974
FXUS62 KCAE 061210
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
810 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe weather potential increases over the weekend as an
active weather pattern develops. Conditions are favorable for
several rounds of thunderstorms to push through the Southeast
into early next week. This active weather pattern will likely
persist through much of the long term with a high chance to
likely PoPs most days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms late afternoon into early
  evening possible over the western Midlands and Pee Dee.

Satellite imagery showing some areas of stratus across the
forecast area this morning but this should mix out by mid
morning as westerly winds pick up by 15z. Atmospheric moisture
is a bit lower today with PWATs around 1.5-1.6 inches and some
weak shortwave ridging will traverse the forecast area in
generally westerly mid level flow. Forecast soundings show an
inversion around 700mb that will act as a capping inversion and
combined with a lack of forcing think the day will be mostly dry
with only an isolated shower or storm possibly focused across
the southern Midlands or CSRA. However, some increased chances
of rain expected this evening across the western Midlands as
several of the hi-res cams show a cluster of convection
approaching around 00z but decaying quickly into the evening
with the loss of heating. Temperatures are expected to be warmer
today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Tonight some
lingering convective debris clouds and elevated dewpoints should
limit radiational cooling and lows expected to be in the upper
60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Low confidence, but potentially high ceiling, for severe
thunderstorms on Saturday.

- More widespread showers-storms likely Sunday but severe potential
less certain.

A series of short waves and the eventual lifting long wave trough
will continue the active pattern through the short term period.
Early Saturday, guidance is pretty consistent in pushing a short
wave aloft with the remnants of an MCS. Given the poor diurnal
timing, not expecting high PoP`s or t-storm chances Saturday
morning, but subsidence behind the morning shortwave could play a
role in later convection. The primary shortwave of concern rounds
the ridge and will likely develop a MCS across TN-MS-AL area early
Saturday afternoon, before propagating east-southeast towards our
area. Confidence is high in the preceding environment with moisture
and instability robust in the warm sector ahead of this MCS; PWAT`s
1.75-2.0" and ML CAPE jumping over 2000 J/kg by mid-afternoon based
on the HREF and LREF. Wind shear is modest however through 500mb,
but strong enough flow aloft will be sufficient to support organized
linear convection. While the environment is very likely supportive
of an organized wind threat, actually getting an MCS to impact our
area is less certain. Currently, guidance is all over the place with
no consistent convective mode or timing for MCS development.
Typically guidance does struggle with MCS growth and propagation in
these ring of fire setups, so it is not terribly surprising to
see a lack of consensus. The most consistent and probable
solution is an MCS develops in the MS-AL-TN area, then
propagates southeast along the strongest instability gradient.
So overall, the wind threat looks a bit higher in the CSRA,
eastern GA, and southern Midlands, but confidence is somewhat
low and the environment will be highly favorable everywhere. As
such, the Slight Risk continues for the entire forecast area on
Saturday; if HREF guidance becomes more consistent in convective
development and mode, a further upgrade is is possible.

On Sunday, the primary trough will dig southeast and position us
under deep southwesterly flow with deep persistent moisture still in
place. Modest height falls will continue as the trough digs and
provide decent mid-level lapse rates to help destabilize, but
widespread cloud cover and morning convection will limit that to
some extent. But heating and strengthening southwest flow should
still allow ML CAPE to climb above 1500 J/kg by the afternoon with
roughly 25-30 knots of 0-6km shear. But compared to Saturday, the
level of destabilization is a bit less confident. More
confident however is coverage of convection, with widespread
showers- storms expected. Due to the solid environmental setup
and expected widespread coverage, a Slight Risk is in place
again on Sunday.

So overall, Saturday is a lower confidence but a high ceiling
potential with an organized wind threat from an MCS. Sunday is
higher confidence but lower ceiling with less organized but more
widespread messy strong convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Additional strong thunderstorm activity possible Monday with
active summer weather expected beyond for the rest of next week.

The primary trough aloft will occlude Monday and continue to
position our area under southwesterly flow with strong moisture
flux. Convection again likely on Monday as a result of decent
instability, high PWAT`s, and sufficient synoptic forcing with
some strong thunderstorms possible. The trough will shift east
for Tuesday, but we will likely remain under southwesterly flow
and keep PWAT`s elevated another day. So, convection is again
likely Tuesday. Eventually the trough will push east enough to
let somewhat drier air into the area along with less notable
synoptic forcing. But it is June and true fronts-drier airmasses
struggle tremendously to clear our area. NAEFS and EC EFI
summarize the long term period well, with below average heights
and above average moisture Monday- Tuesday followed by a return
to more typical summer weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period at this time.

Any lingering stratus has quickly moved out of the terminals and
mostly clear skies are now seen outside of a few high clouds
toward the upstate of SC as light winds out of the west take
over, increasing to 5-8 kts this afternoon. Some SCT cumulus are
expected to develop this afternoon with some passing high clouds
as well, but restrictions are not anticipated. More high clouds
move in for this evening and to the end of the period as
scattered convection may approach mainly CAE/CUB around 00z, but
model guidance largely has this dissipating before reaching the
terminals at this time. Cannot rule out an isolated shower/storm
this afternoon as well, but confidence in this is low.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture remains in place over the
area through much of the period, leading to potential early
morning restrictions and diurnal convection each day and daily
thunderstorms over the weekend may also bring restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$