Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
939 FXUS62 KCAE 071817 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 217 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Drier air is likely for today and tomorrow, leading to lower dew points and limiting precipitation chances to the CSRA. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Slightly above average temperatures with chances for afternoon storms the second half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1. Slightly above average temperatures with chances for afternoon storms the second half of the week. A cold front has slipped south of the area ushering in drier air with dew points in the 60s across the area and PWATs expected to continue to fall through the day with northeasterly flow. Broad troughing in place will lead to a cooler afternoon today, although with the trough axis already to the east continuing to push away from the area, expect relatively quick recovery with high pressure offshore and strengthening ridging aloft over the central CONUS moving back into the area. While ensemble guidance does not indicate this ridge will be nearly as strong as last week, expect a warming trend most notable for the second half of the week and into the weekend with blended guidance favoring temperatures in the low to mid 90s, around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This coupled with increasing low level moisture will likely push heat indices up towards the triple digits once again. Moisture remains limited today and tomorrow with forecast soundings indicating a relatively strong warm nose aloft, keeping much of the area capped, preventing showers and storms from developing over much of the area. While an isolated shower or storm will be possible in the southernmost portions of the forecast area, generally do not expect a significant moisture increase until Wednesday when surface high pressure moves offshore and weak low pressure along the Gulf is picked up by the developing southwesterly flow. This will lead to some diurnal storm chances Wednesday and Thursday, favoring the southern forecast area but it is not until a weak front approaches from the northwest lead to higher precip chances Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mostly VFR today as drier air filters in behind a frontal boundary to our south. Satellite imagery shows BKN to SCT cumulus with bases around 3-5 kft across much of the area. Isolated pop-up showers are seen to our south and west, but confidence remains too low to mention any impacts at our CSRA terminals. Northeasterly to easterly winds continue around 10 kt, with occasional gusts near 15 kt. Given the noticeably drier air and stronger winds just above the surface, fog or low stratus is not anticipated, with mostly clear skies expected aside from some passing high cirrus tonight. Tuesday is expected to be fairly similar to today, with continued dry conditions. Winds will generally be from the northeast to east at 7-10 kt with low end gusts near 15 kt. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry to start the week before diurnal storm chances return in the later part of the week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...96 AVIATION...ND