675
FXUS62 KCAE 062339
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
739 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers/storms possible this evening, mainly in areas
north of Columbia. Severe weather potential increases somewhat
starting tomorrow with another round possible Sunday as an
active weather pattern develops. Conditions are favorable for
several rounds of thunderstorms to push through the Southeast
into early next week. This active weather pattern will likely
persist through much of the long term with a high chance to
likely PoPs most days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated showers/storms possible this evening and early
  tonight.

Convective complex extends from eastern Tennessee into central
Alabama early this evening, forced by shortwave energy that is
moving steadily eastward toward the area. However, the
atmosphere over us is less unstable than further west, and
convective inhibition will develop after sunset when we lose
the daytime heating. Given the strength of the shortwave, some
of the activity to our west may carry into northern South
Carolina later this evening, but the activity is expected to
diminish in coverage and intensity, so most places along and
south of I-20 should remain dry overnight.

Aside from the convection, cloud coverage will increase with
time overnight as the debris cloudiness from the convective
complex will hold together and move into the area. The clouds,
combined with a bit of wind, should put a floor on the
temperatures overnight of 70 or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Severe weather possible on Saturday and Sunday
- Damaging wind gusts along a line of storms is the main threat

A series of shortwave troughs will parade through the Southeast in
the short term contributing to an active weather pattern and severe
weather potential each day. A MCS is expected to push through
the region each afternoon. The timing and track of these
shortwaves and MCSs will determine our potential for severe
weather over the next few days.

Saturday: The warm, moist air mass preceding the MCS on
Saturday will largely favor strengthening as the system
propagates to east/Southeast through the afternoon. PWAT values
from 1.5 inches north to 1.8 inches the CSRA and steep lapse
rates will allow new convection to develop down shear of the
cold pool into the evening hours. Mean mlCAPE values from the
SREF and sbCAPE values from the HREF exceed 2000 J/kg during the
afternoon in the CSRA where moisture is higher. A straight
hodograph and 0-3 km shear values are sufficient to support
organized linear convection but deep layer and 0-1 km
shear/helicity do not favor supercells or tornadoes. CAMs seem
to be trending on slipping the convection further south into the
higher theta-e air mass where it may possibly impact the CSRA
or stay south of the FA entirely. That said there remains a good
deal of uncertainty in the location of the convective system
across the CAMs so we cannot a rule out the threat for our SC
zones either. The main threat will be damaging wind swaths with
a few stronger cells potentially producing hail as well.

Sunday: An upper level trough will dig into the central US and
position us under deep SW flow as a pronounced shortwave moves
across the FA in the afternoon. Atmospheric moisture will be
significantly higher for Sunday morning with PWAT values from
1.8 to 2 inches. This may allow for widespread cloud cover
Sunday morning and potentially a few showers ahead of the
convective system which will form to our west as the shortwave
moves into the southern Appalachians. The clouds ahead of the
potential system should ultimately result in a more stable
airmass than the previous day helping keep highs in the 80s. The
limited diurnal heating and lack of dry air may contribute to a
less potent MCS on Sunday however there remains some potential
for damaging winds if thunderstorms are able to develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Severe thunderstorms possible again on Monday
- Active weather pattern continues in the long term

Upper level troughing will amplify over the eastern US early
next week. This will position the Southeast squarely under SW
flow with strong moisture flux into the region. Shortwave
activity continues to flow over the Deep South and into the Mid-
Atlantic States supporting a continued threat of thunderstorms
and potentially severe weather for Monday. A frontal system
associated with the upper low could move near or into the
forecast area Tuesday and stall. With atmospheric moisture near
or above normal through mid- week and potentially a front over
the area, we can expect a high chance or likely PoPs for most
days in the extended. The upper low may lift out of the area for
the second portion of the week which would usher in drier air,
although this is uncertain as indicated by about as many GEFS
members showing PWAT values above normal as there are below
normal. Thus the chance for showers and thunderstorms remains in
the forecast through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period at this time.

The afternoon cumulus field will continue to diminish into the
evening and overnight hours, while high-level debris clouds from
convection to our west and northwest will continue to stream
over the region. While a stray shower or storm this evening
remains possible, confidence is too low to add mention at the
terminals at this time. More likely, any residual showers or
storms will remain north of the terminals. Winds from the SW
will continue to diminish less than 8 kts tonight, but are
expected to remain somewhat elevated overnight, helping to
dramatically reduce any fog threat despite plentiful surface
moisture. Another cumulus field is likely to develop on
Saturday, generally 4-8kft MSL along with increasing 8-14 kt
WLY winds with gusts of 20-25 kts possible. There will be the
potential for ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA Saturday afternoon, but
confidence on timing is too limited to include in a PROB30.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture remains in place over the
area through the middle of next week, leading to potential
early morning restrictions and diurnal convection each day.
Thunderstorms over the weekend may also bring restrictions along
with gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$