163
FXUS62 KCAE 061025
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
625 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another hot and humid day is expected today ahead of an approaching
cold front. This boundary moves through the area this weekend,
bringing the risk of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air
follows for early next week, followed by a warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Hot and humid today.

- Scattered showers and storms in the northwestern portion of
  the area late this afternoon into evening.

Another relatively hot and humid day expected with upper level
ridging hanging on across much of the forecast area and warm
advection persisting in the low levels ahead of a cold front that
will begin to approach the forecast area. Highs expected to be
similar to yesterday, in the low to mid 90s, with consensus among
model guidance of the cold front remaining to the west of the area
through today. The ridge is expected to break down in the
northwestern-most portion of the forecast area and while there
is high confidence that the actual front will not move in until
late tonight/early Sunday morning, a shortwave moving through
the Upstate/Piedmont will lead to increasing potential for
precipitation north of I-20 late this afternoon into this
evening as HREF mean indicates increasing deep layer moisture
with PWATs approaching 2 inches. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible with blended guidance indicating
potential for moderate destabilization with 40-60% of sbCAPE
greater than 1500 J/kg. Forecast soundings are consistent
showing some drier air aloft so if a storm can strengthen
significantly, it is not out of the question that an isolated
storm produces a strong wind gust. While low level lapse rates
are strong, mid-level lapse rates are stronger in the Upstate
compared to our area, limiting severe potential. While storms
will weaken into tonight with a loss of instability, potential
remains for isolated showers as the front itself begins to work
into the area. Lows tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s as the
area remains mixed with the front working through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- A cold front moves through the area, resulting in a large
temperature gradient across the FA.

- A few afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
possible, especially south and east of I-20.

Sunday and Sunday Night: Broad upper trough will remain across the
eastern half of the CONUS while an embedded shortwave moves from the
Great Lakes region into New England. At the surface, the cold front
will be moving through the FA as high pressure moves eastward into
the Ohio Valley. The boundary should have cleared much of the CWA by
the start of the short term, with winds shifting from northwest to
northeast through the day. Guidance suggests that it will take time
for a cooler and drier air mass to filter into the region. As a
result, there could be afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm
development, especially along and south/east of I-20, though this
will be dependent of how quickly the front clears the region.
Daytime temperatures could have a large range due to the passage of
the cold front, with forecast highs ranging from the upper 70s in
the northwest to lower 90s in the southeast. Rain chances should
diminish quickly in the evening as PWATs decrease across the region.
Temperatures by daybreak Monday are forecast to be in the lower to
mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Cooler and drier weather expected next week behind the front
before warming during the mid to late week period.

The pattern during the extended remains largely unchanged from the
last forecast package, with weak upper troughing in place for much
of the period. At the surface, high pressure will be in place to our
north. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure and inverted trough
will linger off the coast and could create a tight pressure gradient
over the FA resulting in breezy conditions. The low could pull
moisture inland towards the eastern Midlands with a daily chance of
showers, especially along and east of I-95. Tuesday and Wednesday
appear to be the days with the highest rain chances though much of
the Midlands and CSRA should be dry through long term. Below normal
temperatures are expected early to mid week, with Tuesday looking
like the coolest day, followed by a gradual late week warming
trend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Patchy morning fog possible at OGB/AGS over the next couple
hours but otherwise VFR.

Some lingering fog possible at AGS or OGB but improvements to
VFR are likely. VFR conditions expected at all other terminals
with cumulus clouds developing late this morning into the
afternoon and southwest winds between 5 to 10 knots. While
scattered showers and storms are possible northwest of the
terminals, coverage will be limited at the terminals. As a
result, have left the mention of any convection out of the TAF
with this issuance, with confidence too low for even a prob30, although
will continue to monitor guidance trends. A front will shift
into the area tonight which may lead to some developing ceiling
restrictions but the most likely timing for any restrictions
will be around 12z. As a result, have just included a scattered
low cloud group at all the terminals for now.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Front will be in the vicinity on Sunday
adding chances for possible restrictions. A cooler and drier air
mass should settle over the region early next week behind the
front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$