Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
757 FXUS62 KCAE 061744 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1244 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather then continues into the weekend and potentially into early next week. Dry conditions are then anticipated for the mid to late week period while temperatures remain below normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Cold with low clouds and widespread rain today. - Fog likely tonight with visibilities less than 1/4 mile possible. Widespread rain, low clouds and temperatures in the 40s once again across the area in a similar setup to yesterday with southwesterly flow aloft. Deep layer moisture a bit lower compared to this time yesterday with rain generally light. With a stronger shortwave approaching the area late this afternoon into this evening, rain expected to continue but more zonal flow aloft behind the shortwave will lead to some drier air aloft moving in from the northwest. As a result, rain is expected to taper off with HREF mean indicating decreasing mid and upper level clouds. Consensus among forecast soundings is low level moisture will remain over the area with flow in the boundary layer. This will likely lead to fog development tonight, especially in the northwestern portion of the area where high and mid level clouds will scour out. Blended guidance favors temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s tonight which with dew points in the 40s currently would be a favorable setup for fog to become dense with visibilities less than a quarter mile. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Patchy dense fog Sunday morning - Increased chances of light rain on Monday - Drier and cold for Tuesday ...Patchy Dense Fog Sunday Morning... Low level moisture will remain trapped below a low level inversion, setting the stage for areas of fog, some of it locally dense. With the low level jet pulling away, it may take a few hours before it burns off completely, so I`ve extended the time in the grids until late morning. By afternoon, the fog should have lifted into a low overcast for most places. We may even see some breaks of sun over the Catawba/Pee Dee areas. Temps will remain several degrees below normal ...Areas of light rain Monday... The next shortwave passes through on Monday. We should have some decent lift sue to PVA, but the amount of rain that falls is less certain as there is a decent sized spread among the ensembles, ranging from very little to as much as an inch. Given the chances of PWs being 1/2 inch or more drop throughout the day from the ensembles, I think low end chance POPs are best. There will be cold advection at low levels as well, but model forecast profiles do not indicate any frozen precipitation in our CWA. We`ll keep an eye on it, of course, but nothing to worry about at this time. ...Drier and Chilly Conditions Tuesday... Polar high pressure moves into the area by Tuesday. Cold advection will be king for a day, as morning temps go well below freezing, and highs are 10-15 degrees below normal. We should finally have a decent amount of sunshine, however. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key message(s): - Temperatures slowly moderate mid week - Next cold front moves through Friday ...Temperatures slowly moderate Wednesday and Thursday... Ensemble means show the jet stream migrating north for the middle of next week, allowing the air mass over the region to modify for a couple of days, although I wouldn`t put on my bathing suit to take a dip in a lake anytime soon. High pressure at the surface will keep things dry. ...Next cold front moves through Friday... Models across the board are consistent with the next front moving through sometime on Friday, ranging from early morning to evening. This makes temperatures tricky on Friday as an earlier front would mean much colder conditions by afternoon, while a later front will allow things to stay mild most of the day. In either case, the chances for rain are not overly high as the air mass will continue to be rather dry. Things cool down significantly again for Saturday as another blast of arctic air moves into the U.S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread restrictions continue today, fog developing tonight. Low clouds and widespread rain continuing this afternoon. A mix of low MVFR and IFR ceilings will continue with visibilities generally expected to be greater than 3SM as rain remains light. A shortwave moving in from the west tonight will likely scour out some of the lower clouds and push rain to the southeast. While this will likely lead to brief improvement, a favorable setup for widespread fog developing tonight with weak low level flow and low level moisture remaining in place. For now have kept restrictions IFR at all terminals but remains possible for periods of visibilities less than 1SM. Improvements expected late Sunday morning. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Lingering low level moisture may result in restrictions into Monday with drier air expected Tuesday through the end of the period. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$