350
FXUS62 KCAE 081135
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
635 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of dense fog early this morning. Moisture may linger over
the region through the long term with at least a slight chance
of rain on several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Areas of dense fog this morning.
- Warm and humid today with isolated showers possible.

Low level moisture remains in place across the area which has
resulted in widespread low clouds and fog. While visibilities
early this morning have been somewhat variable, there is enough
pockets of 1/4 mile or less visibilities to support a dense fog
advisory which will continue until 9AM.

A very warm start to the day today (near record high low
temperatures for both Columbia and Augusta), in the upper 60s
to around 70. Water vapor imagery early this morning indicates
that the upper level pattern will become more amplified into
today, strengthening the upper ridge that is centered to the
west of the forecast area, near the Mississippi Valley. This
will lead to developing NW flow over the area which will lead to
PWATs gradually lowering over the course of the day and some
breaking up of the clouds by this afternoon. With upper heights
near the 90th percentile, high temperatures will be in the upper
70s to low 80s with very high dew points for this time of year
leading to a muggy day. Isolated showers will be possible with
the lingering moisture across the area, although forcing will
be weak. A cold front will begin to move into the area tonight
which will lead to cooler temperatures tonight, although still
well above average as cold advection will be limited, in the
mid-50s north to low 60s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry conditions Saturday, then a return of showers Sunday.

A high pressure will wedge into the area on Saturday, bringing
cooler a a brief period of dry weather into the cwa. Temperatures
will be back down toward normal, with highs in the upper 60s
north to the middle 70s south. Cooler conditions will continue
into Saturday night, with lows from around 50 north to the
middle 50s south.

Sunday will see moisture and rain chances begin to increase off
the Atlantic as the front that was south of the area begins
moving back towards the north as a warm front. Rainfall
coverage should still remain mostly isolated to scattered for
much of the day. The cooler wedge temperatures may still hold on
over the upstate of SC/GA, while slightly warmer readings move
into the coastal plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Low chances of rain early in the week. Dry Wednesday, then a
  return of rain by Thursday.

Scattered showers may linger on Monday as the front moves
through. Once the front is through, high pressure builds in for
Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday a stronger cold front will be
moving towards the region, bringing additional rain chances,
along with a upper pattern shift that will help usher in colder
air by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR and LIFR conditions through morning...

Widespread LIFR ceilings at the terminals with varying
visibilities but for the most part visibilities are IFR. With
widespread low level moisture and light winds, improvements will
likely be slow this morning but by late morning, expect
improvement to MVFR then gradual improvement to VFR by mid to
late afternoon as drier air filters into the area with an
approaching cold front. Tonight there is potential for
restrictions, mainly at the Augusta and Orangeburg terminals as
low level moisture remains in place ahead of the front, whereas
drier air moves into the Columbia terminals.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Lingering low moisture will lead to
the potential for early morning restrictions into the weekend
and into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Lingering flooding continues overnight as river levels remain.
The North Fork Edisto in Orangeburg crested just before midnight
last night just shy of 15.5", the highest on record.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$