544
FXUS62 KCAE 200040
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
840 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A retreating upper ridge breaks down on Wednesday and allows Major
Hurricane Erin to pass offshore of the United States. More typical
rain chances should return by the end of week with cooling
temperatures due to developing upper troughing. Cold front late in
the weekend will usher drier in for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Surface ridging and wedge-like conditions will continue
  overnight.

The combination of high pressure across New England and Erin
offshore to the southeast will continue generally northeast
flow below 500mb into the area. Consequent surface ridging will
remain in place and the wedge-like conditions with some lowering
stratus into Wednesday morning. Some showers are still possible
along the periphery of the surface ridging through about
midnight, but after that we should remain dry with low temps
falling into the low 70`s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Tropical Cyclone Erin will remain offshore with no direct
  impacts expected
- Drier with increased northeasterly winds developing on Wednesday

Erin moves off the southeastern coast on Wednesday.  It will however
remain well east of the SC coastline and will have no direct impact
to our weather on Wednesday.  As Erin moves northward, there should
be a good amount of subsidence across our region, and this should
help to keep much of the area on the dry side. There could be some
sea-breeze convection during the afternoon, but this should not move
far enough inland to bring any rain to our eastern counties. Winds
becoming more northeasterly on the backside of the tropical system
through the day.  Pressure gradient may tighten enough to bring some
gusty winds through the day, but still expected to remain below 20
mph. Afternoon highs should be close to normal, with highs in the
lower 90s on Wednesday.  Continued dry overnight as Erin moves
closer to the outer banks of NC through the night.  Winds remaining
northerly overnight, but with the pressure gradient still tight
enough, winds will remain mostly between 5-10 mph.  Overnight lows
in the lower 70s with good mixing going on.

Thursday, Erin will continue to track further away from the area,
allowing the region to return to more of a summer pattern.  Moisture
may increase again through the day.  With weak upper troughing over
the area pushing a surface boundary towards the are through the day,
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will once again
develop across the region. The deeper moisture should allow for a
heavier rainfall potential, and a marginal risk of excessive rain is
still indicated by WPC. Highs still near normal with readings in the
lower 90s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Cooling trend expected Friday into Saturday with upper level
  troughing then gradual warming trend returns Sunday into
  Monday

- Shower and Thunderstorm Chances increase into the Weekend

- Cold front Sunday will bring drier and slightly cooler air for
  next week

Weak upper trough pattern will continue on Friday and Saturday, then
a deepening upper trough will begin approaching from the northwest
Sunday into early next week.  That digging trough could bring some
slightly cooler and drier air towards the region by the middle of
next week.  Until then, the surface front will have pushed through
by Friday, stalling out south of the cwa.  Expecting plenty of
clouds and moisture to reside across the forecast area north of this
front both Friday and Saturday, keeping the chance for rainfall on
the higher side, and the temperatures slightly cooler than normal.
Pwat still around 2 inches remaining, and this keeps the potential
for heavy rainfall going through at least Saturday, with WPC
outlooking the area for a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall once
again.  The highest chances should be over the south half of the
forecast area, although most areas should still see scattered
activity through Saturday.

By Sunday, the deepening upper trough northwest of the region should
begin to push a stronger cold front towards the area on Sunday.
Rainfall chances still remain on the higher side through the day
ahead of the front, and can not rule out a few stronger storms with
heavy rainfall along the front as it moves through.  Drier air then
begins moving in Sunday night into next week on the backside of the
frontal passage.  There should be a noticeable drop in dew points
with this front, and although highs will be mostly in the middle
80s, it should be a lot more bearable in regards to the afternoon
humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Continued northeast flow overnight may usher in another round of
ceiling restrictions after 06Z. Guidance is fairly optimistic
on restrictions tonight and Wednesday morning, keeping any
restrictions either away from the TAF sites or rather brief.
Although a pattern similar to the previous night seems more
likely with IFR/MVFR stratus building into the TAF sites during
the early morning hours. Given the low confidence forecast we
kept restrictions to MVFR with this TAF issuance but it is
possible that ceilings drop to IFR or LIFR tomorrow morning. Of
course AGS is liable to have its typical shallow fog issues. A
crossover temperature of only 75 today suggests AGS will have
visibility restrictions overnight. Any ceiling restrictions
could be slow to erode again on Wednesday but VFR conditions are
expected to return in the afternoon. The chance of rain
tomorrow is low due to subsidence from the tropical system to
the east.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chances of restrictions increase
Friday and over the weekend as deep moisture returns to the
region. Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$