Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
076 FXUS62 KCAE 240551 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 151 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. Updated 06z Aviation. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day this week. A weak frontal boundary remains stalled across the Midlands, roughly along the I-20 corridor and is expected to linger toward the coast this week. This boundary is evident in the dewpoint gradient, with values in the mid-70s to our south/east and mid-60s to our north/west. Through today and into Tuesday, the upper-level pattern will support northwest flow and continued advection of direr air into the region. As a result, rain chances will remain low, with only isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms possible. Thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain unfavorable for deep convection, with only shallow, fair weather cumulus in the afternoon. Temps will remain near normal, although still relatively warm as highs reach the low 90s. Lower dewpoints should also keep heat indices from becoming overly oppressive compared to recent weeks. Moisture will gradually increase from mid to late week, leading to increasing afternoon thunderstorm coverage. LREF probabilities indicate a 50-70 percent chance of PWAT values exceeding 1.75 inches beginning Wednesday. This increase in moisture, combined with upper- level troughing should support greater chances for diurnal convection. Weak shortwaves embedded within the flow may provide additional forcing and further enhance coverage. Thursday currently appears to have the greatest potential for precipitation as the stalled boundary may become reactivated into the FA. However, there remains uncertainty in the evolution and placement of the front. At this time, a significant airmass change appears unlikely, with seasonably warm and humid conditions expected to persist through the period with daily convection chances. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR Conditions expected through the period. Drier air filtered into the area yesterday with low level moisture lacking at the terminals. As a result, restrictions are not expected to develop through the TAF period. Generally westerly winds around 5 to 10 knots expected through today. High resolution guidance favors any thunderstorm development to remain east of the terminals with lower than 30 percent thunderstorm probabilities so have left out any mention of tsra. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated storms each afternoon with higher coverage of storms expected by midweek. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ND AVIATION...96