Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
909 FXUS62 KCAE 090008 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 808 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Below normal temperatures expected to continue through the weekend but are expected to return to normal for the long term. Isolated to widely scattered showers or storms are possible through Saturday but rain chances ramp up Sunday and into early next week as deeper moisture returns to the Southeast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): - Wedge conditions continue overnight We did manage to get some breaks in the clouds this afternoon, but overcast skies should surge back in overnight as the wedge holds strong. Modest but consistent northeasterly flow will continue to support low level cool advection overnight, so temps are expected to drop below normal again. The few showers that were able to get a little depth this afternoon should die out fairly quickly after sunset as any meager instability that was able to develop disappears with the loss of the sun. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Below-normal temperatures continue. - Isolated to scattered showers/storms, mainly east. Onshore low-level flow develops late Saturday as an offshore low lifts north. This will likely lead to warm, moist advection over the forecast area with PWAT values back above 2 inches along the coast by the end of the short term. Weak surface ridging lingering over the FA and warm advection over top of it will lead to mostly cloudy skies and surely keep temperatures below normal. Although the loss of NE flow could allow for some erosion of the low clouds during the afternoon and therefore warmer daytime temps than the previous day. Highs are expected to be in the 80s. Moisture convergence is forecast, leading to showers developing in the afternoon with highest coverage along the coast. CAMs focus convection in this area solely but it seems that there will still be at least a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm for much of the forecast area as well. Continued moisture advection and a weak upper shortwave may allow for convection to linger overnight. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Message(s): - Temperatures gradually warm through the first half of next week. - Numerous showers/storms expected late Sunday and early next week. Global model ensembles generally favor a transition from weak troughing over the region to a strengthening ridge in the long term. The net result is for a gradual return to typical midsummer weather by the end of the long term with temperature warming back up to near normal. As the low offshore lifts away from the region, a strong onshore flow component develops with deep moisture surging into the Southeast. This pattern supports a higher chance for PoPs late this weekend and into early next week. As upper level ridging builds over the area next week and moisture advection weakens, we should return back to a more normal convective pattern of scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR to begin the TAF period with restrictions developing just before dawn. VFR conditions have developed at all terminals. Clouds have scattered out but with high pressure ridging over the area and moisture expected to surge back in overnight, do expect developing mostly MVFR ceilings at all terminals just before dawn. OGB has the highest probability of IFR ceilings so have included a TEMPO group there but confidence remains too low at the rest of the terminals. Slow improvement possible into Saturday afternoon but guidance has consistently brought VFR conditions in too quickly each day over the past several days so restrictions may linger a bit longer. Increasing potential for afternoon and evening showers and storms Saturday afternoon, especially at OGB but have left this out of the TAF for now with it being the last period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Flight restrictions are possible each day with chances for showers expected throughout the weekend into next week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$