731
FXUS62 KCAE 091915
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
215 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Extensive flooding continues along the Edisto River between
Orangeburg and Branchville. Strong high pressure New England
will build south through the Carolinas into Georgia into Sunday.
Moisture spreading north Sunday and weak cold air damming is
expected to develop. Scattered light rain or drizzle expected
Sunday with cooler temperatures. Another cold front will move
into the area Sunday night into Monday with additional scattered
showers. Drier and seasonable Tuesday and Wednesday before
another cold front moves toward the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Cooler and drier today as high pressure fills in.

High pressure to our north is sliding eastward, allowing
strengthening northeast flow to develop down the lee side of the
Appalachians. Much drier air surged into South Carolina earlier
this morning, with dew points rapidly dropping 20 degrees or
more, into the low 40`s. Weak cold advection will offset the
clearing skies and keep temperatures fairly stable all with
highs generally in the low 70`s. 850-500mb flow later this
evening and overnight will turn out of the southwest as the
ridge pivots east. This will drive some strong moisture
advection and isentropic lift over top of the surface ridging,
with PWAT`s climbing quickly and wedge conditions developing.
The strongest moisture will remain southwest of our area
through 12z Sunday, so rain chances remain low until later
Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

-Cool with scattered showers possible Sunday and Monday.

Moisture moves back into the region as wedge conditions are
expected to develop. As a result, cool temperatures with periods
of light rain are anticipated on Sunday. With the wedge
conditions expected, did drop highs a few degrees for Sunday
with highs ranging from the low 60s west to low 70s east. An
approaching front Sunday night into Monday keeps chances of rain
around through much of the day Monday. Rainfall amounts between
Sunday and Monday are expected to be on the lighter side, around
a half of an inch or less in general. Temperatures are expected
to rebound some on Monday due to the front pushing out the wedge
conditions as highs top out in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A few showers possible with frontal passage at end of the
  week.
- Temperatures more seasonable late in the week.

Drier air moves back into the region for the long term forecast
period as surface high builds over the area. Temperatures are
forecast to fluctuate some as the week goes on as passing upper
ridges and troughs move over the area. However, highs are
anticipated to be around normal. A slight chance of showers
returns for the end of the week as models indicates another
front is forecast to approach the region.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through Saturday evening. Wedge
conditions likely develop early Sunday with low cigs and vsby.

Following the front earlier today, VFR conditions with mostly
clear skies and gusty northeast winds up to 15-18 knots are
expected the rest of the day. Winds will weaken later this
evening. Moisture will quickly increase late tonight and into
Sunday morning, and steadily lowering cigs are expected as wedge
conditions develop. It does not appear to be a tremendously
strong wedge, at least through the first half of Sunday, so
currently forecasting MVFR cigs and only modest vsby reductions
starting after ~08z in AGS and DNL, and 12z for OGB, CAE, and
CUB. Rain chances remain low until later Sunday morning as
additional moisture moves in and there is no mention in the
TAF`s of precip for the time being.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Lingering low moisture could lead
to the potential for early morning restrictions early next
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The North Fork of the Edisto at Orangeburg remains in moderate
flood, but is forecast to recede into minor flood this afternoon
and continue slowly receding from there. Water flowing south
from the river into the South Fork is also producing extensive
flooding especially near Branchville and areas downstream. The
river at Branchville is anticipated to crest this afternoon
before gradually receding. Slowly improving conditions are then
expected over the next couple of days with any additional
rainfall being minimal.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
HYDROLOGY...