Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
007 FXUS62 KCAE 251040 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 640 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the region today, remaining in place into early next week. This will likely result in less convection but also the potential for a prolonged period of dangerous heat and humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Partly to mostly sunny with a few showers or thunderstorms possible. The best chance of rain will be across the CSRA. High pressure builds into the region today, kicking off a warming trend. Temperatures are expected to climb into the lower to mid 90s with peak heat index values in the 98 to 105 degree range, below our 108 Heat Advisory criteria. Rain chances are expected to be lower than yesterday, with the highest probabilities expected this afternoon across our Georgia counties. Any convection dissipates with the loss of daytime heating with temperatures falling into the mid-70s Friday night. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Upper ridge building with increasing heat across the area. - This will be the start of a significant Heat Wave lasting into next week. Strong upper ridge will be strengthening across the region through the weekend. NAEFS continues to show 500mb heights around the max amounts for climatological norms through the weekend. This will bring very hot temperatures across the region, with afternoon highs expected around 100 degrees on Saturday, and in the lower 100s for Sunday. This will generally be the start of what is going to be a stretch of significant Heat Wave across much of the region which will last into next week. Heat index readings for Saturday will be approaching Heat Advisory criteria criteria around 108, and will continue to monitor trend, so can not rule out the need for and Advisory. Sunday, moisture begins to increase into the afternoon. Due to this, heat index readings appear to be much more likely to rise into an Advisory with values between 108-111 currently forecast. Fully expect the need for at to be issued at some point this weekend. The high pressure should keep mainly dry conditions across the forecast area, with maybe an isolated shower at best Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key message(s): - Potential for a prolonged, dangerous heat event late this weekend into next week. Low-level moisture will remain high through at least the middle of the week. The upper ridge continues to dominate at least through mid-week, with highs forecast close to or above 100 degrees each day through Wednesday. On top of that, overnight lows may only fall into the upper 70s, or around 80, with the warmest lows expected Monday morning. This will give little relief to the heat through the overnight hours. Due to this, confidence remains very high in the development of dangerous heat over the area through the middle of next week. Heat index values are currently forecast to reach into the Extreme Heat Warning criteria for many areas on Monday and Tuesday, with Advisory conditions possible by Wednesday. Expect multiple days of Heat products needing to be issues for the entire forecast area due to these conditions. Some change is possible beginning by the end of the week as the strong upper ridge begins shifting off to the west and heights slowly fall across the region. Temperatures will still remain above average, but afternoon highs should finally drop below 100 for most areas on Thursday. Rain chances most days remain mainly isolated to scattered each afternoon through the extended. Once again, the main concern through this period is going to be the expected heat wave, and associated heat indices, that will take hold. These will be a dangerous few days for anyone working outdoors, or for homes without air conditioning. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Brief Restrictions Possible at OGB and AGS This Morning... Sunrise reveals areas of patchy fog across portions of the forecast area. These are currently impacting OGB and AGS with highly variable changes in visibility and ceilings. Restrictions will remain possible during the next few hours. Otherwise, these low clouds will lift and transition to SCT cumulus by the afternoon. Rain chances will be lower today due to high pressure moving into the region. Overall, confidence is low so omitted rain chances except at AGS/DNL where a PROB30 remains in the forecast. Any showers that form quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating, giving way to clear skies and light winds tonight at the terminals. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some spotty afternoon convection could bring brief periods of restrictions this weekend and into early next week but outside of this, VFR conditions are expected to prevail each day. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$