159
FXUS62 KCAE 221403
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
903 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A drier and colder airmass will settle across the region into
the weekend. Gusty winds will continue again today, then
diminish tonight. Dry weather continues this weekend, with
slowly rebounding temperatures across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Continued dry and cool.

9 AM Update: Temperatures have risen to the upper 30s to mid 40s
across the region, so the Freeze Warning has been allowed to
expire. Winds over the lakes have also diminished below Lake
Wind Advisory thresholds, so the Lake Wind Advisory has also
been allowed to expire.

The morning inversion is beginning to break, which will allow winds
aloft to mix down towards the surface. As a result, winds are
beginning to increase and wind gusts are expected to pick up
through the day. The pressure gradient is slightly weaker
today, and both sustained winds and wind gusts are expected to
remain below Lake Wind Advisory (LWA) criteria for the rest of
the day. Cold advection is expected to be plentiful through the
day. Even with a good amount of sunshine on tap, along with a
weak downsloping wind component, temperatures this afternoon
only rise into the low to middle 50s. With the winds through
the day, it will remain chilly, so a good coat will be
beneficial at times.

Tonight: Winds decouple after sunset, eliminating any remaining
wind gusts. Winds aloft will still be stronger, 20-30 knots,
and with the warmer lake temperatures, can not rule out the
need for another LWA later tonight. Confidence not as high
though, and will hold off on any issuance at this time. Airmass
will continue to be very dry. Good radiational cooling will
bring overnight lows into the middle 30s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Temperatures warming to closer to average through the
  weekend.
- Frost possible early Sunday morning.

Upper level trough axis will be offshore by Saturday morning and
while 500mb heights will generally be below average, rising
heights over the course of the day will bring temperatures
a bit closer to normal, in the low 60s. High pressure ridging
into the forecast area from the west leading to lighter winds
and clear skies. The high will continue to shift over the
southeastern US, centered just to the south of the area Saturday
night which will setup fairly favorable radiational cooling with
forecast soundings indicating a 15 knot low level jet over the
area. As a result, frost will be possible by early Sunday
morning with lows, generally in the mid-30s.

Zonal flow aloft develops across the area Sunday so after a cold
start to the day, temperatures will rise to around average with
highs in the mid-60s. Dry weather continues with a reinforcing
shot of deep layer dry air with high probability of PWATs
remain below a half inch (over 80 percent of LREF members). Lows
a bit more mild as well, in the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Warmer early next week.
- More unsettled weather towards the end of the forecast period.

Temperatures continue to rise into early next week as ensemble
means indicate strengthening ridging over the area with a cold
front approaching the area and warm advection further pushing
temperatures above average with blended guidance indicating
highs in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday. A bit more consistency
in the timing of the frontal passage during the day Tuesday,
although the exact timing will determine how warm much of the
area will get Tuesday. Front will be fairly progressive through
the area and while blended guidance still keeps rain chances
below slight chance, a brief shower or sprinkle will be possible
associated with the front Tuesday. Ensemble members indicate
that the more substantial moisture increase will occur towards
the end of the period with stronger forcing across the forecast
area.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions for the entire period.

Dry air remains, with clear skies forecast through the period.
Strong low-level jet will bring borderline llws conditions through
this morning, then again tonight. Have included llws for this
morning through 14z when the inversion breaks and better mixing
takes hold. Winds through the day increase to around 15 knots,
with gusts over 25 knots. The jet may not be as strong tonight,
so may not hit llws criteria, thus have left out of all tafs for
now.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation impacts
expected through the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$