604
FXUS62 KCAE 032331
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
731 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A major warmup continues into the weekend, with near record
temperatures expected through Sunday. A cold front will move
slowly through the area late Sunday through Monday with
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler temperatures
expected behind the front next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Unseasonably warm through tonight.

Upper level ridge continues to build over the region. At the
surface, an area of high pressure remains off to our east and a
nearly stationary front continues to be draped across the Ohio
River Valley southward into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Winds across the area will begin to diminish with sunset.
Another night of increasing clouds is expected as moisture
remains high across the area. Overnight temps are forecast to
remain on the warm side (near 70) once again. Isolated spots
of fog can`t be ruled out either due to the moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Highly anomalous warmth continues through Saturday, with near
  daily record temps.

Friday and Friday night...Anomalously strong mid/upper level
ridge centered offshore will build into the area Friday. Cut-off
low out in the Desert Southwest. Surface Bermuda ridge
extending into the area. Deeper moisture confined to the midwest
into the Ohio Valley along a stalled frontal boundary and low
pressure in the Mid Mississippi Valley. Low- level warm
advection through the day. Precipitable water appears to be
high...near 180% of normal. But moisture appears confined to
around 850mb. Model soundings suggest strong mid level capping.
Air mass moderately unstable. CAMS suggest a few isolated
showers/thunderstorms possible, but given strong capping will
keep pops relatively low through the day. After some morning
clouds again, temperatures will rise quickly in warm advection
pattern. Max temperature forecast a little above the NBM mean
due to cool bias given strength of the 500 mb ridge, heights
well above the 99th percentile in the NAEFS. So, highs near 90
on track. Overnight low temperatures well above normal in the
low to mid 60s.

Saturday and Saturday night...Upper level ridge continues over
the southeast but 500mb heights appear a little lower. Moisture
appears to decrease a bit through the day. Mid level capping
appears strong. Will continue the dry forecast and temperatures
near record highs, near 90 and lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

-Showers and thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday as a
 front moves into the area.
-A few strong storms possible.
-Locally heavy rain possible.
- Much cooler temps likely starting Monday and lasting throughout
  next week.

The upper low out west will begin to lift northeast into the
Plains and the upper ridge over the Southeastern US will shift
to the southeast. This will allow increasing moisture into the
area in southwest flow aloft. The surface cold front will be
moving into the Deep South Sunday. The GFS has been faster than
other guidance but is trending slower moving the front toward
the area Sunday. The ECMWF ensemble along it AIFS remain the
slower solutions. Noticed the NBM continues to slow things down.
So Sunday temperatures should be quite warm, near record heat
again but lowered pops a bit. Widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms move in Sunday night as moisture advection
increases and the front moves into the area. Some potential for
locally heavy rain with slow moving front and precipitable water
probability > 1.5 inches near 80 % in the ensembles...260% of
normal for this time of year. Total qpf in the 1 to 2 inch range
on average. WPC has area in marginal flash flood risk. The
front may move slowly through the area Monday into Monday
afternoon, and NBM pops have gone up through the day. Frontal
passage may be delayed until Monday evening. Strong high
pressure building in from the northwest behind the front through
mid week. Much cooler temperatures expected through mid week.
Strong radiational cooling possible Wednesday morning with lows
in the 30s as indicated by NBM. Highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR ceilings this afternoon with MVFR/IFR ceilings possible
late tonight.

Rinse and repeat forecast for tonight. Cumulus is already
beginning to wane across the area as daytime heating slows down.
We should see skies clear again before stratus takes over
tonight. The setup is fairly similar to the one yesterday, so a
persistence forecast is in there. We are expecting MVFR cigs to
overspread the TAF sites between 03z and 07z, with periodic IFR
cigs at times between 09z and 13z. Cigs will likely remain in
place until a similar time that they did today - breaking up
around 15z-17z tomorrow. Scattered to broken VFR cumulus is the
expected through the afternoon. Southerly winds will be
persistent through the period but aren`t expected to be as gusty
as they were this afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Precipitation remains unlikely
through Saturday before the next rain chance moves in Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$