988
FXUS62 KCAE 221903
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
203 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A drier and colder airmass continues to settle into the region.
Gusty winds this afternoon begin to diminish this evening as
high pressure begins to move into the area. The dry weather
continues through weekend, with slowly rebounding temperatures
across the area. Cooler temperatures and chances for rain return
toward the second half of the week due to an approaching system
from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Continued dry and cool.

Deep upper low and associated trough over the eastern seaboard,
along with a surface low in the Northeast, continue to be the
main driver of the sensible weather across the forecast area
this afternoon and into tonight. A shortwave moving across the
Southeast has brought some scattered cloud cover along with
another surge of gusty winds. Observations have indicated that
these gusts have generally been 25 mph or less; however, a few
gusts between 25 and 30 mph have been noted here and there. As
the upper trough and surface low begin to drift eastward this
afternoon and tonight, winds are expected to gradually diminish.
After sunset and winds decouple from the surface, wind gusts are
expected to end, but winds are forecast to stay elevated
overnight. A low-level jet is also expected to develop
overnight, so don`t think any frost will form with the possible
exception of a few sheltered locations seeing some frost.
With lakes remaining warm, some of the winds in the low-level
jet could mix down overnight, but have decided against another
Lake Wind Advisory for now as guidance keeps wind gusts lower
than threshold values. Another night of chilly temperatures is
in store, but don`t think many, if any, locations will drop to
the freezing mark tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Moderating afternoon high temps over the weekend.
- Frost possible early Sunday morning.

Upper level trough axis will be offshore by Saturday morning
with northwest flow aloft across the area becoming zonal Sunday.
Upper heights rise over the weekend and combined with strong
subsidence and downslope flow, expect afternoon temperatures to
be closer to seasonal norms. So highs near 60 Saturday and mid
to upper 60s Sunday. At the surface , a modified air mass from
the northwest U.S. will settle over the area. With a dry air
mass in place and light/near calm winds Saturday night,
potential for strong radiational cooling conditions. NBM
guidance indicates a high probability of temperatures in the low
to mid 30s. So lowered temps from previous forecast and expect
some freezing conditions especially in outlying and sheltered
areas. The ridge shifts to the southeast Sunday night so temps a
little warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Warmer early next week.
- More unsettled weather towards the end of the forecast period.

Ensembles indicate an upper trough over the upper Midwest will
take on a negative tilt as it moves toward the Great Lakes. This
trough will drive a cold front toward the region late Monday
night. The front appears to move through the region Tuesday
afternoon. Moisture is expected to be limited ahead of the
front. The NBM has low pops, but the deterministic GFS and ECMWF
pops are increasing. Kept a dry forecast with ensemble qpf
remaining quite low although a few sprinkles seems possible.
Ensemble members indicate that the more substantial moisture
increase will occur towards the end of the period with stronger
forcing across the forecast area associated with a frontal
boundary and low pressure in the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. Chance of rain for Thanksgiving day. Temperatures
above normal early in the week then near normal for the
Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions for the entire period.

Gusty west northwest winds continue this afternoon through about
22z-00z before diminishing overnight. West of 5-8 kts continue
overnight and into tomorrow, with a few gusts possible. Some
passing scattered 6kt cumulus clouds are passing through the
region at this hour. Once those pass the terminals, clear skies
are expected to return.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation impacts
expected into the first part of next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...