923
FXUS62 KCAE 240615
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
115 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather continues into mid-week with a chance for showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. A
very dry and much colder air mass moves in behind the front for
the remainder of Thanksgiving week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Dry weather continues with above normal temperatures

As a surface high drifts offshore and easterly, onshore flow
develops we will see stratus and fog form in the Lowcountry and
advect into the southern Midlands and CSRA. Conditions will
improve through the early morning as fog and stratus lift.

With dry high pressure at the surface and ridging overhead the
weather will remain quiet with no rain through the near term.
Forecast highs will range from the upper 60s to mid-70s. Shallow
moisture continues to increase overnight keeping lows in the
mid-40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Scattered showers expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a front
  moves through the region.

The cutoff low in the southwestern CONUS will eject across the
central US, driving a strong low pressure development into the Great
Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday. This ejecting low will amplify the
pattern with deep ridging developing for our area ahead of the
associated surface front. Broad southwesterly flow Tuesday will
steadily increase PWAT`s and isentropic lift over the area and with
temps pushing into the mid-upper 70`s, some scattered showers are
expected. The strongest height falls, upslope flow, and isentropic
lift however will pull northwest of our area in the mountains and
Upstate. So total precip is expected to be light Tuesday with
guidance now fairly consistent in showing a general 0.1"-0.25"; some
very weak instability will develop in the afternoon so a couple
light thunderstorms are possible and could locally increase rain
totals, especially in the western Midlands. As we move into
Wednesday, the surface front will be approaching the area and a
swath of strongest moisture advection will push through with PWAT`s
over 1.25"; some a period of elevated shower activity is likely
Wednesday morning but still QPF totals less than 0.5" are
expected. Precip chances then steadily decrease throughout
Wednesday into the evening as the surface front pushes through,
bringing notable dry advection into Thanksgiving.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- A cold and extremely dry airmass will push into the region
  Thursday through Saturday.

Behind the front from Wednesday, an arctic airmass will dive down
into region with strong northwesterly flow and well below average
temps and dew points filling in. This will effectively arrive in two
fronts, the initial on Thursday and a reinforcing front Friday.
NAEFS and EC EFI show this airmass well with 5th percentile or
lower for PWAT`s, temps, and heights Thursday through Saturday.
This will equate to high and low temps 10-15 degrees below
average along with dew points falling to the lowest of the
autumn so far. Ridging will build back in and temps start to
moderate by late next weekend ahead of the next rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions likely at OGB and AGS this morning.

Surface high pressure will shift offshore leading to stratus
and fog developing near the coast and advecting into the
southern Midlands and CSRA early this morning. Expect periods of
MVFR or IFR ceilings and vsbys at OGB and AGS. DNL may also
experience restrictions but confidence is lower due to the
siting of the terminal. Restrictions will improve after 12Z with
light, east winds from 5 to 7 knots through the afternoon
becoming calm around sunset.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance of widespread
restrictions will be late Tuesday into early Thursday morning
as deep moisture returns to the area ahead of a front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$