Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
380 FXUS62 KCAE 020141 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 941 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and storms through the evening. This heat spell is expected to break as a cold front is forecast to bring cooler conditions for the weekend. Chances for typical afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continue each day through the forecast period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): - Lingering scattered storms producing heavy rain and gusty winds. - Cold front pushes south of the area by morning Scattered to widespread thunderstorms developed and moved through the Midlands producing some damaging wind gusts and flash flooding. This convection continues to move southward through the Midlands into the CSRA late this evening. A weak cold front will sink south through the area bringing some relief from the extended heat wave we have been experiencing. Expect low clouds to develop with the cooler advection and lingering low level moisture in place. Overnight lows expected to be a bit cooler with a northeasterly wind with lows in the upper 60s north to lower 70s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Cold front pushing through the region will bring unseasonably cool temperatures to the region - Rain chances over the region remain high but are uncertain and modulated by how far south and west the surface front makes it The cold front is generally forecast by guidance to be pushing through the forecast area during the day on Saturday. Slowly but surely, it should be in the southern/western portion of the area by Sunday. Copious moisture is still expected to remain across the area through the day on Saturday, and while overall flow in the low- levels (through ~850 hPa at least) shifts northeasterly, the presence of frontal forcing should aid in rain showers persisting at times through the day on Saturday. How heavy and widespread they will be is up for debate, as the spread amongst guidance solutions is abnormally high for this range. Coverage may be similar to today and yesterday but widespread thunderstorms look pretty unlikely. There may be some heavier rain in showers across the CSRA & southern Midlands with embedded rumbles of thunder as well. But in general, this should be more rain showers than it has been this week. The best sensible weather impact should be the presence of well below normal temps. Cloud cover is expected most of the day, and with periodic showers, highs should only get into the lower 80s. The front is forecast to continue pushing south and southwestward overnight on Saturday, with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. By early Sunday, guidance remains all over the place with respect to where the surface boundary will be. This is critical for sensible weather on Sunday and heading into next week, too, as it will modulate rain chances for multiple days. The ECMWF continues to look like an outlier, hanging the front up directly in the CSRA and southern Midlands. Meanwhile, the NAM (which handles backdoor fronts well historically), GFS, and Canadian all push the front through the area by Sunday, with it stretching from the SC coastal plain to south-central GA. However, even this solution leads to different sensible weather with the Canadian showing widespread rainfall across the western FA Sunday atop the surface CAD setup. In addition to the difference between surface front patterns, there is a shortwave aloft that should push into the TN Valley Sunday morning that models are handling different. The wetter solutions are slightly more amplified with the trough, which places more of a strong right-entrance region of the upper level jet streak over us. This would introduce more isentropic lift to the reign and lead to showers developing through the day on Sunday. The drier solutions are flatter and faster with the trough, leading to a lack of isentropic lift. Not totally confident in which is going to work out as the models are split on this. Lean towards trusting the NAM given its usual excellence with CAD events but trusting the NAM is a tough place to be in. Regardless, the best chance for rainfall on Sunday certainly looks to be across the western/southern Midlands and CSRA, with the possibility that rainfall ends up being more widespread than that. The northern Midlands could end up with quite the nice Sunday if drier solutions work out. Regardless, clouds will continue to be around and should keep things cool. Temperatures continue to look well below normal, with upper 70s and low 80s expected. Similar uncertainty as to how intense and/or widespread precip is going into Sunday night, with lows likely in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key message(s): - Confidence is relatively high in a cool and wet period through the middle of next week. In general, the long term does look fairly active with the surface CAD boundary slowly lifting northward and becoming more diffuse through the week. As it does so, a trough is expected to continue amplifying to our west by midweek, with PWs returning back to 1.9"+ range for most of the week. Given the trough setting up to our west, increasing moisture, and diffuse front returning towards the region, shortwaves aloft will have an easy time initiating showers and storms each day. PoPs should be in the 45%-75% range each afternoon, above normal this time of year especially for this point in the forecast. So while temperatures will likely moderate into the upper 80s, this will still be a few degrees below normal across the area through the week. Depending on how much rain falls where this weekend into early next week, we`ll need to be increasingly aware of a flash flooding possibility as we get further into next week. While the ECMWF and ECE are the wettest guidance, the ECE EFI does point to high QPF potential in the CSRA during the Sat-Thur timeframe, with high EFI values and a shift-of-tails of ~1. So while there is uncertainty throughout the short/long term, its likely that someone will end up with quite a bit of rainfall in this kind of pattern. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered storms this evening bringing possible restrictions, then more widespread restrictions expected after midnight through Saturday. Scattered convection continues across the area and could result in periodic restrictions through 02-03z. A cold front will sink south through the area overnight and winds will shift to the northeast around 5 knots overnight behind the front. Low clouds are expected to develop behind the front with MVFR cigs initially then lowering to IFR all terminals during the 06z-10z time frame. Lower confidence in vsby restrictions although they are possible, especially during the 12z-15z time frame with some possible drizzle as wedge like conditions develop. Northeast winds around 5 to 8 knots expected through the day with low clouds persisting through the end of the forecast period. IFR cigs should improve to MVFR during the afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cold front in the area will keep chances of more widespread restrictions and rain this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$