Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
776 FXUS62 KCAE 072334 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 734 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Severe weather potential increases somewhat starting today, with additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday as an active weather pattern develops. Conditions are favorable for showers and thunderstorms to push through the Southeast US during the next seven days, though we should transition to less organized summertime pulse convection by late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): - Severe Thunderstorm Watch until Midnight for all of our counties west of I77/I26 - Damaging winds and small hail are the biggest threats with these storms as they push eastward A robust MCS has continued marching eastward this evening and continues to pose a threat for severe thunderstorm hazards across the CSRA and Midlands. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued as a result. The downstream environment is still pretty robust, with 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE, DCAPE values of 1200+ j/kg, and steep low-level lapse rates around 7.5 c/km per SPC mesoanalysis. While this cluster is likely to ebb and flow with strength over the next couple of hours, the aforementioned environmental characteristics should support severe thunderstorms as this cluster continues pushing eastward. Look for damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and hail up to nickel size to be the primary threats. There is a lot of lightning associated with the strongest convection, so that is also a hazard to watch out for. Convection remains a distinct possibility overnight, especially after 09z, but the current hazards are taking priority over that right now. Will revisit that threat later this evening as more guidance comes in. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Severe weather possible again on Sunday and Monday. - The primary severe hazard both days will be damaging wind gusts. A series of shortwaves will likely trigger the development of strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the forecast area during the short term. The entire CWA remains in a Slight (2/5) risk for severe weather on Day 2 (Sunday) and Day 3 (Monday) with damaging wind gusts being identified as the primary severe weather risk. While confidence in exact timing of the convection remains low, latest guidance shows the passage of the aforementioned shortwaves Sunday afternoon and evening and again Monday evening into early Monday night. The second shortwave will be further supported by the approach of a larger trough moving into the Great Lakes region. This would suggest that while the lift may be stronger on Monday, the timing of the shortwave on Sunday may be more favorable for severe weather. CAMs indicate that the greatest risk for thunderstorms on Sunday will be along and south/east of I-20 but any lingering mesoscale boundaries from today`s weather could aid in convective development, so the entire region should remain weather aware both Sunday and Monday. There should be more clouds around during the short term, especially Sunday, which may play a role in thunderstorm development in addition to daytime temperatures, which will likely be cooler than today, especially in the northern and western CWA. Winds may be gusty at times on Sunday, especially on Lake Murray but a Lake Wind Advisory does not appear to be needed at this time. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Message(s): - Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the extended period as the overall pattern becomes increasingly summer like. An upper trough passes to our north Tuesday into Tuesday night, being replaced by upper ridging for the remainder of the long term. With the extra support in place, Tuesday may be another day favorable for organized showers and thunderstorms. Beyond this, temperatures should gradually climb or hold steady with more summer like heat and humidity. With an upper ridge moving overhead, any convection will likely be disorganized and limited in aerial coverage, especially late in the extended. A front may stall somewhere across the region for the mid to late week period, which would aid in convective development. With hot temperatures inland, the sea breeze may also trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, especially near the lingering frontal boundary. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the afternoon before thunderstorms move across the region this evening. VFR conditions continue this afternoon with only some fair weather cumulus. Gusty winds out of the southwest are expected as well with some gusts to around 25 knots likely. Conditions deteriorate this evening as a strong line of storms pushes towards the area from the west. A prob30 group for TSRA is included for now as timing confidence is relatively low. Overall, confidence is higher in impacts at AGS and DNL compared to the other TAF sites. Outflow boundaries and shortwave activity may also allow thunderstorms to redevelop late tonight and early Sunday morning. Gusty winds will pick back up around 15Z Sunday out of the SW with gusts around 25 kts in the afternoon and more thunderstorms possibly, especially in the eastern FA near OGB. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Deep moisture remains in place through mid-week, leading to potential early morning restrictions and diurnal convection each day. Thunderstorms over the weekend may also bring restrictions along with gusty and erratic winds. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...