Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
747 FXUS62 KCAE 031753 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 153 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Wet weather is favored this week as a stalled boundary lingers across the region. Expect chances for rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms each day, especially across the southern Midlands and CSRA. Temperatures will remain below average, potentially warming towards the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Cooler Conditions Continue with Showers through the Afternoon The front remains just south of the forecast area with drier air filtering into the northern area. PWAT values are around 1.5 inches in the north to 2 inches in the southern area. We expect similar conditions to yesterday with highs well below average and widespread clouds and showers, with the most coverage in the CSRA and southern Midlands closer to the front. The HREF shows that moderate or heavy rainfall is unlikely with the probability of total rainfall greater than a tenth of an inch from 20-40 percent. Rain will lead to cooler highs in the Central Savannah River Area, where blended guidance indicates that highs will struggle to reach 80. Elsewhere, highs will still be well below average, into the mid-80s. Rain chances expected to decrease into tonight with lows dropping into the mid to upper 60s once again. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Periods of showers likely through the period with areas of heavier rainfall possible, especially south and west of the Columbia area. - Temperatures remain below seasonal values, warmer in many locations on Tuesday as the wedge erodes. An upper trough will be centered over the Mississippi River Valley at the start of the period, sluggishly shifting eastward. As the trough approaches the FA, winds aloft should shift out of the southwest allowing PWATs to increase across the region. At the surface, a stalled boundary lingers across the area while high pressure over New England keeps wedge conditions in place on Monday, likely breaking down on Tuesday. Guidance remains divided on heavy rainfall potential but confidence in seeing 1-2 inches of precipitation through Tuesday Night is highest south and west of I-26, across the southwestern Midlands and CSRA. The GFS continues to offer a drier solution on Monday and Monday Night, showing little to no precipitation north and east of Columbia, while the Euro has widespread rainfall across the CWA. CAMs are favoring the GFS solution, suggesting that the wedge will hold for one more day before breaking down. Rain chances should be higher across the entire forecast area on Tuesday. Temperatures should remain well below normal on Monday, with warmer values possible on Tuesday, especially south and east of Columbia. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key message(s): - Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms possible through the end of the week. - Temperatures could gradually warm through the extended. The upper trough continues its slow progression towards the region while weakening. Meanwhile, weak forcing over the CWA leads to more typical daytime convection Wednesday through Friday. Guidance remains at odds during the mid to late week period, and especially towards the weekend when the GFS suggests an area of low pressure will develop off the Southeastern US, potentially moving northwest towards North Carolina. For now, have maintained the NBM solution, which shows daily rain chances and gradually warming temperatures. However, things may be drastically different if the solution advertised in the GFS plays out, so forecast confidence is low during the extended period. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Showers likely through much of the day and possibly again tonight. The surface front will remain south of the forecast area through the 24 hr TAF period. Shower activity should be highest to the south near the front and could lead to periods of MVFR restrictions at AGS and DNL. Otherwise sites should experience generally VFR ceilings with ENE winds from 5 to 10 kts. Convective activity should diminish during the evening but we will probably see a few light showers linger through the night. Winds will remain out of the ENE with another round of showers possible early Monday morning. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periods of widespread restrictions and rain possible through the week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$