586
FXUS62 KCAE 102355
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
755 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and thunderstorm chances return to the area by this
evening, continuing into Friday as the next system moves
through the region. Near to below normal temperatures expected
to continue into the weekend. With the exception of a few
isolated showers in the Eastern Midlands on Saturday afternoon,
an extended period of dry conditions follows. Temperatures warm
up for Monday and Tuesday before a dry cold front ushers in
another shot of cooler air for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Strong-severe thunderstorms possible this evening, mainly in
  the western Midlands and CSRA.

Associated with the broad mid-upper level trough, a sharp vort
max is swinging down into the southern Appalachians. Strong lift
and coinciding instability is driving some strong-severe
convection across northern GA and the Upstate of SC. As a robust
cold pool develops over the next couple hours, these storms
will push into the CSRA and western Midlands. Instability
however will slowly subside across these areas, so a fairly
rapid weakening is expected. But the cold pool will be robust,
so some gusty showers-storms are expected with some gusts over
40 mph expected. Can`t rule out some isolated spots of severe
winds, but that will be tough to generate with very limited
surface based CAPE. Some hail is also a possibility, given the
unidirectional shear profiles, cold mid-level temps, and some
elevated instability.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Showers and a few thunderstorms move through the area Friday
  morning, with redevelopment possible in the afternoon.

- Low end (less than 20 percent) chance of a passing shower or
  two Saturday afternoon in the Eastern Midlands.

Friday and Friday Night: Upper trough to our northwest moves
south and east on Friday with the axis centered overhead by
daybreak Saturday. Meanwhile at the surface, a weak area of low
pressure is expected to form on the lee side of the
Appalachians, slowly moving northeast across North Carolina.
Isolated to scattered showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms,
will be ongoing at daybreak with rain chances lingering through
much of the daytime hours. The best chance of precipitation will
be in the Pee Dee region but a passing shower cannot be
completely ruled out anywhere in the forecast area. In terms of
the threat of severe weather, the Day 2 SPC SWO maintains a
Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather across the far eastern
Midlands. While some redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms
is possible in the afternoon, the overall severe threat appears
to be low even in the eastern FA, as the best conditions for
convection lie to our northeast. With the surface low passing to
our north, winds may be breezy at times, especially in the
afternoon. Rain chances should come to an end shortly after
sunset with clear to mostly clear skies at night, though some
low clouds may linger in the east. Forecast highs range from the
mid-60s to mid-70s, falling into the mid to upper 40s at night.

Saturday and Saturday Night: Upper trough is slow to move east
on Saturday, lingering across the eastern CONUS. A shortwave
passing around the base of the trough could create enough lift
for a few showers, mainly along and east of I-95, but the
overall risk is low, less than 20 percent. Otherwise, its a cool
and dry day on Saturday with below normal daytime and nighttime
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- An extended period of dry conditions expected.

- Above normal temperatures expected early next week.

Upper trough axis should be centered over New England at the
start of the extended with northwest flow overhead. At the
surface, high pressure will be settling in place, resulting in
another dry day with warmer, albeit near to below normal,
temperatures. The warming trend continues into Monday as the
high shifts to our southeast. Guidance remains divided regarding
the passage of a cold front on Tuesday. Temperatures may be
slightly lower on Tuesday depending on when the boundary comes
through. One thing that guidance appears more confident in is
that the chance of precipitation remains very low, less than 10
percent. A reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air moves in
behind the cold front to close out the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly VFR Conditions expected with brief restrictions possible
in showers and isolated storms overnight.

VFR conditions in place at all terminals with cumulus deck
around 6 to 7kft. Showers and thunderstorms upstream are likely
to approach the terminals tonight and while they will likely
weaken, HiRes guidance still indicates the possibility of tsra
at Augusta and Columbia terminals. Regardless of whether
lightning is observed, there will likely be a brief period of
gusty winds and lowering visibilities associated with the
decaying system moving through the terminals. This line will
continue to push east of the terminals by early Friday morning.
Breezy winds expected tomorrow out of the west with gusts
generally between 15 to 20 knots. While there will be possible
showers tomorrow or an isolated thunderstorm, confidence is too
low to include in TAFs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air returns to the region for
the weekend into next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$