902
FXUS62 KCAE 060002
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
702 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain possible overnight as moisture moves across the surface
wedge. Front moves north on Thursday, with above normal temperatures
for the end of the week and into the weekend with near record
highs possible in some areas. A series of weak disturbances and
weak fronts will promote a chance of showers through much of
the extended.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Increasing clouds.
- Chance for showers this evening into tonight.

Strong high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes and
Mid Atlantic is extending south through the Carolinas. A
frontal boundary has moved into the CSRA and is now nearly
stationary. Flow aloft is zonal with trough in the upper and
central Midwest and cut- off low in the western Gulf. Satellite
showing lingering low clouds from this morning mainly across the
north Midlands and Pee Dee aided by some weak low level warm
advection/isentropic lift. Temperatures just south of the front
are around 70 with mid to upper 50s in the north Midlands. Air
mass is still relatively dry with low precipitable water.
Precipitable water increases this evening to perhaps around 1.30
inch as modest 850mb-700mb moisture flux develops this evening
as weak short wave trough moves northeast from the Gulf coast.
The overall isentropic lift/warm advection not overly strong.
Soundings suggest in-situ wedge like mainly to the north of CAE.
CAM models suggest scattered light rain tonight. QPF amounts
should be low, less than 0.10 inch, 0.05 inches more likely.
Increasing clouds should keep temps up a bit so mid 40s to low
50s appears on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- A return of above normal temperatures and breezy winds.
- Another front moves in for Friday across the north.

As the upper shortwave trough moves off to the east of the forecast
area early Thursday, the bulk of any light rainfall will move
along with it. Some clouds may linger early in the day as the
weakening surface wedge tracks off to the north. This will bring
a warm front across the northern Midlands/Pee Dee through the
day, allowing clouds to break and a return of warmer temperatures
to the entire cwa by the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s
north, to around 80 across the southern counties.  Winds could
be a little on the gusty side as a 20-25 knot low-level jet
moves across the area during the day. A stronger jet sets up
Thursday night into Friday just above the overnight inversion,
but wind gusts may be limited due to that aforementioned
inversion. Lows generally mild, in the upper 50s to around 60.

Friday will see a return of moisture, along with at least a
chance of rain showers as another weak cold front sags back into
the northern forecast area. Highs across southern half of the
cwa expected to be around 80, while the location of the front
across the northern Midlands and Pee Dee will be the determining
factor as to what highs will be there. Right now keeping lower
70s in the remainder of the northern cwa. Rain chance continue
into Friday night, although qpf amounts should be on the light
side. Front will stall out over the central Midlands, with lows
around 50 over the Pee Dee, and the upper 50s in the CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Stalled front remains on Saturday.
- Near record temperatures possible in areas this weekend.

The surface front will not move much through the day Saturday as
zonal flow aloft remains, keeping winds parallel to the front
through the day. This pattern generally keeps scattered showers
across the area Saturday. With more clouds north, another cool
day on tap over the Pee Dee where the front will also have
greater influence. Meanwhile, areas over the southeastern
Midlands and CSRA could see much more sun, allowing them to
approach record values in the lower 80s. Saturday night the
front should begin pushing back to the north as a warm front,
bringing another mild overnight to the region.

Sunday will be warm, with record temperatures possible once
again. The area will be in a warm sector ahead of another
approaching cold front that will be pushing out of the central
Appalachians through the day. Rain chances through the day
appear on the lower side, but can not rule out some isolated
shower development ahead of the front through the day. This cold
front pushes through Sunday night into Monday, and this will
bring an end to the milder temperatures for much of the forecast
area for Monday.

From Monday through Wednesday, a series of re-enforcing cold
fronts will push towards and into the area, before stalling out
somewhere over the southern CSRA. Rain chances will be possible
each day along each front, with the highest rain chances will
be towards the end of the long term when a stronger front should
crosses the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/VFR conditions early tonight. MVFR with some potential for
IFR ceilings overnight into early Thursday morning.

Backdoor front has pushed southeast of the Midlands sites,
settling somewhere in the CSRA west of the Augusta terminals.
Mid-level clouds have pushed into the area as lift passes
through the eastern CONUS ahead of a broad and quick moving
shortwave trough. Clouds and scattered showers are expected to
persist in some form for much of the night, with showers
most likely between now and 09z. Guidance consistently is
showing the backdoor front lifting north through the period as a
warm front. This makes sense given the aforementioned shortwave
helping to push surface high pressure off the NE US coast. As
this does so, an increase in moisture and southwesterly flow
overnight tonight is forecast to result in widespread MVFR and
potentially IFR ceilings to develop along and north of that
boundary. Guidance has trended pretty hard towards this with the
HRRR/RAP now showing it in some form as well. The expectation is
that stratus will be the primary issue, with ceilings as low as
500-800 feet between 06z and 15z (give or take an hour or two).
Guidance is showing a higher likelihood of visibility
restrictions at OGB, so have placed a TEMPO group for that. The
trend towards restrictions makes this forecast a bit higher
confidence than the one 24h ago when guidance generally was
trending away from widespread restrictions. Regardless, the
backdoor front is expected to lift to our north by early
afternoon on Thursday, with winds out of the southwest between
10 and 15 knots. Skies should become a bit clearer thereafter.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periodic showers over the weekend
could cause restrictions at times.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...