993
FXUS62 KCAE 200755
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
355 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridging will be in control of our weather through
Monday, leading to continued dry weather with above normal
temperatures. The next chance of rain comes on Tuesday from a
cold front which could stall out across the region for the mid
to late week period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry with continued above normal temperatures.

Upper ridging and surface high pressure anchored offshore will keep
conditions dry with above normal temperatures today. High level
cloud cover from an upstream system will continue much of the day
today, though some thinning is likely this afternoon into this
evening. The cloud cover and a weak low level jet are working to
keep temperatures this morning on the mild side, with lows generally
only in the low 60s. With dewpoints holding steady right around 60
degrees, higher relative humidity levels this morning may lead to
some patchy river fog or stratus toward daybreak. Continued high
heights over the region will bring high temperatures into the mid
and upper 80s across the area again this afternoon. This may lead to
another round of fair weather cumulus, but otherwise benign weather
will persist. Overnight lows are generally expected to be right
around 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Upper ridging and high pressure to the east keeps the region
  dry on Monday with above normal temperatures.

- A cold front slowly approaches from the north and west on
  Tuesday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms
  Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.

Upper ridging at the start of the period finally breaks down
Monday night, giving way to broad southwesterly flow. Despite
the ridge breaking down, heights are expected to remain above
normal, favoring a continuation of the atypically warm
temperatures despite partly to mostly cloudy skies. Forecast
highs on both days should be in the mid to upper 80s, around 10
degrees above normal. A cold front sluggishly moves east on
Tuesday could bring shower and thunderstorms to the FA late
Tuesday into Tuesday night, especially across the northern and
western Midlands. However, the best chance of rain should hold
off until the middle of the week when the boundary is expected
to stall somewhere across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A stalled frontal boundary could trigger showers and
  thunderstorms each day through at least Friday.

- Temperatures remain above seasonal values despite the
  anticipated clouds and rain.

The aforementioned cold front is expected to stall somewhere
across the region during the middle of the week, serving as the
focal point for daily showers and thunderstorms. A few passing
shortwaves will move through during the mid to late week period,
aiding in convective development, though the overall pattern
does not appear favorable for widespread strong to severe
thunderstorms at this time. Given that guidance has struggled
with the timing of the front, consistently delaying its arrival,
forecaster confidence in precipitation chances is lower than
usual. With this in mind, PoPs were capped in the Chance
category through the extended. As heights remain above normal,
temperatures should remain above seasonal values through the
long term. Some improvement in the unsettled weather is possible
towards next weekend, though continued warm and moist
conditions could still trigger isolated afternoon and evening
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Other than a little
early morning ground fog at the usually susceptible terminals,
predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

SCT-BKN high clouds expected through the first part of the day with
some stratus developing for a short period around daybreak. Surface
winds should remain out of the southwest to southeast at around 5
kts this morning, then pick up to around 10 kts as daytime heating
kicks in. Given that we had some ground fog at AGS and OGB
yesterday, it seems possible once again this morning, mainly between
08Z-12Z, which could temporarily lead to MVFR, or even IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. Any restrictions should clear up quickly, with VFR
expected of the remainder of the day. Some thinning of high clouds
will then occur this evening as winds diminish to less than 5 kts
for the overnight period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A front approaches the region toward
midweek supporting potential restrictions and possible rainfall.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$