


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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522 FXUS62 KCAE 070113 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 913 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures rebound to above normal levels to begin the week with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Some decrease in high temperatures is possible later in the week as weak upper troughing moves in from the west and rain chances increase ever so slightly. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): - TD Chantal is well north of the area with no impacts expected. What is left of TD Chantal continues to progress northward tonight and is near the NC/VA border. As a result, a relaxing of the pressure gradient has led to light and variable winds with some drier air wrapping into the area from the west. Temperatures seasonable overnight, in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - A return of the heat to start off the week. - Isolated or scattered afternoon showers/storms possible. The beginning of the new week should feature hot temperatures with heat indices around 100-105 degrees. This is in response to the upper ridge building over the eastern CONUS while the Bermuda high remains anchored offshore. We won`t see much decrease in moisture levels even with Chantal departing the region, with PW values expected to remain somewhat seasonal around 105-120% of normal. Guidance will continue to be monitored for higher heat index values and the potential need for heat headlines early this week. With moisture remaining in place and south to southwest flow through much of the column, a return to more typical afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms is to be expected in response to the strong daytime heating. Shear and therefore storm organization will be limited, keeping the threat for widespread severe weather low. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Message(s): - A slight break in the heat from mid-week onward. - Slightly better chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected. Ensembles suggest weakening of the upper trough and continuation of southwest flow aloft across the region. A few weak shortwaves are progged to move through the mid level flow as well, providing better support for convection in the presence of continued deep moisture (PW values >1.9"). At the surface, the region may see the return of lee-side troughing east of the Appalachians, leading to slightly higher rainfall chances each afternoon and evening. Additionally, we`ll watch for any potential boundary collisions as a result of the seabreeze working inland. Height decreases will allow afternoon temperatures to decrease slightly into the low to mid 90s, which should also help heat indices retreat from widespread triple digits. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Generally VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Remnants of Chantal continues to lift northward away from the region as most of the cloud cover over the region has dissipated with only some passing higher clouds around this evening. Winds have also diminished to light and variable and should remain so overnight. Not expecting any fog/stratus concerns. Winds should pick up to around 5 to 8 knots from the southwest by 15z. Generally dry conditions expected on Monday with possible isolated showers around but not enough to include in forecast. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There is the possibility of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms over the coming week with the potential for periodic restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$