389
FXUS62 KCAE 121142
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
642 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Wedge conditions likely continue across the area today. This
will result in continuing cool temperatures and periods of rain
and drizzle, especially across the northwest. A warm front is
expected to lift slowly north tonight with more showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms into Thursday morning as a cold
front nears the area. Friday is cooler and dry before the next
storm system moves in this weekend, with rain and gusty winds on
Sunday. Cool and dry weather returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Cold conditions continue today with scattered to widespread
  rain and drizzle.

- Warm front begins to lift north late this afternoon.

Wedge conditions likely persist today with surface high
pressure in the upper East Coast slowly sliding NE into Canada.
Guidance has generally trended toward the high pressure center
sliding far enough north to start lessening our wedge conditions
but with high low to mid level moisture in place, strong
southwesterly flow between 700mb and 850mb, and continuing
rain/drizzle, I expect the wedge to remain in place through most
of the day, limiting temperatures to stay in the low to mid 40s
for most. A warm front is expected to start lifting north
through the afternoon and evening so the CSRA and far southern
Midlands could reach into the 50s with spots in southern Burke
County and into Barnwell and Bamberg Counties reaching near 60.
PWATs through the day reach 1.2-1.4 inches with strong/deep
isentropic lift continuing most of the day with a 45-50 kt low
level jet in place, bringing scattered to widespread rain
through much of the morning especially where periods of moderate
rain will be possible mainly into the Piedmont and upstate of
GA. The strongest isentropic lift is expected to lift NW through
the afternoon and evening, but chances of scattered light rain
showers and drizzle continue through much of the day. Generally
an additional 0.25-0.50 inches of rainfall is expected through
the day (primarily in the morning hours). The warm front then
begins to lift north through the afternoon and into Thursday,
leading to temperatures that steadily increase into Thursday
morning. A cold front begins to approach the region overnight
and into Thursday with 850mb warm advection, bringing increased
rain shower chances along with a slight chance of isolated
thunderstorms toward the CSRA and southern/eastern Midlands
Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cold front moves through Thursday with more showers and
  isolated thunderstorms.

- Dry/cool air mass and high pressure build in Friday, bringing
  dry conditions before rain chances increase again overnight
  and into Saturday.

Thursday and Thursday night... A cold front approaches from the
west in the morning Thursday, moving through the region around
midday. Ahead of this front we see a strong 60-70 kt low level
jet, PWATs that surge to 1.50 to 1.75 inches, and decent warm
advection. This will bring scattered to widespread rain
showers. Bulk shear looks to be on the order of 60-75 kts,
bringing fairly high SRH, but the main limiting factor will be
fairly limited instability and weak lapse rates. This will bring
isolated thunderstorm chances mainly in the CSRA and
southern/eastern Midlands after 6-9AM, through there is some
uncertainty in the timing of the front making it into the area
and thus the extent in which instability can build ahead of it.
A slower solution could allow instability to build slightly more
and possibly extend further north and east. Overall, the severe
threat continues to seem fairly limited due to the general weak
instability but this will be worth monitoring as we get closer
with the SPCs marginal risk just south of the CSRA. Besides
this, moderate to at times heavy rain is likely with the fronts
passing for much of the area with the plentiful moisture in
place, forcing from the front, and a strong low level jet,
leading to QPF amounts toward 0.25-0.50 inches. With this adding
to the rainfall we will already have seen over the past 24-36
hours, some minor flooding could be possible. Rain shower
chances then quickly decrease from NW to SE across the area
behind the front with most being dry by the evening. For
temperatures, they look to moderate some with most in the area
reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. Very dry air then filters in
behind the front during the evening and overnight as strong
surface high pressure from Canada slides SE and begins to build
in. Strong cold advection will take place overnight, leading to
overnight temps in the 30s across the region.

Friday and Friday night...A break from the active pattern is
expected Friday as a ridge builds in from the west and surface
high pressure moves over the region with PWATs less than 0.20
inches. This will bring mostly clear skies but some continuing
cold advection should keep afternoon highs just below normal
with highs into the 50s expected across the region. By late
Friday night and into Saturday a shortwave begins to near and
moisture once again starts to increase, bringing more rain
shower chances into the start of the weekend. With cloud cover
likely building in late Friday into Saturday morning, expect
lows to generally be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- The next storm system moves in for the weekend with the
  passage of a warm front on Saturday and a cold front Sunday.

- A cold and dry air mass moves in for early next week.

The extended opens with high pressure to our northeast,
potentially leading to weak in-situ wedging, especially across
the northern and western forecast area. The wedge should erode
during the day as the high moves offshore and a warm front lifts
northward into the region. With the increasing moisture, there
could be showers around, especially north and west of I-20.
Temperatures will likely vary greatly across the region but will
depend on if the wedge develops and how quickly it erodes. With
the forecast area in the warm sector of an approaching cold
front, expect temperatures to fall little at night and likely
rise towards daybreak.

High confidence continues regarding the passage of a strong
cold front on Sunday. A period of rain and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two will impact the region Sunday morning and
early afternoon, followed by quick improvement towards evening.
While the level of instability is expected to be low, limiting
the thunderstorm threat, this will be a highly dynamic system
bringing gusty winds to the forecast area for much of the
daytime hours. Strong high pressure builds in behind the front
bringing several days of cool and dry conditions early next
week. Widespread subfreezing temperatures are possible Monday
night, which could damage any outdoor plants that started
blooming for the season.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Persistent cold air damming event will continue to support
IFR/LIFR restrictions through the forecast period.

Abundant low level moisture in place with strong wedge
conditions in place should continue through the day today with
little change in the pattern to disrupt things. A band of rain
and showers extends from the Gulf Coast states through the
Upstate into the Tidewater region with the terminals on the
southeast fringe of the more steady rain. However, the low cigs
in IFR/LIFR will persist with areas of drizzle and reduced vsbys
in the MVFR/IFR range throughout the period with little
improvement expected. There could be some improvement in vsbys
in the afternoon but drizzle and some possible light showers
will likely keep vsbys in the MVFR range before falling back to
IFR after sunset. Winds will remain out of the northeast around
5 to 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A return to VFR conditions is
expected behind a passing front on Thursday, however, there
will be multiple fronts which work into the region in the
extended continuing to support rain chances and potential
restrictions through the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$