849
FXUS62 KCAE 310857
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
357 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the Southeast bringing
gusty winds and widespread showers through Friday night. Above
normal temperatures expected for this weekend with well above
normal temperatures and dry weather likely for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Increasing winds today with gusts above 30 mph possible.Lake
  Wind Advisory is in effect from 10am today to 1am tonight.

- A line of showers will move into the area this evening into
  tonight associated with a cold front.

Upper low currently located in the southern Plains with a cold front
along the Mississippi Valley and prefrontal convection associated
with strong low level convergence out ahead of the front moving
through the Deep South. As the upper low slowly moves eastward this
morning, model consensus is that it will be absorbed into the
upper flow which will lead to increasing eastward speed of both
the upper level system and the associated front and line of
prefrontal convection expected to push into the area this
evening. Ahead of any convection, however, strong 850mb winds
expected to shift over the area with HREF mean indicating 850mb
winds around 50 knots out of the southwest by late morning. With
upper ridging extending over the area downstream of the
amplified upper low and strong warm advection at the surface
along with HiRes models indicating that there will be some
clearing of clouds, especially in the southeastern portion of
the forecast area, went a little bit on the higher side of the
blended guidance distribution for high temperatures today with
highs in the mid to upper 70s, a few degrees below a daily
record (82 at AGS and 84 at CAE).

As the strong 850mb jet shifts over the area and the moderately
strong surface inversion currently in place breaks, winds will
increase out of the southwest through the afternoon with forecast
soundings indicating sufficient enough mixing to lead to gusts above
30 mph across the forecast area. A Lake Wind Advisory will be in
place from 10am to 1am Saturday. The moisture increase will also be
substantial across the area with PWATs, which are currently sitting
around 0.7 to 0.8 inches increasing rapidly with the NAEFS mean
indicating the integrated moisture transport ahead of the cold front
will be near the climatological max. Timing remains fairly
consistent among HiRes models in prefrontal showers moving in this
evening. Instability appears limited with forecast soundings
indicating a warm nose above the surface so while there could be
some limited elevated instability, likely not enough to support
thunderstorms. With the rapid moisture increase and strong low level
convergence as well as upper level forcing, the limiting factor for
significant rainfall will be the fact that the line is moving
relatively quickly through the area. HREF shows relatively high
probabilities of total rainfall over a half inch but very low
probabilities of over an inch so generally expect a half inch to an
inch with a bit higher amounts in the northwest where the upper
level forcing and convergence will likely be stronger. The cold
front will shift through the area overnight which will lead to cold
advection developing, although lows will be in the mid to upper
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry with above normal temperatures

An upper level trough axis will quickly shift offshore early
Saturday, setting up a nearly zonal flow aloft for the remainder of
the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will build in from the
Great Lakes region Saturday, before shifting over New England by
Sunday. The dry airmass and subsidence over the region will result
in rain-free conditions. Temperatures will be above normal over the
weekend, although Sunday appears to be slightly cooler than
Saturday, potentially due to an onshore component in the low-level
flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Well above normal temperatures
- Slight increase in moisture toward the end of the period

Ensembles are in good agreement through early next week showing a
zonal flow with above normal heights over the region, along with low
overall moisture. This will result in continued rain-free conditions
with well above normal temperatures. There is greater spread in the
ensemble guidance Wednesday and beyond with the strength of the
upper ridge, but temperatures even at the 25th percentile are still
well above normal. There is however general agreement in an increase
in precipitable water values that could perhaps support low rain
chances by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR Conditions before a line of showers Friday evening may lead
to restrictions. LLWS early this morning with gusty winds by
late morning.

High clouds passing over the terminals with a cold front well to
the west of the area. As the front approaches, expect
strengthening winds just above the surface and while surface
winds are generally expected to remain light, winds increase to
around 40 knots at 2kft leading to LLWS at all terminals in the
next several hours. By mid to late morning, when the inversion
breaks and the low level jet mixes down to the surface, gusty
southwest winds are expected ahead of the front, generally
between 20 to 30 knots. A line of showers is expected to
develop associated with the front this evening but blended
guidance has relatively low probabilities of restrictions
developing so for now have kept VFR conditions but there is the
potential for at least temporary restrictions associated with
the front.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No widespread restrictions
expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Saturday for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
     115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Saturday for GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$