756
FXUS62 KCAE 042334
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
734 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will
build into the area for the weekend. Temperatures remain near or
above seasonable values through the weekend. A cold front moves
through Monday night, ushering in even drier and refreshingly
cooler temperatures for the remainder of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

- None

Satellite imagery this evening shows widespread mid to high
level cloudiness streaming across the FA from the southwest.
Model guidance suggests that the clouds will remain overhead
through the overnight period, likely preventing fog development
in most locations. Temperatures tonight should be a few degrees
warmer due to the clouds, falling into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Warm and dry weather expected to continue through the weekend

High pressure builds over the northeastern States, while
ridging southward through the weekend. This will keep mild and
dry conditions across the region through Sunday. Plenty of
sunshine expected each afternoon, allowing temperatures to climb
into the low to mid 80s once again. Overnight lows will remain
unseasonably mild with lows in the low to middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Dry cold front Monday night will usher in cooler temperatures
  for Tuesday onward with a change in airmass.

- Any potential mid-week tropical development in the Gulf is
  expected to remain well south of the region.

Models continue to show a cold front moving towards the region
on Monday, then pushing through the area Monday night into
Tuesday. Moisture is very limited with this system, and thus it
should push through dry. Ahead of the front for Monday, enough
sun and ridging will bring one more warm day across the area,
with highs reaching the middle 80s. Pretty good airmass change
then occurs as the front moves through by Tuesday. Cooler and
even drier air will push into the cwa, and this airmass will be
in control of our weather through the end of the week.
Temperatures will be refreshing, with highs in the mid 70s to
around 80 on Tuesday, then mostly in the middle 70s for the
remainder of the work week. Tuesday night will see overnight
lows dropping into the low 50s north and the upper 50s south,
then even cooler low temperatures each night into Friday.
Northern counties may see upper 40s, with remainder of the cwa
in the low to middle 50s. With the dry air, no rainfall expected
at this time. For anyone keeping an eye on the Gulf of Mexico,
any disturbances forming there next week should remain well to
our south, mainly impacting portions of Florida.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for most of the period.

Surface high pressure remains entrenched across the region.
Upper level jet passing to our north has just enough energy to
force some mid and high level clouds but these are expected to
remain VFR through the period. Clouds will continue overnight
for most TAF sites, keeping fog and low stratus out of the
forecast. Winds throughout the period will be influenced by the
persistent surface high with the predominant direction easterly
or northeasterly between 3 and 8 knots. Clouds expected to thin
out after 18z Saturday from the north.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Key Messages:

- Flood warnings continue along the Congaree River although
  rivers have crested. River levels will continue to fall
  through the weekend.

The Congaree river remains above flood stage downstream in the
Congaree National Park. The river will continue to recede over
the next couple of days.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$