Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
657 FXUS62 KCAE 250002 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 802 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Overall drier weather expected today as the deepest moisture moves away from the region, but isolated showers are possible around the periphery of the forecast area. Cooler air pushes into the region on Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period. Dry weather expected through much of the week with a chance of rain returning late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): - Approaching front could pop a few strong showers into the western Midlands this evening. Within a broad prefrontal trough ahead of a proper cold front across the TN Valley, some strong showers are pushing southeast out of the Upstate. Thanks to the offshore low pressure system, we have had notably drier air advected into the Midlands and CSRA this afternoon. So instability is decreasing substantially downstream of these showers and storms. Weakening is therefore expected especially once diurnal heating wanes over the next hour or so. So a few strong showers could sneak into the western Midlands, mainly Saluda, Newberry, and McCormick counties. Behind this showers, temps should cool off modestly overnight with some drier air filling in aloft with overnight lows into the upper 60`s in most spots. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - A cold frontal passage on Mon will bring cooler weather Tue An upper level trough digs into the eastern US in the short term. The associated cold front will push through the forecast area on Monday. With limited moisture ahead of the front, rainfall is unlikely. The HREF indicates potential for convection along the coast of Monday afternoon where moisture is deeper but CAMs show very little or no coverage in the forecast area. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region as high pressure builds in behind the front. Overnight lows will be cooler than the previous night in the mid to upper 60s. Tuesday will be noticeably cooler and less humid than our normal August conditions. Dewpoints will drop into the 50s with highs in the mid 80s to give us fall-like weather. Lows overnight will be in the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key message(s): - Dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures expected Little change to the long term forecast. A dry, cool air mass will remain in place through much of the extended as the region sits under the influence of persistent upper troughing and N/NE low level flow. Cool temperatures expected for the week with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s. NAEFS ESAT shows temperatures and PWATs at or below the 10th percentile in the climatological database through much of this period indicating low precip chances. Easterly flow may develop near the end of the long term ushering moisture back into the forecast area. This supports at least a slight chance of rain for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR Conditions Likely to Continue through the TAF Period.... Skies over the terminals are generally clear this evening. Showers and thunderstorms in the Upstate should dissipate prior to reaching any of the terminals, though there could be some passing mid-level cloudiness tonight. Scattered cumulus are expected to develop around midday as a cold front sweeps through the forecast area but with limited moisture in place, rain is not expected. Light and variable winds are expected tonight, with north to northwesterly winds developing on Monday after daybreak. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A drier air mass will arrive behind the cold front, likely putting an end to widespread restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$