925
FXUS62 KCAE 021014
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
614 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures warming to near normal through Thursday ahead of a
cold front. Front moves through Thursday, expected to be mostly
dry. Above average Friday and Saturday before another front
moves into the area late this weekend leading to chances for
rain into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Cool, dry weather continues

Persistent upper troughing remains in place over the eastern US
today. At the surface, dry northeast flow will continue to
provide dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures. Highs
will again be in the low to mid 80s with lows tonight in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Skies will be mostly clear with just thin
cirrus and afternoon cumulus.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Temperatures warming to near normal as dry weather expected to
  continue.

Upper level ridging over the Atlantic will begin to strengthen
while an upper level low will dig into the Great Lakes. That
will leave our area with gradually rising 500mb heights for the
second half of this week. Blended guidance favors temperatures
rising to near average with highs Wednesday mostly in the
mid-80s. Moisture still expected to be limited with HREF mean
PWATs below 1.2 inches and rising heights leading to a shortwave
passing to the north of the forecast area. Lows will also
moderate with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.

Thursday, a surface cold front will move into the Ohio Valley
with low level warm advection strengthening with highs expected
in the mid to upper 80s with a noticeable uptick in humidity.
Ensemble means have continued to trend drier with this front
with the strongest forcing remaining north of the area. As a
result, most of the area is expected to remain dry with near
average temperatures. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Temperatures rising to above normal by the end of the week
  into the week.

- Slight chance to low chance of showers Sunday and Monday.

Consensus among blended guidance is that the front will not push
through the forecast area. Limited spread in blended highs through
Saturday shows a high confidence that highs will continue to rise to
above average with highs into the mid 90s by Saturday ahead of
another cold front. Precipitation chances remain low until late in
the period when PWATs increase with GEFS probabilities of PWATs
greater than 1.5 inches around 60 to 70 percent by Sunday an Monday.
With forcing not especially impressive, blended guidance has slight
chance to low chance pops Sunday and Monday with isolated to widely
scattered showers possible. While some limited instability is
possible with around 50% of GEFS members showing greater than or
equal to 500 J/kg Sunday and Monday, thunderstorms chances will be
low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24 hour TAF period

Northeast flow will continue to support dry weather through the
24 hour TAF period. NE winds around 7 to 10 knots will pick up
around 15z but will not be as strong as the previous day. No
restrictions are expected with just a few afternoon cumulus and
cirrus overhead. Dry air will preclude fog formation tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible on Thursday
as moisture increases ahead of a front. A few showers are also
possible Thursday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$