911
FXUS62 KCAE 230527
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1227 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Although a cold airmass remains across the region, we should
begin to see a slow warming trend through midweek as dry
conditions continue. A cold front moves through the area
Thursday with scattered showers expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Cool and dry

Mid-level shortwave moving across the region is mainly bringing
some broken cloudiness into the forecast area. The back edge of
the cloudiness is moving through nrn/cntrl GA. Expect the
clouds to push east of the area towards the coast by later
tonight. Eventually scattered to mostly clear skies will develop
over the Midlands and CSRA from west to east after midnight.
Overnight temperatures have been slow to fall with the clouds
and light winds this evening, but expect them to fall after
midnight. Temperatures will still be below normal, but a little
warmer as the airmass continues to slowly moderate. Morning lows
will still be near freezing by morning under the clear skies,
light winds, and dry air in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Warming trend continues
- System passing just to the south of the region Sunday night
- Drier air moves in for Monday.

A zonal flow aloft will allow temperatures to warm to above normal
levels for late February early next week. An upper level trough is
forecast to move along the Gulf Coast Sunday Night through Monday.
Some of the models bring moisture far enough north to bring a slight
chance of showers to the Southern Midlands and lower CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Above normal temperatures through mid week
- Frontal passage anticipated on Thursday

Zonal flow aloft gives way to a deep upper level trough over the
Eastern U.S. by next weekend. Temperatures are expected to be above
normal through Thursday. A cold front is anticipated to move through
the region on Thursday with a chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures will cool slightly to near normal for the start of
climatological spring Friday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the 24 hour period.

Mid level trough is moving off the coast and expect the mid
level clouds to decrease across the region through the early
morning. Surface high pressure will be over the area through the
day and the air mass remains relatively dry. Another mid level trough
will be approaching from the Gulf coast region later this
afternoon and tonight, and expect an increase in mid and high
level clouds from GA. Winds will be near calm through the early
morning then mainly west around 5 knots through the day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Shallow moisture returns to the
region Monday and there may be ceiling restrictions
late but threat appears low. Scattered showers possible
Thursday along with restrictions as a cold front moves through
the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$