Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
164 FXUS62 KCAE 030609 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 209 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled cold front keeps cooler than normal conditions in the area through the rest of weekend with chances for rain again Sunday. Chances for typical afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continue each day, particularly across the Southern Midlands and CSRA, through the forecast period as the boundary lingers nearby and temps run a bit below average. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Cooler Conditions Continue with Rain chances Favoring the CSRA. Surface observations early this morning indicate that the front is just south of the forecast area. Drier air has filtered into the northern area over the last several hours and is expected to continue through this morning with HREF mean PWATs around 1.5 inches in the north to 2 inches in the southern area. Expect the entire area to remain on the stable, cool side of the front today which will lead to conditions similar to yesterday with highs well below average and widespread clouds, although a bit more sun will be likely, especially in the northern area where the drier air has pushed in. Dew points also expected to be much lower today, leading to more comfortable conditions. Highest chances for light rain will be closest to the front where moisture will be highest. While rain is likely at times near the southwest portion of the forecast area, HREF probabilities are low in total rainfall greater than a tenth of an inch (generally 20-40%). This will lead to cooler highs in the Central Savannah River Area, where blended guidance indicates that highs will struggle to reach 80F where elsewhere, highs will still be well below average, into the mid-80s. Rain chances expected to decrease into tonight with lows dropping into the mid to upper 60s once again. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Below average temps and scattered showers expected to start the week. The "wedge front" that pushed south on Sunday and brought notable dry advection and lower surface dew points across the area will lift north on Monday. This will quickly return PWAT`s to near or above average throughout Monday as we come around the influence of mid- upper level troughing to the west, with southwesterly flow aloft and weak isentropic lift overspreading the area. This will yield persistent cloud cover and below average temps with relatively high PoPs expected Monday, especially across the CSRA. The story is effectively the exact same for Tuesday as the synoptic scale pattern progresses very slowly, but temps should warm into the mid-upper 80`s. While PoP`s are relatively both Monday and Tuesday, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty across guidance in total QPF; GEFS again remains somewhat dry with generally less than 1.0" total both days but ECE continues to show a widespread 1-2.5". This uncertainty generally stems from the relatively the weak forcing driving these showers each day, in conjunction with low, but non-zero CAPE each day. So this is a fairly sensitive setup with a boom or bust potential that guidance tends to struggle with. Depend on how things play out this Sunday and Monday, a flood threat could develop across the CSRA but confidence is trending down. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key message(s): - Warming slowly throughout mid-late week with additional scattered showers and storms each day. Broad troughing will slide east but become generally more diffuse throughout the long term period. Temps will steadily warm and moderate closer to average by late week, but with above average PWAT`s filling in, rain chances will continue to remain high throughout the period. NAEFS and ECE are coming into slightly better agreement for mid-late week with elevated rain chances as surface ridging remains south of the Appalachians, with weak isentropic lift continuing each day. Total rainfall has trended down across the LREF across central and northern SC, with higher potential continuing in the CSRA. Much like the short term period, these "weakly" forced rain events tend to have lower predictability across guidance with high temporal and spatial rainfall gradients. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR Ceilings for the Augusta Terminals, VFR elsewhere. The front remains south of the terminals early this morning with low level moisture highest at the Augusta terminals which is leading to MVFR ceilings persisting there while VFR ceilings in place at CAE/CUB/OGB. Improvement expected at AGS/DNL shortly after sunrise, although chances for rain may lead to brief restrictions continuing into the afternoon at times. Winds remain out of the northeast between 5 to 10 knots, before becoming light tonight. Guidance is consistent in VFR conditions at all terminals tonight, at least through 6z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Cool, moist air will likely lead to periods of widespread restrictions and rain into the middle of next week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$