Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
742 FXUS62 KCAE 081922 CCA AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Columbia SC 222 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move through the area overnight. Strong high pressure New England will build south through the Carolinas into Georgia Saturday through Sunday. Moisture will spread north Sunday and weak cold air damming will develop. Scattered light rain or drizzle expected Sunday with cooler temperatures. Another cold front will move into the area Sunday night into Monday with additional scattered showers. Drier and seasonable Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front moves toward the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - A few isolated showers possible overnight into Saturday ahead of much drier air. The stalled front over the area will linger the rest of Friday, but limited moisture convergence will prevent any notable precip. Despite cloud cover, high temps will still sneak into the upper 70`s and low 80`s as most of the area is on the warm side of this stalled front. As high pressure shifts eastward across the Ohio Valley, northeast flow will develop and front will be forced southward by early Saturday. Lower dew points will surge south into the Pee Dee and Upstate of SC, and a few showers are possible as this front sinks south thanks to increases convergence and ample moisture. Fog and stratus is likely to develop anywhere south of the front by daybreak Saturday, most likely in the CSRA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): -Dry and seasonable Saturday. -Cool with scattered light rain and drizzle Sunday. Scattered showers continue Sunday night. Saturday and Saturday night...Upper ridge over the area will be shifting offshore. The Cold front will be in Georgia by morning. Drier air will be advecting south through the area but enough low- level moisture around the southern portion of the CWA, closer to the front for a few clouds in weak warm advection/onshore flow pattern. Precipitable water expected to fall below 1 inch in the northern Midlands. Stayed close to the NBM temperature guidance. Highs mainly in the low 70s. Moisture flux and weak isentropic lift will develop late Saturday night focused in east central Ga north into the west Midlands and Piedmont. Sunday and Sunday night..The moisture flux will shift north into the Midlands and expected deepening moisture by later in the day. Precipitable water increase to near 1.75 inches. The set up appears to be a weak and progressive wedge as the surface ridge to the north moves southeast and is positioned east of the Mid Atlantic. Isentropic lift appears strong enough for scattered light rain/drizzle with highest pops in the west Midlands/CSRA and Piedmont. Deep low in the Midwest will move northeast and low amplitude upper trough will move toward the area. Models show a mid level short wave moving thru Sunday night to provide some lift, surface front appears to hang up in the Carolina Mountains. Scattered showers/maybe even an isolated thunderstorm, (some weak instability noted) possible overnight. So went with cooler Mos temperatures, NBM temps including 25th percentile appear to high for max temperatures Sunday. So highs in the 60s across the west and north with low 70s southeast. Lows in the mid 50s to low 60s Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Message(s): - A few showers associated with frontal passages. - Temperatures more seasonable late in the week. There is enough of a push for the front to move south of the area Monday night and early Tuesday. A few widely scattered showers as the front moves thru. Drier air Tuesday through mid week. Ensembles building ridge in the eastern CONUS. Expect temperatures back above normal. Another cold front moves through late Wednesday night into Thursday with maybe a few showers but expect mainly dry. Temperatures seasonable behind the front. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR and VFR conditions expected through Friday evening. Lowering cigs and vsby likely Saturday morning. Low cigs and fog has mixed out across the area, with only some MVFR cigs in AGS and DNL as of 18z. All sites should go VFR by 20z, and remain VFR through the early Saturday morning. Winds will remain light the rest of Friday before strengthening out of the northeast early Saturday. Some drier low level air will begin to move in early Saturday, and should prevent widespread fog-stratus Saturday morning. However, AGS and DNL will likely see significant restrictions again Saturday morning with IFR- LIFR cigs and vsby; OGB will also see some restrictions should remain IFR. CAE and CUB may see brief reductions in vsby and cigs but not forecasting anything more lower than MVFR currently. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Lingering low moisture will lead to the potential for early morning restrictions into the weekend and into early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... The North Fork of the Edisto at Orangeburg remains in major flood, but is slowly receding. Water flowing south from the river into the South Fork is also producing flooding especially near Branchville. Slowly improving conditions expected over the next couple of days with any additional rainfall being minimal. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$