963
FXUS62 KCAE 240013
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
713 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry, cool but moderating air mass will remain across the
region through the weekend. A cold front with limited moisture
will move through the area Tuesday with perhaps a few isolated
light showers. A stronger cold front will move through the area
Thursday night with scattered to numerous showers. Temperatures
will warm to above normal until Friday as the stronger cold front
pushes offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Areas of frost expected across the area Sunday morning.

With a very dry airmass in place and high pressure centered just
to our south, moderate radiational cooling will help drop temps
down into the low-mid 30`s tonight. Our low level moisture is
bit higher however than we would typically see for an ideal
cooling with dew points in the mid 40`s as of 7pm, despite
PWAT`s down below 0.5". A Frost Advisory is up for the CSRA and
southern Midlands for early Sunday morning; the rest of the
forecast area has already seen a freeze and therefore we are no
longer issuing Frost-Freeze products for those counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry with temperatures continuing to moderate through Monday.

Sunday and Sunday night...Upper level flow becomes more zonal
with short wave ridging over the area. Surface ridge over the
area Sunday morning shifts to the southeast in the afternoon.
The air mass remains quite dry. Low-level flow more westerly
and weak warm advection noted. With weak ridging over the area
continued subsidence. Highs in the mid 60s. Seasonable cool
Sunday night with lows near 40.

Monday...the upper level flow becoming more amplified Monday as
a trough moves east across the Plains toward the Mississippi
Valley. Low-level flow becoming more south-westerly and warm
advection will continue. This trough will push a weak cold front
toward the area Monday night. Modest increase in low-level
moisture with precipitable water near 1.00 inch by Tuesday
morning. A few sprinkles or light showers possible in the
Piedmont toward morning as the front approaches but moisture and
lift appears limited. High temps around 70 and warmer at night
with increasing clouds, lows in the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Warm Tuesday with temperatures near normal mid to late week.
- More unsettled weather towards the end of the forecast period,
  including Thanksgiving.

The ensembles and latest deterministic guidance continue to
show the weak cold front moving through the area Tuesday
morning. The models appears to be a little drier this run and
overall do not expect much in the way of qpf with this first
front. Precipitable water briefly increases to around 1.30
inches in the morning but westerly low level flow will limit
moisture flux. Lift appears weak along front and dowslope
developing quickly. So lowered pops slightly from previous
forecast but can`t rule out a few sprinkles or a brief light
shower in the morning, mainly northwest. Afternoon temperatures
above normal.

Ensembles show zonal flow or short wave ridging over the area
through Wednesday with dry conditions and temperatures slightly
above normal. The ensembles show amplified pattern late in the
week as an anomalously deep upper trough extends from the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley south to the lower Mississippi Valley.
This trough will push a stronger cold front through the area
Thursday night and eventually lead to strong coastal low
pressure in the northeastern U.S. Strong moisture flux ahead of
the front Thanksgiving Day and short wave energy
support numerous showers as the front moves through the area.
Below normal temperatures expected behind the front Friday into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions to continue through the 24 hour TAF period.
Light or calm winds tonight will pick up around 15Z on Sunday
around 5 kts out of the SW. Only possible hazard will be brief
periods of the typical shallow fog at AGS. Confidence is not
high enough to warrant its inclusion in the TAFs. VFR
conditions continue into Sunday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A front will move into the region
mid-week with potential showers and restrictions followed by
gusty conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for SCZ018-025-026-
     030-035-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$