Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
393 FXUS62 KCAE 021124 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 624 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances increase later today as low pressure develops to our east. This will be followed by an extended period of dry weather courtesy of passing high pressure systems. Temperatures gradually warm next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Chilly morning ahead, with some rain chances across the central & eastern Midlands later today. This Morning: Ahead of a robust digging trough, deep persistent dry air is lingering in place over the area early this morning, despite some increasing southwesterly flow aloft; PWAT`s remain well below 1" with surface dews in the low 40`s and 30`s. Outside of a couple high bands of high cirrus, this dry air is helping another night of good radiational cooling and morning lows in the upper 30`s or low 40`s. Some areas of river-lake fog are visible in the nighttime IR imagery and could be dense in spots. This Afternoon-Evening: The trough will steadily dig further southeast throughout the day today and steadily advect some deeper moisture and cloud cover into the area. The trough will maintain a generally positive tilt as it dives towards the area and while PWAT`s will climb, they will only top out around 1.0" later this evening. As the trough interacts with an offshore thermal gradient and begins to spin up a weak coastal low, some modest WAA and isentropic lift will overspread westward into the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee. This will yield some decent rain chances late this afternoon and evening, into Monday morning. Instability will be tough to come by, by ideal diurnal timing and the steep 850-500mb lapse rates could help a few hundred J/kg ML CAPE develop and therefore a few rumbles of thunder across the east cannot be ruled out. Guidance continues to highlight a pocket of instability and associated thunderstorms directly under the 500mb trough axis, thanks to the very impressive lapse rates, but this should remain to our west across central GA late this afternoon. However, a shift in timing could force some of these showers-storms into the CSRA this evening. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Conditions improve as the storm system departs the region. The upper trough will be overhead at the start of the short term, moving offshore and being replaced by weak ridging by the end of the period. At the surface, the storm system will already be to our east at daybreak Monday but there may be some lingering rain early in the day, mainly along and east of I-95. Gradual west to east clearing is expected as the day goes on and high pressure builds in from the west. Highs should be similar to today with values generally in the mid-60s, warmest in the CSRA. Skies should be clear at night but winds are expected to remain high enough to prevent idealized radiational cooling so temperatures only fall into the lower to mid 40s, with upper 30s expected in normally cold locations. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key message(s): - Dry weather expected through Friday with gradually warming temperatures. - Next chance of rain arrives on Saturday. A series of anticyclones will bring an extended period of dry weather to the FA during much of the long term. With weak ridging or zonal flow aloft, temperatures are expected to be near normal on Tuesday, followed by a gradual warming trend. As temperatures rise, the threat of frost at night will continue to decrease despite favorable conditions for radiational cooling. The next chance of rain arrives this weekend but there are significant differences in the guidance and confidence is low. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some morning fog-stratus possible especially for AGS and OGB with MVFR-IFR restrictions. Another calm night and good cooling will likely produce some morning fog and stratus, especially near rivers. So some restrictions through 13z or so are possible at the typical sites in AGS and OGB. Sunrise fog is possible at CAE as well but confidence is a bit lower. Otherwise, an approaching low this afternoon will increase southeasterly winds slightly today and some showers-storms are possible late this afternoon. The best chance is at OGB and will be reflected in upcoming TAF`s; prob30 groups are included for the other TAF sites for showers this evening. While unlikely, the best chance for a t-storm is again at OGB but low confidence. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some residual showers and low cigs possible Monday morning but otherwise no issues expected beyond Monday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...