091
FXUS62 KCAE 081909 CCA
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
209 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through the area overnight. Strong
high pressure New England will build south through the Carolinas
into Georgia Saturday through Sunday. Moisture will spread
north Sunday and weak cold air damming will develop. Scattered
light rain or drizzle expected Sunday with cooler temperatures.
Another cold front will move into the area Sunday night into
Monday with additional scattered showers. Drier and seasonable
Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front moves toward the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- A few isolated showers possible overnight into Saturday ahead
  of much drier air.

The stalled front over the area will linger the rest of Friday,
but limited moisture convergence will prevent any notable
precip. Despite cloud cover, high temps will still sneak into
the upper 70`s and low 80`s as most of the area is on the warm
side of this stalled front. As high pressure shifts eastward
across the Ohio Valley, northeast flow will develop and front
will be forced southward by early Saturday. Lower dew points
will surge south into the Pee Dee and Upstate of SC, and a few
showers are possible as this front sinks south thanks to
increases convergence and ample moisture. Fog and stratus is
likely to develop anywhere south of the front by daybreak
Saturday, most likely in the CSRA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
-Dry and seasonable Saturday.
-Cool with scattered light rain and drizzle Sunday. Scattered
showers continue Sunday night.

Saturday and Saturday night...Upper ridge over the area will be
shifting offshore. The Cold front will be in Georgia by
morning. Drier air will be advecting south through the area but
enough low- level moisture around the southern portion of the
CWA, closer to the front for a few clouds in weak warm
advection/onshore flow pattern. Precipitable water expected to
fall below 1 inch in the northern Midlands. Stayed close to the
NBM temperature guidance. Highs mainly in the low 70s. Moisture
flux and weak isentropic lift will develop late Saturday night
focused in east central Ga north into the west Midlands and
Piedmont.

Sunday and Sunday night..The moisture flux will shift north
into the Midlands and expected deepening moisture by later in
the day. Precipitable water increase to near 1.75 inches. The
set up appears to be a weak and progressive wedge as the surface
ridge to the north moves southeast and is positioned east of
the Mid Atlantic. Isentropic lift appears strong enough for
scattered light rain/drizzle with highest pops in the west
Midlands/CSRA and Piedmont. Deep low in the Midwest will move
northeast and low amplitude upper trough will move toward the
area. Models show a mid level short wave moving thru Sunday
night to provide some lift, surface front appears to hang up in
the Carolina Mountains. Scattered showers/maybe even an
isolated thunderstorm, (some weak instability noted) possible
overnight. So went with cooler Mos temperatures, NBM temps
including 25th percentile appear to high for max temperatures
Sunday. So highs in the 60s across the west and north with low
70s southeast. Lows in the mid 50s to low 60s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A few showers associated with frontal passages.
- Temperatures more seasonable late in the week.

There is enough of a push for the front to move south of the
area Monday night and early Tuesday. A few widely scattered
showers as the front moves thru. Drier air Tuesday through mid
week. Ensembles building ridge in the eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures back above normal. Another cold front moves through
late Wednesday night into Thursday with maybe a few showers but
expect mainly dry. Temperatures seasonable behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR and VFR conditions expected through Friday evening.
Lowering cigs and vsby likely Saturday morning.

Low cigs and fog has mixed out across the area, with only some
MVFR cigs in AGS and DNL as of 18z. All sites should go VFR by
20z, and remain VFR through the early Saturday morning. Winds
will remain light the rest of Friday before strengthening out of
the northeast early Saturday. Some drier low level air will
begin to move in early Saturday, and should prevent widespread
fog-stratus Saturday morning. However, AGS and DNL will likely
see significant restrictions again Saturday morning with IFR-
LIFR cigs and vsby; OGB will also see some restrictions should
remain IFR. CAE and CUB may see brief reductions in vsby and
cigs but not forecasting anything more lower than MVFR
currently.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Lingering low moisture will lead to
the potential for early morning restrictions into the weekend
and into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Lingering flooding continues overnight as river levels remain.
The North Fork Edisto in Orangeburg crested just before midnight
last night just shy of 15.5", the highest on record.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$