303
FXUS62 KCAE 071735
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
135 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening as a front works through the forecast area. Dry weather
is expected during the mid-week period with near to below
normal temperatures through the weekend. Next rain chance comes
late Thursday and into Friday as a cold front moves through the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Showers and thunderstorms continue through this evening
- Storms this afternoon may produce heavy rainfall and strong winds

Surface cold front continues to push through GA early this
afternoon. Deep southwesterly flow ahead of this front brings
plenty of moisture northward into the forecast area. Pwat values
between 1.5 to 1.8 inches remain this afternoon, and this should
bring a risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding in any heavier
activity, especially with any training cells. Instability is
still somewhat weak, but there remains a lot of shear in the
levels, so a severe threat can not be ruled out within a high
shear/low cape environment, especially over the southern and
eastern counties into this evening. Winds could be breezy at
times outside of thunderstorms and gusts may briefly approach
Lake Wind Advisory criteria. With rain ongoing across the
western FA, a large variance in daytime temperatures is
expected. Forecast highs will range from the lower 70s
north/west, to the lower to mid 80s in the eastern Midlands due
to thinner clouds and some sunshine in the afternoon.

Tonight: The cold front will be moving into and out of the
eastern counties early this evening. Behind the front, rain
chances will quickly decline. Low clouds will linger through
early Tuesday morning. Overnight lows will be cooler than
previous few night, with temperatures ranging from the lower to
mid 40s north and west and the mid to upper 40s to around 50
degrees elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry air and cooler conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Patchy frost possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
  mainly for the Northern Midlands.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Surface high pressure builds
southeast out of Illinois ending up over Virginia by daybreak
Wednesday. PWATs will fall below a half inch on Tuesday as a
cooler and drier air mass moves in from the northwest. Clear skies
will become mostly sunny in the afternoon as a reinforcing cold
front moves through the forecast area but as mentioned it will
be a dry frontal passage. Temperatures are expected to be below
normal with forecast highs in the lower to mid 60s north and
upper 60s south. Clear skies and initially light winds will
promote radiational cooling at night but the combination of a
strong low-level jet and dry conditions should limit the
development of frost to only sheltered locations and a few
spots across the Northern Midlands. Temperatures at daybreak
should range from the mid to upper 30s north to the lower to mid
40s south.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night: Surface high passes east on
Wednesday allowing winds to shift from northeast to east and
eventually southeast by daybreak Thursday. A sunny, cool, and
dry day is expected with below normal temperatures. Readings on
at night should be warmer than Tuesday Night as clouds
associated with an approaching cold front approaches from the
north and west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry conditions expected through Thursday with a front entering
  overnight and into Friday, bringing increased rain chances.

- Temperatures through the weekend continue to look to be near
  to below normal.

The next storm system will be moving through the Great Lakes on
Thursday, dragging another cold front through our forecast area.
Much of the region should remain dry until Thursday Night into
Friday when isolated to scattered showers will be possible. The
dry weather returns for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures
remain near to below normal through the long term, with a
possible warming trend at the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front still west of all terminals early this afternoon, but
will continue slowly tracking into and eventually east of all
terminals through early this evening. A good amount of showers
and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the region, in
addition to ceilings lowering from vfr into mvfr conditions as
the rain moves into each taf site. Ceilings remaining mvfr
through around 07z, then with drier air moving in behind the
cold front, clouds finally scatter out and vfr conditions
return. Winds will be mostly south to southwesterly this
afternoon, then turning more westerly behind the front tonight.
Some gusts over 25 knots will remain possible this afternoon,
then diminishing winds towards midnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread restrictions unlikely
through Thursday. As deeper moisture advects into the region
late this week, the chance of rain and morning restrictions
returns to the outlook.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-Rises on the area rivers expected through midweek.

WPC indicates a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall across the
region through early evening. Rainfall amounts across the wrn
half of North Carolina and into nrn/cntrl South Carolina look to
range from 1 to 2 inches with some locally higher amounts.
Although much of the area is in some category of drought and
streamflows are Below Normal to Much Below Normal across the
headwaters of the area rivers, river ensembles indicate a good
response in flows from the expected rainfall. The latest run of
the NAEFS is the most aggressive with rainfall and stream rises.
There is about a 10 to 50 percent chance that flows could rise
to near Action Stages along Pee Dee and Saluda River basins.

At this time, there are no rivers forecasted to reach Action or
Flood Stage.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$