484
FXUS62 KCAE 231703
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1203 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold airmass currents sits over the Southeast but we should
begin to see a slow warming trend through midweek as dry
conditions continue. A cold front moves through the area
Thursday with scattered showers expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Slight chance of rain in the CSRA and S. Midlands tonight

A upper level trough over the southern Plains will track east
across the Gulf coast region in the near term. At the surface,
weak low pressure develops in the Gulf as it tracks east but
remains well south of the forecast area. Moisture will slowly
increase across the Southeast leading to high clouds spreading
into the CSRA and central SC. But the deepest moisture remains
well south. Mean PWAT values from the HREF remain below 0.8
inches in the near term. With limited low-level moisture
advection into the area, CAMs generally show showers south of
the CSRA and southern Midlands tonight. A few sprinkles are
possible toward morning in the CSRA but measurable rainfall is
unlikely given the weak isentropic lift. High level clouds ahead
of the upper low should keep temps below normal today but we
should still be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with
highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Cloudiness will increase
during the evening through the overnight hindering radiational
cooling with lows in the low 30s to the north to upper 30s
south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Warming trend continues
- System passing just to the south of the region

A zonal flow aloft will allow temperatures to warm to above
normal levels for late February through mid week. An upper level
trough is forecast to move along the Gulf Coast tonight through
Monday. Some of the models bring moisture far enough north to
bring a slight chance of showers to the Southern Midlands and
lower CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Frontal passage anticipated on Thursday

Zonal flow aloft gives way to a deep upper level trough over
the Eastern U.S. by next weekend. Temperatures are expected to
be above normal on Thursday and a cold front is anticipated to
move through the region with a chance of showers or
thunderstorms. Temperatures will cool slightly to near normal
for the start of climatological spring Friday into the weekend
with dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.

High pressure over the region today will lead to light and
variable winds for much of the TAF period. Generally west winds
are favored this afternoon but speeds remain light around 5
kts. Winds on Monday will pick up around 16Z out of the south.

An upper trough will approach from the west this afternoon and
tonight with the associated surface low passing well to our
south. Effectively this is expected to have no impact on TAF
sites with just an increase in mid/upper clouds. There`s a low
chance at AGS/DNL receiving a quick shower or sprinkle Monday
morning but this is unlikely. Fog unlikely tonight given the
cloud cover over the region and relatively dry air.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance of widespread
restrictions and rain will be Thursday as a cold front moves
through the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$