614
FXUS62 KCAE 140538
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1238 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps dry conditions in place through the weekend
with gradual warming trend continuing. The next chance of rain
holds off until next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Dry high pressure in place with near to above normal
  temperatures

An upper trough will move off the New England coast today while
upper level ridging over the middle of the country shifts
eastward, keeping the persistent northwesterly 500mb flow over
the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure currently
centered over the TN Valley will shift eastward over the
Carolinas. This will result in generally light and variable
winds across the area today though a southwesterly direction may
be favored by late afternoon. Generally sunny skies expected
with a few passing high clouds. The combination of northwesterly
downsloping mid level flow and sunshine and a well mixed dry
air mass should result in another warm day with highs ranging
from the upper 60s north to lower 70s in the CSRA. Mostly clear
skies and light winds should allow for strong radiational
cooling with overnight lows expected to be in the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- A warm and dry pattern continues this weekend

- Well above normal and windy conditions are expected ahead of a
  dry cold front on Sunday.

While the pattern over the CONUS and North America looks
amplified through this weekend and early next week, its impact
on our sensible weather won`t be significant. The weather this
weekend generally looks quite nice, actually! On Saturday we`ll
see high pressure quickly shift to the southeast over Florida
and the Bahamas in advance of an approaching low pressure
system over southeastern Canada. This low is forecast to develop
ahead of digging trough across the Great Lakes, with the bulk of
the forcing for ascent staying well to our north as the low and
attendant surface cold front approach our area. Temps on
Saturday are forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s again. On
SUnday, the front itself will approach from the northwest, with
a real chance for us to make a run at the lower 80s. The airmass
will remain very dry & southwesterly flow will favor robust warm
advection in the low-levels. This combination should lead to
very warm temps, especially with surface flow on Sunday taking
on an increasingly downslope component. Sunday does look quite
windy, with a tight pressure gradient yielding wind gusts at
least 30+ mph. Lows on Saturday night look quite warm - in the
upper 50s. Sunday night they should fall back into the mid to
upper 40s as a slightly cooler airmass pushes in behind the
front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Dry conditions expected throughout the long term period.

- Temperatures will likely remain above normal through the
  period.

Guidance is in pretty good agreement on the pattern evolution
as we head into next week. However, as we get into the middle/
end of next week, uncertainty increases. Troughing has been very
common over the eastern CONUS in recent weeks due to a strong
blocking pattern over Greenland. Guidance suggests that this
will break down sometime next week, allowing some movement in
the pattern. This does favor a general warming trend (despite
our above normal temps already) as we get into next week.
Ridging is forecast to build in by Tues/Wed, but guidance
differs a bit on the exact way this occurs. Additionally, the
ECMWF/GFS and their ensembles are quite a bit different as to
what the upper level pattern looks like over the western US,
adding uncertainty to what will happen at the end of this
period. So while the general picture is that of a warmer and
drier than normal timeframe as we head into next week, its
difficult to predict what will happen with sensible weather,
especially as we push towards this time next week. Highs are
forecast to generally be in the 70s, with lows in the 40s or
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

High pressure centered over the TN Valley will build east today
and continue to provide VFR conditions with only some passing
high clouds this morning. Atmosphere too dry for fog concerns.
Near calm winds will remain light today picking up to around 3
to 5 knots with variable direction although a more southerly
direction may occur this afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue into
the weekend with dry air in place.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$