our south, quite
easily seen in the water vapor imagery this afternoon. A
persistent band of subsidence and dry aloft is wrapping around
on the north side of this low and will generally cap us out
today for much of the forecast area. As of 2pm, there isn`t
even any flat cu out there, rare for late June. There is some
persistent upslope flow and better moisture convergence in the
higher elevations across the Upstate and mountains and strong
convection will continue into the evening up there. These could
produce strong enough outflows this evening to help trigger
some storms across the western Midlands. But overall, dry air
and synoptic subsidence will limit both coverage and strength of
any storms that develop despite some modest instability of
1000-1500 J/kg of ML CAPE. The Marginal Risk continues but
remains primarily north of I-20 and all hi-res guidance and
mesoanalysis continues to support the limited coverage (if any)
in the Midlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Key Message(s):

- Upper low continues to slowly work northward Friday, though it
will be weakening.

- Forcing from the upper low may allow another chance for strong to
marginally strong storms.

- More typical summer conditions remain expected for the weekend.

The upper low currently positioned over Florida will continue to
drift northward through the early part of the period before finally
dissipating during the weekend. While no significant surge of
moisture is expected, southerly flow Friday will allow PWAT`s to
remain near 1.75-1.85", as well as temperatures in the low to mid
90s with continuing muggy conditions. The lingering forcing from the
upper low looks to drive scattered convection during the afternoon
and into the evening across the region, but the 12z HRRR continues
to favor locations along and north of I-20, with possible convection
forming along the sea breeze later in the afternoon. The risk for a
couple strong to marginally severe storms exists as the environment
continues to be characterized by modest to strong instability,
1000- 1300 J/kg of DCAPE with a strong inverted v profile, and
fairly weak shear. Forecast soundings also depict some dry air
in the mid levels with cloud layer shear values near 25-30 kts
and thus while potential damaging wind gusts would be the
primary threat in any strong cells, some marginally severe hail
cannot be ruled out.

After Friday, more typical summer conditions take over for the
weekend as the upper low begins to fizzle out and the region remains
under the influence of the subtropical ridge, keeping near average
temperatures and muggy conditions. PWAT`s near 1.8" each day and
building of diurnal instability should allow scattered pulse
convection during the afternoon/evening Saturday and Sunday as
convective temps between 92-95F are neared. Forecast soundings
Saturday still depict a decent inverted v profile and moderate to
strong DCAPE values, thus a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out
at this time but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Key Message(s):

- Near average temperatures and typical summer diurnal
  convection expected into the early week.

- A possible cold front nears the region toward the mid-week,
bringing more rain/storm chances, though the severity of any storms
still needs to be ironed out.

The subtropical ridge remains in place to start the week before
perhaps getting a bit suppressed toward the middle of the week.
PWAT`s and temperatures remain near average much of the early
week with diurnal shower/storm chances still possible, though
the overall severe threat appears fairly low with the generally
pulse nature of this. By the midweek however global guidance and
ensembles hint that troughing into the Great Lakes region could
start to suppress the ridge some, and possibly bring a slow
moving cold front near the region with PWAT`s raising toward
125-130% of normal. With the EC Ensemble and GEFS generally
onboard with this solution, PoP`s chances are bit higher toward
the midweek, but details regarding any potential severe weather
will come into better focus in the coming days with more medium
range guidance reaching into this period. In general,
temperatures into the midweek should be near average to slightly
below, depending on when the front actually passes through the
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through Friday morning, with some
morning fog-stratus possible.

Clear skies with only some isolated cu likely this afternoon for
all TAF`s sites. Convection should remain well north and west of
all TAF sites this evening, so no thunder mention moving
forward. Winds will remain somewhat 5-10knots and variable this
afternoon before going calm overnight. Some fog and/or stratus
is possible Friday morning. Confidence in any IFR or LIFR
restrictions is low currently, more likely MVFR restriction
type setup near sunrise for all sites except DNL. Convection
chances increases Friday afternoon, but beyond the end of the
TAF period for now.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The potential for fog exists
each night and morning, especially in locations that receive
heavy rain. Diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms each
afternoon through the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...