361
FXUS62 KCAE 211753
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1253 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Skies are clear as bitterly cold air filters into the region.
This airmass will settle over the area today through the weekend
with below normal temperatures. A slow warming trend is
expected Saturday into early next week as dry conditions
continue.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Well below normal high temperatures this afternoon.

A cold and very dry airmass is moving into the region behind
yesterday`s cold front. The Arctic high pressure system will
continue to move east through the Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys today with cold northerly winds over the Southeast.
Cold advection will keep temperatures in the 40s this afternoon.
Highs will mainly be in the mid 40s, about 15 to 20 degrees
below normal. Thin high clouds begin to enter the Southeast this
evening and overnight hindering net radiational cooling
conditions. Still, calm winds and a cold airmass will allow lows
to drop into the low to mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Gradual moderation of temperatures into early next week.

A late winter 1040mb Arctic high pressure system moves offshore this
weekend with temperatures gradually warming to near normal for late
February by Monday. The airmass is extremely dry, therefore there
are no precipitation concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Warming trend continues through mid week
- Potential system next Thursday and Friday

A zonal flow aloft and low level southwesterly flow will allow
temperatures to continue to moderate to above normal levels for
late February by mid week.

There is a moderate probability of much below H5 heights returning
to the Eastern U.S. toward the end of next week. Deterministic
medium range models depict a deep upper level trough moving into the
region sometime between next Thursday or Friday. Recent model trends
have been decreasing the probability of precipitation with this
system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the 24 hour period.

Clear skies and light N/NE winds through the afternoon becoming
calm overnight and then picking up out of the SE tomorrow.
Although the aforementioned winds directions are favored there
may be large portions of the TAF period where winds are light
and variable, especially at CUB. High clouds arrive late this
afternoon and overnight but no aviation impacts are expected.
Dry air at the surface will negate any fog concerns.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Sunday into early next week,
shallow moisture returns to the region. There may be periods of
restrictions in the extended but confidence is low.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...