870
FXUS62 KCAE 132251
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
651 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon before a
meso low/MCV possibly brings another batch tonight and increased
rain chances Thursday. An upper level ridge over the southeast
states on Friday will shift west of the region over the weekend
and persist into next week. Lower rain chances are expected with
near normal temperatures over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Another batch of showers and isolated storms possible
  tonight.

Main feature of interest this evening is the mid level vort
center over southeastern Alabama, moving in our general
direction. Given moderate instability, this vort max is kicking
off widespread showers and thunderstorms over western Georgia
and eastern Alabama. Given the continued upper support expected
overnight, those showers and isolated thunderstorms should move
in from the southwest, getting to the CSRA by mid evening and
the central Midlands by midnight. The best forcing will be
north of I-20 yet again, so those locations will be the focus
for some of the locally heavier rain, with chances lower in the
southeast. PWs will surge yet again to values well above 2
inches, supporting some spots receiving that amount of rain.
While the ground was able to dry out a bit today, soils are
still quite wet, so it won`t take a ton of rain to cause yet
another round of wet roadways and small creeks and drainage
areas overflowing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms will locally heavy rainfall
possible on Thursday.

- Warmer on Friday with lower rain chances as upper ridging builds
overhead.

A passing short wave will erode the northwest periphery of an upper
level ridge, and it along with an associated meso-low will produce
noctural convection that will be ongoing at the start of the period.
The latest CAMs all support this convection shifting northeast
across the area during the morning and early afternoon hours, before
lifting into the Pee Dee later in the day. Some weak NVA in wake of
this convective complex could result in drier conditions for part of
the afternoon before more diurnally driven convection develops to
the northwest. Instability initially looks weak, but should increase
toward the Pee Dee in the afternoon and cannot rule out a few
stronger storms. High precipitable water values up to 2.25 to 2.5
inches will result in some heavy rainfall, and localized flash
flooding is a possibility. Temperatures will be a bit cooler given
the convection and associated cloud cover.

The region will be located along the northern periphery of an upper
level ridge on Friday. Some weak short wave energy could pass aloft
to the north, but despite continued high precipitable water values,
convection appears to be mainly scattered in coverage and diurnally
driven.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Generally drier conditions, with mainly isolated diurnal
convection through the period.

-Temperatures near normal into next week.

An upper level ridge will retrograde to the west on Saturday, with
much of the guidance showing a front potentially dropping south of
the area. This should usher in some drier air for the weekend and
potentially beyond. Ensembles show the ridge remaining anchored to
the west and blended guidance favors mainly isolated showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Temperatures appear to be near
normal through much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions this evening outside of any brief shower/storm
associated restrictions. Possible batch of showers and storms
tonight and MVFR to IFR ceilings.

Area of low pressure located across southwestern Ga this evening
will continue to track east/northeastward through the night.
This will bring increasing cloud cover, along with greater rain
chances later tonight and into Thursday. Clouds will initially
begin with vfr conditions, then begin to lower through the early
portions of the overnight hours. Can not rule out conditions
dropping to mvfr after 06z as the low approaches, but confidence
remains on the lower side. Have mainly gone with low end
vfr/upper end mvfr ceilings, with the lower conditions favored
in the CSRA towards morning. Isolated showers remain possible
tonight, and with limited coverage early, will handle with
amendments or vcsh for a period overnight. Additional showers
and storms expected to develop near the center and east of the
low Thursday late morning through the afternoon, especially
across the Midlands of SC. Will include Prob30 to handle that
coverage potential for now. Winds southwesterly for much of the
period, then turning more westerly Thursday afternoon behind the
surface low.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...More typical summertime conditions
return with afternoon convection and possible periods of stratus
in the morning each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$