253
FXUS62 KCAE 051741
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
141 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect above normal temperatures to continue today and
Saturday. A cold front moves into the area this weekend, leading
to a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler weather is
expected early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Warm and humid today ahead of an approaching frontal
  boundary.

This afternoon: Visible satellite imagery shows cumulus
development across the region in a warm and moist air mass.
Satellite derived PWATs are around 1.5 inches and convective
temps have been reached with many locations approaching 90
degrees already. Max temperatures expected to top out in the
lower to mid 90s. Forecast soundings indicate a strong
subsidence inversion around 700mb which should limit convection
today despite sufficient low level moisture and weak
instability. Hi-res guidance suggests an isolated shower or two
may be possible late afternoon into early evening before sunset
but anything that develops should be short lived and provided
limited impact.

Tonight: A frontal boundary currently located across the Ohio
Valley will approach the forecast area overnight but remain to
the west and any associated convection should also remain to the
west and will continue a dry forecast. Some higher clouds
expected to move into the region after midnight as the front
approaches which will limit radiational cooling and expect
another mild night with lows in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Hot and humid on Saturday with a chance of late day showers
  or thunderstorms, especially across the north and west as a
  cold front nears.

- A cold front moves through the area Sunday, bringing a large
  temperature gradient and possibly some more showers and
  storms.

Saturday and Saturday Night: The upper trough over the Great
Lakes will continue toward the east with a cold front from the
occluded surface low near Hudson Bay starting to move into the
Tennessee Valley by the morning hours. Southwesterly flow will
allow temperatures to reach the mid 90s and PWAT`s are expected
to begin nearing 1.70-1.85" though the day, possibly a bit
higher as the front nears during the evening hours. This should
bring muggy conditions through the day but the main change in
the forecast is the recent trend in CAMs and in the 12z HREF
solution to bring this front into the upstate and toward the
northern FA by the early evening with decent convergence along
it. This now brings an outside chance for perhaps some spotty
showers or storms starting in the late afternoon but the better
chance for isolated to scattered storms comes during the evening
hours as the front beings to enter the northern FA. With the
later timing of the front, instability is rather meager and will
be diminishing with the loss of heating. This is reflected in
CAM guidance with a broken line of scattered storms approaching
the northern FA from the upstate that quickly weaken. An
isolated strong storm could be possible but widespread severe
weather is not anticipated and the greatest coverage is expected
across the western Midlands and into the Pee Dee region. There
is some uncertainty in the timing of the front still and the
southern extent of activity, as seen in the HRW-ARW and NSSL,
where it`s earlier timing also brings coverage down into the
CSRA so this will be the main factor to look out for. The front
will continue through the area overnight but shower/storm
chances are expected to decline.


Sunday and Sunday Night: The front will continue through the
CWA, likely clearing majority of the area by daybreak. This will
start to shift winds out of the northwest that will usher in
drier air (PWAT`s under 1.5"), but this may be delayed some,
especially the further SW you go. Depending on the speed of the
front, a large temperature gradient could be seen in the
afternoon where temperatures could be in the low to mid 80s in
the NW and in the upper 80s to near 90 in the SE. Due to greater
heating south of I-20 and prolonged SW flow ahead of the front,
deeper moisture should be in place here and thus by the
afternoon isolated to scattered showers and storms along and
south of I-20 will be possible. Severe weather is not
anticipated with this activity at this time and coverage will
largely be driven by the speed of the front as it is expected to
slow down some on Sunday, but if it clears the FA earlier, this
may limit shower/storm chances during the afternoon and
evening. The front fully clears the area during the evening and
drier air will continue to push in from the NW with any rain
chances diminishing overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Cooler and drier weather expected next week behind the front
  before warming some into the mid to late week.

Not much change in the extended forecast with strong surface
high pressure sliding into the Ohio Valley and eventually New
England behind the cold front for the early week and into the
mid week. Both the GEFS, EC ensemble, and their deterministic
counterparts show some inverted surface troughing developing off
the coast through the midweek and thus a couple breezy
afternoon`s could be possible next week with a tightening
pressure gradient. Aloft, weak troughing starts out in the
Mississippi Valley before slowly sliding into the region by the
mid to late week with ridging off the coast and over the central
US. This pattern should bring temperatures decently below
normal through Wednesday (4-6 degrees below normal) and drier
air (PWAT`s likely under 1.25"). Things begin to change some as
surface high pressure begins to slide off the northeast coast
and a cold front begins to near from the north during the late
week. This leads to increasing temperatures and moisture, but
the area is expected to remain mostly dry this time through the
late week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

High confidence in VFR conditions through the 24hr forecast
period outside of possible patchy morning fog at AGS/OGB.

Low level moisture combined with diurnal instability is
resulting in developing cumulus which should continue to expand
across the forecast area through the afternoon. Mid level dry
air and a subsidence inversion should prevent much convection
today. Winds generally expected to be from the southwest around
5 to knots through the day before diminishing to light and
variable overnight. Lingering low level moisture tonight may
support patchy fog at prone AGS/OGB so will include a tempo
group for reduced vsbys there.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...An approaching front may lead to
some afternoon/evening convection on Saturday and the front will
be in the vicinity on Sunday adding chances for possible
restrictions. A cooler and drier air mass should settle over the
region early next week behind the front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$