Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
814 FXUS62 KCAE 312358 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 758 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building in from the north keeps relatively dry conditions and below normal temperatures through Tuesday. Low chances for precipitation late Wednesday and Thursday as a disturbance passes through, with drier and warmer conditions for late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): -Cool high pressure continues to fill into the area. Surface high pressure continues to push into the region from the northeast, allowing for quiet weather conditions to persist overnight. Meanwhile, broad upper troughing remains over the area. A low level jet is expected to develop tonight, resulting in some periodic elevated winds across the forecast area. Despite that, overnight lows are forecast to be several degrees cooler than average due to the very dry air in place. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Below normal temperatures and very low humidity. A closed upper level low over the Mid-Atlantic on Monday will slowly lift northward and open up as it moves into southern Quebec by Tuesday night. The result will be persistent broad upper level troughing over the region through the period. At the surface, a wave of low pressure will move northeast along a baroclinic zone off the Carolina coast on Monday, acting to reinforce a surface wedge of high pressure which will continue to build down along the lee of the Appalachians through Tuesday. The low-level flow will be northeasterly while the mid/upper-level flow will have more of a northwesterly/westerly component. This will result in very dry conditions across the area with mainly high level cloudiness expected. Very low dew points (HREF mean depicts upper 40s to lower 50s) and precipitable water values (HREF mean depicts PWATs of 0.6-1.0 inches) will keep the relative humidity at levels rarely seen for this time of year. Only slight modification is expected for Tuesday. Temperatures will also be unseasonably cool, with daytime highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and nighttime lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. One other note, winds could be breezy at times on Monday as the low-level inversion breaks and a modest low level jet mixes to the surface producing wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph at times in the late morning and afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key message(s): - Deep troughing favored through the first half of this period, modifying by the end of the week - Light rain possible midweek Long range ensembles depict a deep trough persisting, with a trough axis (and associated short wave energy aloft) swinging through toward the end of the work week. The upper flow will then become more zonal Friday and Saturday. Moisture will gradually increase mid- week, with a front expected to lift north on Thursday. This will present the greatest chance for any precipitation during the forecast period, with blended guidance showing mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday night and Thursday. A return to drier weather will occur Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds from the northwest. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through mid- week, then rise above normal by late week. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions through the period with breezy conditions on Monday. A secondary surge of cooler and drier air will push through the region overnight and Monday. This will result in winds staying up overnight tonight with a 20-30 knot low level jet and this should prevent any fog or stratus concerns. Winds will pick up by mid morning Monday to around 10 knots with some gusts around 20 knots through the afternoon. The only cloud cover should be some passing thin cirrus clouds and possibly a few cumulus with daytime heating on Monday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry weather generally favored through the extended with low chances for significant restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$