017
FXUS62 KCAE 120519
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
119 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the South Carolina coast will move only very
slowly northeastward Sunday, providing cloudy, damp, and cool
conditions. The low will continue to gradually move away by Monday,
with high pressure bringing in drier air. High pressure will then
prevail through the week, with dry weather and temperatures within
a few degrees of normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Cloudy with rain likely across the eastern half of the
  forecast area. The rain may be heavy at times.
- The rainfall is much needed, with totals generally ranging
  from maybe 0.25" in the northern CSRA to over 2" in the
  eastern Midlands.

Rainfall continues across the central and eastern portions of the
forecast area in association with our deep upper level trough.
Surface analysis and satellite reveal the surface low just off the
SC coastline, slowly drifting north or northwest and following the
best upper level lift. Northwest of this, strong moisture and
temperature advection has led to a persistent shield of
precipitation across the eastern half of the area, with rain
generally light to moderate in nature. This rain has been completely
beneficial in nature, with up to or over an inch already observed in
our eastern counties. Guidance continues to show this shield of
precip spreading westward and overspreading the bulk of the area as
the night goes along. HRRR and HREF guidance has been persistent in
showing a band of frontogenesis developing in the 700-800 hPa layer
tonight which likely will result in some banding of precip through
early afternoon. This is already being noted as a defined band of
40+ dBz echos is being shown by composite reflectivity along the I77
corridor in our FA. With favorable synoptic/mesoscale forcing & PWs
near the 90th percentile, a decent bit of precip is expected through
the day today. A general 0.5"-1.5" is shown by HREF PMM through 00z,
but there are portions of the FA that may see totals as high as 3"
if the banding rainfall sets up and trains over a specific area.
Highs today are likely to be muted again - in the low to mid 60s
across the eastern portions of the forecast area. Uncertainty with
temps is highs across the western Midlands and northern CSRA where
rainfall is expected to be the lowest. By tonight, rain and clouds
should gradually move out of the area as the surface low pulls
northward. Look for lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Drying out with sunshine returning.

As the system pulls further away into the Atlantic, a high pressure
ridge begins to fill in behind. There may be some lingering clouds
Monday morning, especially in eastern and northern areas, but mostly
sunny skies will be entrenched across the area by afternoon. Mostly
clear skies and dry weather will continue through Tuesday night,
with high temps near to a bit above normal, while lows will be near
or a bit below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather through the week.

High pressure will dominate the weather through the work week with
little to no chance for rain. A dry cool front will move through
Wednesday or Wednesday night, maybe knocking temps down a couple of
degrees, but nothing significant. Clouds will begin to increase
again on Saturday, but ensembles mainly hold off any precipitation
until after the period in this forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Complicated TAFs are in there are all sites as rainfall and
restrictions are expected for much of the forecast period.

Rain has been impacting the Columbia and Orangeburg TAF sites for  a
while now, with OGB the only site actually seeing restrictions. This
comes in the form of MVFR cigs, and these generally are laid across
the coastal Plain where the rain has been heaviest and most
persistent. Rain is shifting westward, with banding noted in radar
reflectivity at this time. Expecting a gradual increase in MVFR cig
coverage through 12z, with both CAE and CUB forecast to be MVFR
sometime between 09z and 12z. From there, NBM/HRRR/LAMP guidance is
in great agreement that CAE/CUB/OGB remain within MVFR cigs for the
majority of the day today. Heavier rainfall may lead to lower
ceilings and/or lower visibility throughout the day today but
observations reveal 5sm as the worst vis inland so a band of precip
will have to pass over one of the sites to yield IFR vis. The
Augusta sites are a harder forecast as they are on the western edge
of the rain shield. Still have confidence in rain gradually filling
in across this area as the surface low works northward through mid-
morning, with MVFR cigs possible but definitely not certain during
this time. Have various TEMPO and PROB30 groups to account for the
variety of uncertainties I have outline here. Conditions should
slowly improve from west to east this evening and overnight, though
the Columbia/Orangeburg sites likely won`t see significant
improvement until the next forecast period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some low clouds may impact the terminals
early Monday morning, but any ceilings should move out by mid to
late morning, with VFR dominating thereafter for the week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...