Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
584 FXUS62 KCAE 052354 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 754 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Severe weather potential increases over the weekend as an active weather pattern develops. Conditions are favorable for several rounds of thunderstorms to push through the Southeast to end the week and over the weekend. The active weather pattern will likely persist through the long term with a high chance to likely PoPs most days. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): - Isolated to scattered showers/storms over the far eastern Midlands this evening to diminish overnight. Satellite imagery is showing some drier air pushing into the forecast area this evening, which has helped push this afternoon`s activity east of the forecast area. However, a seabreeze boundary pushing into the far eastern Midlands has sparked some additional activity mainly near the I-95 corridor. Expect this activity to diminish as we begin to lose the daytime heating. Overnight lows are expected to be mild again, with temps near 70. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Severe weather possible on Saturday and Sunday - Damaging wind gusts along a line of storms is the main threat - Timing of the storms would most likely be late afternoon The upper level pattern becomes more zonal in the short term. This will allow several rounds of shortwave troughs to move across the Southeast with the main/strongest shortwave moving through on Sunday. The timing of the shortwaves and how they coincide with peak heating will be one of the largest determining factors for severe weather potential over the next few days. These disturbances should support convection across the Ohio/TN River Valley earlier in the day and into the afternoon as storms grow upscale into larger MCSs. There`s indication that these MCSs could dig into central SC and the CSRA bringing a threat of damaging winds late in the day. Friday appears least favorable for severe weather due to the timing of the shortwave and associated thunderstorms. The HREF and CAMs generally show a line of storms approaching the FA in the evening or overnight but weakening significantly as instability wanes. Unless the timing changes to be significantly earlier the chances for severe weather Friday appears low. On Saturday and Sunday however, the timing of the shortwaves appears to be more in line with peak heating. EFI CAPE values of around 0.5 and median NBM CAPE values of around 1500 J/kg indicate some potential for a strengthening line of storms as MCSs work into the region from the west. Moderate 0-3 km shear values of 15 to 20 km from speed shear but relatively weak deep layer and 0-1 km shear values are supportive of a convective line with damaging wind swaths being the main threat on Saturday and Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Message(s): - Active weather pattern continues in the long term Global ensembles favor troughing developing over the eastern US in the long term as shortwave energy swings into the broader trough. SW flow is likely to strengthen as the upper trough amplifies allowing deep moisture advection into the forecast area. IVT from the NAEFS approaches the 98th percentile for this time of year showing the potential for strong moisture advection ahead of a cold front, particularly on Tuesday. Shortwave activity, strong moisture transport and convergence ahead of a front all point to an active weather pattern with a high chance to likely PoPs each day of the long term. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions occurring at all terminals early this evening. A few -SHRA have developed near OGB, otherwise no precip expected at the TAF sites. Guidance has backed off on the possibility of widespread and lengthy restrictions tonight, but still have maintained high-end MVFR for several hours early Friday until around 06/12Z. Some patchy fog will be possible overnight but maintained MVFR VSBYs. There is a chance for some brief IFR conditions but confidence is too low to have them in the TAfs right now. VFR conditions should return Friday and continue through the day. Winds generally W/NW at 8 kts or less through the period, with some light and variable winds during the overnight hours. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture remains in place over the area through much of the period, leading to potential early morning restrictions and diurnal convection each day. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$