


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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822 FXUS62 KCAE 181716 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 116 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions remain in place through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Daily showers and thunderstorms are possible, with increased convective coverage possible Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures slowly return to normal and humidity decreases by Tuesday and into the later part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Hot and humid this afternoon with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible. Upper ridging continues to build into the forecast area this afternoon allowing temperatures to climb into the 90s. Heat indices at this hour range from the upper 90s to lower 100s and are below advisory criteria at this time. Will monitor closely to ensure this trend holds through peak heating. Convection has once again outperformed model guidance this afternoon with radar imagery showing scattered showers developing across much of the Midlands. While no lightning has been detected yet, a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out given the ample moisture and high CAPE values across the region, especially closer to the coast. Any showers and thunderstorms that do develop, should quickly diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures should peak in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon, falling into the mid to upper 70s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): -Hot and humid conditions increase with heat indices of 100F-108F likely each day. -Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected during the afternoon periods this weekend. The forecast for the weekend remains on track as summertime is in full swing. The strong upper high off the Atlantic coast continues to churn and retrograde westward through Sunday night. At the surface, high pressure to the south keeps moisture transport off to the north on Saturday, but eventually sags southward in the CWA on Sunday. Guidance shows an increase in PWATs by Saturday night with upticks through the end of the short term. Values of 2.0-2.3 inches are likely, increasing the dewpoints and raising the heat index (HI) through the weekend. Additionally, as height rises occur with the slow building ridge, daytime temperatures approach triple digits. Therefore, confidence is increasing for HI values of 100-106 to be met at several locations within the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area. There are also pockets of 108-109 HI, but coverage is spotty. At this time, given the narrow coverage of these HI values, will hold off on any Heat Advisory. Along with the hot and humid conditions, subsidence aloft and the location of the high pressure reduces shower and thunderstorm chances for Saturday to slight chance (15-30%), with the Pee Dee and Charlotte Metro areas having the better chances. By Sunday, increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms is possible as the CWA becomes wedged between high pressure to the north and south, allowing for more westerly flow to filter in. Given the light flow aloft and modest instability at this surface, this should lead to more scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (25-40%) on Sunday across the entire area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key message(s): -Hot and humid conditions persist into early next week with some relief after Tuesday. -Shower and thunderstorm activity increases through Tuesday before becoming more typical for summertime. By Monday, the pattern remains on the hot and humid track. An amplifying ridge out west migrates eastward, increasing heights across the southeast. Monday looks to be under the influence of the high pressure, providing an increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms as embedded shortwaves riding along the eastern edge of the high slide across the area. There is still some uncertainty as to where the ridge axis sets up and how far east the eastern edge extends, but either way, scattered to widespread convective chances are there for Monday and into Tuesday. By midweek, a weak trough off the East Coast slowly moves out, allowing for another area of high pressure at the surface to build into the northeast. Guidance at this time shows a decrease in moisture advection as NE surface flow could filter in drier air. This would be a mild relief to the hot and humid conditions and bring temperatures down to more normal values for July through the end of the extended period. With the drier air from the northeast and the ridge axis moving over the southeast, subsidence aloft looks to reduce the daily diurnally driven convection into the slight chance range (15-35%) Wednesday through the end of the forecast, which is more typical for the area during this time. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Brief Restrictions from Scattered Showers Possible this Afternoon.... SCT cumulus clouds have continued to develop over the last few hours with radar now showing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the region. Brief restrictions are possible at any terminal this afternoon should a shower or thunderstorm pass over. Will add a PROB30 to CAE/CUB/OGB for thunderstorm potential during the next few hours based on recent satellite and radar trends. Any convective activity should diminish around 00Z with light winds and passing high clouds expected tonight. The potential for low clouds and fog near daybreak appears low at this time. Renewed shower activity is possible near the end of the current TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Seasonal restrictions continue with isolated convection and patchy early morning fog/stratus possible through Sunday. Rain chances increase early next week ahead of an approaching surface boundary. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$